Ok, now a lecture boys and girls.
Obviously our world right now is upside down and we're in situations we've never been before. In every catastrophe there are opportunities....they say the rich make the most money in the stock market by buying up everything after the crash. In March this year, the stock market plummeted when the market realized the extent of the pandemic. It's shot up like a rocket from the middle of April onwards.
When we're handicapping, we have to take into consideration a lot of variables, like travel, fatigue, different weather than what the players are used to, locational differences, time zone/bodyclock issues, etc.
When doing double blind studies, researchers take out as many variabilities as possible, because experience has shown that variables change the validity AND the results of the test results. Everyone is pretty much aware of that, except probably us as sports bettors.
Right now, the variables are almost non-existent in ice hockey, WNBA and to a lesser extent the NBA. Everyone is in the same location, no one has more fatigue than anyone else, (though NBA teams are playing with different amounts of rest), no one is traveling, no one is used to one climate and playing in another. The NHL for that matter is even better, because 3/4 of the teams are playing the same opponents over and over.
ISN'T THAT GREAT??!!
It's one of the best situations in our betting lives!
So, we should be paying attention to what is transpiring and having a decided advantage over the bookies.
I'll give you two examples.
In the WNBA, where basically half of the games each team has the same amount of rest, everyone is playing the same game number, playing in an arena they've been playing in for at least a couple of weeks. Everyone is familiar with the surroundings and basketball sometimes it can be difficult with different lighting etc., to be comfortable in certain arenas that you aren't used to.
The first two games of the season favorites went 6-6 ATS and OVERs went 8-3-1. It's common the first two games for OVERs to do well in the W,...however after that game numbers 3,4 and 5 typically have been UNDER predominate. So, we can look for that, but the amazing great thing about now in our betting world is we can verify how a trend is going by watching the first two games of the everyone's series of six games that transpires in the W this season.
Over/unders in game numbers 3, 4 and 5 went 1-5 , 0-5-1 and 1-5 the next three series of games. Has the bookmakers grabbed the clue?....nope, the totals have not gone down, and in fact they've increased. No one should be thinking about betting OVERs if we're paying attention, despite how we feel about the fundamental handicapping matchups. To validate what the trend is, we're watching the first two games of the series of six that happens in every round of the WNBA this season. At a minimum we're not bucking the trend and at a maximum we're attempting to ride the wave.
And let's face it too, the bookmakers don't care too much about the WNBA, the head bookmaker has hired his deadbeat son-in-law as an apprentice bookmaker and he has given him the job making lines for the WNBA, which we're liking A LOT.
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