Olympic Basketball - Wednesday

Question

YTD: 8-2Pending: Spain (Women&#x27;s) to win a medal &#x2B;137Ok so this is what the men&#x27;s looks like for tomorrow.Team efficiencies after Group games: (only including the final 8 teams here, hence why they numbers are not in order but this is what they are ranked out of all 12 countries who made the Olympics.1. USA 124.82. Australia 109.83. France 1044. Spain 102.45. Serbia 100.67.Croatia 898. Lithuania 87.69. Argentina 87.2USA/Argentina - winner plays either France/SpainAustralia/Lituania - winner plays either Croatia/Serbia.Now, my books is offering the following odds to win a medalAustralia &#x2B;101Spain &#x2B;101Serbia &#x2B;140Croatia &#x2B;260Lithuania &#x2B;260France &#x2B;400Argentina &#x2B;1400Lets face it, USA are going to win their side of the playoff tree and they have Argentina, France and Spain in the mix. Argentina can be put to the side, then you have France/Spain. If we were to bet either of these 2 teams, you are risky it on one game, the Bronze game. They won&#x27;t make the final as they have to play the USA in the semis. The other playoff bracket is very interesting because you get a 2nd chance (like the womens bracket) with Australia, Serbia, Lithuania and Croatia if they get past the quarters and into the semis. Now the Aussies take on Lithuania and current line is -4.5The Serbians take on Croatia and line is -5.5In the group stage, Lithuania has good wins vs Brazil, Nigeria and Argentina. Argentina their biggest scalp.Aussies had a great group stage only falling short to the USA team and winning the rest. France IMHO was their biggest win..Croatia&#x27;s biggest win during group stage was most likely Spain. As for Serbia, they were pretty poor and only won 2 against very weak teams in China and Venezuela. They played very well vs USA but poor against France and Australia. The biggest value for me is Australia at pretty much doubling your money. They are ranked 2nd in efficiency and their opponent tomorrow (Lithuania) ranks pretty low on efficiency as well as overall. The Serbians and Croatia are up there in efficienices but I think the Aussies boast too much talent not to win a medal and they are on the right side of the playoff tree. If they get past Lithuania in the quarters, they then face Serbia/Croatia. If they fail at the semi stage, they still get another chance to win Bronze vs either France/Spain. With the Aussies girls falling short today, I feel as though the Aussie Mens team will want to step up big time. Will make a decision a little later on as I want to do more research into H2H matches between countries..

AussieDownUnder · Answer

YTD: 8-2Pending: Spain (Women&#x27;s) to win a medal &#x2B;137Ok so this is what the men&#x27;s looks like for tomorrow.Team efficiencies after Group games: (only including the final 8 teams here, hence why they numbers are not in order but this is what they are ranked out of all 12 countries who made the Olympics.1. USA 124.82. Australia 109.83. France 1044. Spain 102.45. Serbia 100.67.Croatia 898. Lithuania 87.69. Argentina 87.2USA/Argentina - winner plays either France/SpainAustralia/Lituania - winner plays either Croatia/Serbia.Now, my books is offering the following odds to win a medalAustralia &#x2B;101Spain &#x2B;101Serbia &#x2B;140Croatia &#x2B;260Lithuania &#x2B;260France &#x2B;400Argentina &#x2B;1400Lets face it, USA are going to win their side of the playoff tree and they have Argentina, France and Spain in the mix. Argentina can be put to the side, then you have France/Spain. If we were to bet either of these 2 teams, you are risky it on one game, the Bronze game. They won&#x27;t make the final as they have to play the USA in the semis. The other playoff bracket is very interesting because you get a 2nd chance (like the womens bracket) with Australia, Serbia, Lithuania and Croatia if they get past the quarters and into the semis. Now the Aussies take on Lithuania and current line is -4.5The Serbians take on Croatia and line is -5.5In the group stage, Lithuania has good wins vs Brazil, Nigeria and Argentina. Argentina their biggest scalp.Aussies had a great group stage only falling short to the USA team and winning the rest. France IMHO was their biggest win..Croatia&#x27;s biggest win during group stage was most likely Spain. As for Serbia, they were pretty poor and only won 2 against very weak teams in China and Venezuela. They played very well vs USA but poor against France and Australia. The biggest value for me is Australia at pretty much doubling your money. They are ranked 2nd in efficiency and their opponent tomorrow (Lithuania) ranks pretty low on efficiency as well as overall. The Serbians and Croatia are up there in efficienices but I think the Aussies boast too much talent not to win a medal and they are on the right side of the playoff tree. If they get past Lithuania in the quarters, they then face Serbia/Croatia. If they fail at the semi stage, they still get another chance to win Bronze vs either France/Spain. With the Aussies girls falling short today, I feel as though the Aussie Mens team will want to step up big time. Will make a decision a little later on as I want to do more research into H2H matches between countries..

micalf · Answer

Why are the Aussies on 4 point favs

Tigers2013 · Answer

I think the Aussies get it done and win a medal.  They are playing with a belief and purpose to get the job done.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

I think because Lithuania has beaten the Aussies recently

AussieDownUnder · Answer

I agree Tigers and they have the squad to finally do it as well. Plenty of depth in most positions and these guys now have had plenty of NBA experience and some have had NBA playoff experience as well.

wgomel21 · Answer

Do we all agree that Australia and Spain win today? If so why not play money line parlay? Risking 100 pays you 155. Thoughts???

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Hmmmm, tough call Gomel.. I can&#x27;t say I agree as I think France/Spain matchup can really go anyway and the France do have the players to push Spain the whole game.

wgomel21 · Answer

Ok if there is doubt don&#x27;t want to go that route as Japan crushed me yesterday....So what do you suggest in The Aus/Lith game?

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Its very strange that the line is low but I think thats due to Lithuania being ranked 3rd in the world rankings but I don&#x27;t take that into consideration often when making plays because that obviously from past results from awhile ago compared to recent play. I think the play is Australia mate, but i will more than likely take them to get a medal instead as the odds are a little higher...

wgomel21 · Answer

Ok....one more question would you buy it down, or play -4, or play -170? Sorry for the nagging I just want to start the morning with the best well thought out play

wgomel21 · Answer

Well I thought it was the last question, do we have any strong trends on what team starts out fast/ slow? Yesterday you guys were right on target with Australia (w) starting out slow.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

All good buddy, we all want to start the day with a nice little addition to our bankroll. I am a big user of statistics, and seeing what the Aussies have done throughout the group stage was pretty amazing. Lithuania on the other hand were not impressive at all IMHO. The line is set low because Aussies ranked 11th and Lithuania 3rd in the world but it is clear when you look at the Olympics statitics that the Aussies have them in almost every statistic of the game. I know it always isn&#x27;t about statistics but this Aussie team is playing good ball and had the USA team on edge right up until the middle of the 4Q when Melo and his men took charge. My book has the Aussies at -3.5 right now so I you need to make a bet, then I would buy down to -4 just to be safe. I expect a slow start from the Aussies as its a big game for them but then I think they get into the groove 2H and come out strong.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Same as the women&#x27;s mate, Aussies to start slow (Lithuania might even have the lead at HT) and then they come out firing 2H.. Just my 2 cents

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Australian to win a medal &#x2B;100All stated above why I like this play a lot. Just like the Spanish women&#x27;s play, I get a double shot at it if they make the semi&#x27;s and lose that. But it could all go pear shape in a few hours time if Lithuania decide to show up and really put it to the Aussies..

boybawang · Answer

Mens Aus -4.5Spain -3.5Usa -22.5Croatia &#x2B;5

wgomel21 · Answer

Line just moved to 4.5...... Good luck guys....Go Australia

AussieDownUnder · Answer

GL buddy

AussieDownUnder · Answer

I am seeing Spain -5.5 and 134.5 right now in the Spain/Serbia Womens game and then the US are -25 and total is 152.5 vs France in the other semi final..

wgomel21 · Answer

Very nice fh up 18.....)

wgomel21 · Answer

Can&#x27;t get any easier than that 90-64......)

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Regardless of the Croatia outcome, you have had an amazing day again Boybawang

User592150 · Answer

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boybawang · Answer

Thanks aussie

boybawang · Answer

Croatia ML (3.00)

AussieDownUnder · Answer

I am not sure Ckattar about Serbia, they haven&#x27;t really done anything at all IMHO during this Olympics and seem to be one of those teams that plays up to their opposition and down as well to others. Only 2 wins in the group stage against China and Venezuela who were the worst teams this year..

Olympic Basketball - Wednesday

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