Let’s talk playoffs

Ok so the top 8 teams have got a few days rest before the action starts.

Some updated future odds

Aces +200
Sky +225
Sun +400
Storm +500
Mystics +1000
Wings +4000
Liberty +7000
Mercury +9000

So the books are absolutely loving the Aces and Sky. I think Sun, Storm and the Mystics all have a very good chance of surprising especially the Storm when they have Tina, Stewie, Bird and Loyd. 

Mercury @ Aces (reg series Aces 3-0)

No idea about Taurasi or Skylar and whether or not they are going to play against the Aces. If they don’t, Mercury won’t keep close as the first two games of the three game series are at LV. Hamby being out doesn’t help the Aces at all and I think they might feel her loss in the next series when they will play a title contender but for this series, it should be 2-0 Aces after 2. 

Mystics @ Storm (reg series Storm 2-1)

Mystics and Storm is by far the hardest to predict because Mystics D is legit and we have seen time and time again the Storm go through their scoring droughts in games. EDD is just a phenomenal player and Thibault has done a good job keeping her healthy this season. They will have to steal a game in Seattle but they definitely can do it IMHO

Dallas @ Sun (reg series, 2-1 Dallas)

Now Dallas is a cheeky outsider team and play a Sun team who don’t show up post season time. Dallas loving life without Arike and they need to keep this up. Mabrey, Gray, Thornton and McCowan have all stepped up and they just beat the Aces and the Sky consecutively last week. I don’t think Sun should take them lightly at all especially given how poor Millers girls have performed in previous playoff matches. Jonquel for me though is the one that can get them into the next round, if she shows up and taunts McCowan, no one will stop her. 

Liberty @ Sky (reg series Sky 3-1)

Sky showed own this series as well. They have Parker and Meesseman in the paint and they have the experience or CVS and Quigley along with Copper. Great depth off the bench as well and also they did this all last season so they know how to play composed basketball in the post season which I believe the Liberty will have no composure. They are eradicate at times, turnover galore and if they don’t hit their 3’s it’s almost all over. Ionescu is a freak no doubt (poor today against Dream) and they have some experience with Howard, Whitcomb and Allen but I just think the Sky knows how the play the Liberty and it should be 2-0 for the Sky after the first 2 games. I could be wrong, the Liberty might end up scoring 116 points like they did against the Aces two weeks ago but we all know reg season is completely different to playoffs. 

Good luck with the futures you’ve laid, I know Fazz has some good on the Sky. 

Alright, we have some lines…

Aces laying -14.5 and total at 167.5

Sun laying -10.5 and total at 163.5

Sky laying -6.5 and total at 164.5

Storm laying -4.5 and total at 158.5

Mystics/Storm series is a good one. Breanna and EDD are the 2 best players in the league IMO and it feels like both teams have a decent chance to beat LV. Mystics were 3-0 vs Aces in the reg season and Seattle started to look like a legit contender after picking up Tina Charles

Mystics could cover both games in Seattle ant yet lose both games SU.

I like the way EDD and company play a slower lower scoring game.  If they can get their game on its dog and under.  Obviously Seattle is going to fight against that.  I expect some scoring spurts and also the opposite.  The total being under 158 presents some over value, but that doesnt mean its going to be easy. 

The only game 1 Favorite I like is Vegas.  playoff games when the line is <=-11 are 5-1 to the favorites.  Not many games but it follows the best of the best.   Vegas is making the finals IMO, so I want them to start hot and finish cold,

Liberty ( I mostly watched towards the end of the season. Even last year they were not playing their big 3 together.  Now they have all of them healthy and ready to go!  One of the best coaches and getting points.  Pretty good situation here  for the dog.  The Sky were favorites only 3 times last post-season, They covered all 3 but none of those lines were as high as -6.  Sky were a great dog team last year.  They wont be dogs as much this season!

Connecticut finished on fire! Now the books have placed a heavy tag on them laying -10.5. A few big injuries in this matchup so well see how this plays out.  My opinion Dallas at these prices.

All dogs ATS Except Vegas in Round one.  

@ThaFazz

 That is a nice stat Fazz, didn’t look into the Mystics against the Aces this season. Aces only lost 10 games all season and 3 against the Mystics so that is very interesting. Good call out buddy 

@spottie2935

 Good analysis Spottie. Only issue I have with the Liberty is their scoring droughts. Time and time again we have seen them go scoreless for 4+ mins and not sure if Howard is going to be able to stop Meesseman and Parker. Tough ask especially given their experience in big games. 

With the current line of +7.5 and the health of the Liberty at present.  Brondello's experience will add something here. 

Sky last season in the playoffs were only favored 3 times.  2 of those were on home court in the Finals.  They play great but are facing much tougher lines.

@spottie2935

 I'm coming into these playoffs with a +30000 Liberty ticket lol so I'm all aboard

@AussieDownUnder

 Haven't looked too much into those previous games yet but if I recall correctly, the Mystics were attempting and making more 3s than typical—but that can obviously be attributed to the Aces's defense giving them good looks. The possible second round matchup would be fascinating tho because the Aces's defense has rlly begun to lock in again just like how they started the reason

@AussieDownUnder

 Yea the lack of a reliable driving threat/interior pressure is brutal sometimes. Howard is also prone to such silly TOs which is just infuriating. Hopefully MJ/Whitcomb can get hot a couple of games.

And I just remembered that in the last b2b of Liberty/Sky matchup, the first game the Sky were missing Vandersloot and while she returned in the second game, Parker missed that one

@spottie2935

 Definitely have the coaching experience and the talent, let’s see if they can put it all together against the Champs. Sabrina needs to come out frustrated after her poor game against Atlanta. Lucky for her Johannes was hot from down town 

@Anker101

 Howard definitely frustrating to watch at times and you’re right, her turnovers are silly at times and costly as well. She may find it hard up against Parker and Meesseman and I don’t know if Dolson can help much. Dolson though knows Wades game plan for the postseason so she can definitely help out Brondello with certain pointers to look out for. 

I have a strong lean on the Liberty but no pregame bet.  I think I can get a better line in-game. Of course I will have to take on more juice.  Best wishes 

Took some Liberty +9.5