More excited about tomorrow's games, but that will have to wait.
No EDD tonight. So far this season, Washington is 3-3 without EDD and won at home by 2 against Chicago with her playing only 7 minutes. The average margin of victory in those 6 games was a little over a point. Two of those wins (the biggest) were in Minnesota by 12 and 16. The only other win without any EDD was a 5 point victory in Atlanta. This victory looked more impressive then than it does now as Atlanta now sits at 7-7. I was of the belief that Washington was very comfortable playing without her but the stats from this season tell a different story. Time to adjust, me thinks. They might be okay against weaker competition but without EDD they lost by 9 @ Chicago, by 8 @ Connecticut and by 9 to Phoenix on their home floor. Sure, the Liberty are 5-9 but they were a 3 pt buzzer beater away from beating the defending champs last time out which would have them at 6-8. Not only that, but this team is playing much better ball of late. Since the start of June, NY is 4-2. Granted, the competition hasn't been great with two dd wins over the Fever and another against Minnesota but they did win by 4 in Washington (Clark - DNP) and the loss against Chicago, as we said, was incredibly close. Losing to the Lynx was rough but that was a great spot for Minnesota. I covered it in my post on the 5th. Not going to repeat here but basically Lynx really needed a get right game, had revenge on their mind and took advantage of a tired Liberty team on a high returning from their win in Washington.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
27-35 -3.45
MYSTICS@LIBERTY
More excited about tomorrow's games, but that will have to wait.
No EDD tonight. So far this season, Washington is 3-3 without EDD and won at home by 2 against Chicago with her playing only 7 minutes. The average margin of victory in those 6 games was a little over a point. Two of those wins (the biggest) were in Minnesota by 12 and 16. The only other win without any EDD was a 5 point victory in Atlanta. This victory looked more impressive then than it does now as Atlanta now sits at 7-7. I was of the belief that Washington was very comfortable playing without her but the stats from this season tell a different story. Time to adjust, me thinks. They might be okay against weaker competition but without EDD they lost by 9 @ Chicago, by 8 @ Connecticut and by 9 to Phoenix on their home floor. Sure, the Liberty are 5-9 but they were a 3 pt buzzer beater away from beating the defending champs last time out which would have them at 6-8. Not only that, but this team is playing much better ball of late. Since the start of June, NY is 4-2. Granted, the competition hasn't been great with two dd wins over the Fever and another against Minnesota but they did win by 4 in Washington (Clark - DNP) and the loss against Chicago, as we said, was incredibly close. Losing to the Lynx was rough but that was a great spot for Minnesota. I covered it in my post on the 5th. Not going to repeat here but basically Lynx really needed a get right game, had revenge on their mind and took advantage of a tired Liberty team on a high returning from their win in Washington.
I will be honest, when I first saw this line I was confused and when I realized EDD was out I was even more confused. In the last two weeks, I have watched the Liberty rise to a bunch of challenges. Washington? Not so much. They started the month by losing to this squad which only had two wins at the time. It was a look ahead spot for them but honestly they looked awful. They split two games with Chicago which is solid but practically gave up that second game. They also let a 4 win Mercury team come to town and win in OT. To put it simply, the Liberty have been impressive and I just don't feel the same way about this Washington team. So what gives? Well the line is down to 4 and that's where I took it. To be fair, we do have a 10-6 team visiting a 5-9 team. That 10-6 team is also 5-2 on the road which is a strong number. Then again, wins against Lynx (x2), Wings, Dream, and Fever. They also split that series with Dallas and the win on the road was the revenge spot. Anyway, I am seeing reports of 60%+ on the Washington side so obviously this line isn't as ridiculous as I thought.
I know cappers who refuse to watch games because they think it influences them too much and in the wrongs ways. That ain't me dawg. I believe in the eye test and I trust my peepers. New York passes the eye test for me. A team that once looked devoid of options now has a very solid lineup all the way down the roster. Rebecca Allen probably won't play tonight (probably impacting the line just by name) but I don't think NY will really miss her. First of all, she's played 8 minutes in the last two games where they won by 14 in Indiana and almost beat the Sky. Second, there are so many other players on this team playing well right now. Ionescu is a stud. You shouldn't need me to tell you that. Howard has been solid all season but is coming off her first single digit scoring game since may 17th against the Sun. Even in that game, she still shot 4/8 but it was an ugly blowout loss and she didn't play much in the second half. In this last game against Chicago, she was 4/16 and 0/4 from 3. Considering how that game ended, a modest game from Howard likely gets them the win. I am expecting a big bounce back for this team after the frustrating loss and that is especially true of the veteran Howard. Who else? Dolson is back up to 20+ minutes and contributing. She had a little extra for her former teammates last time out and probably regresses a bit today but Liberty have the depth. Xu continues to be efficient AF. Her last 4 games: 9 and 5 on 4/5 in 23 minutes, 15 and 5 on 6/12 in 25 minutes, 16 and 5 on 6/8 in 15 minutes, 10 and 2 in 21 minutes on 4/8. Crystal's numbers won't wow you but having another ball handler out there with Sabrina is what really allows that star to shine. She also isn't hurting the team with 1 or less turnovers in 5 of her 6 games in June. Sami has broken out of the shooting slump and has hit 3 threes in 4 of her last 5 games. 12/28 in those games (42.85%). Oh, and then Johannes who has played the last two games and appears to be a wonderful glue piece. Her pass to Dolson for 3 against Chicago was nuts and she's had plenty of other great plays in just two games. The box score won't jump off the page but she defends, she scores, she can handle the ball, she has vision, she can pass... She's not a super star by any means but these types of players win you games.
I will be honest, when I first saw this line I was confused and when I realized EDD was out I was even more confused. In the last two weeks, I have watched the Liberty rise to a bunch of challenges. Washington? Not so much. They started the month by losing to this squad which only had two wins at the time. It was a look ahead spot for them but honestly they looked awful. They split two games with Chicago which is solid but practically gave up that second game. They also let a 4 win Mercury team come to town and win in OT. To put it simply, the Liberty have been impressive and I just don't feel the same way about this Washington team. So what gives? Well the line is down to 4 and that's where I took it. To be fair, we do have a 10-6 team visiting a 5-9 team. That 10-6 team is also 5-2 on the road which is a strong number. Then again, wins against Lynx (x2), Wings, Dream, and Fever. They also split that series with Dallas and the win on the road was the revenge spot. Anyway, I am seeing reports of 60%+ on the Washington side so obviously this line isn't as ridiculous as I thought.
I know cappers who refuse to watch games because they think it influences them too much and in the wrongs ways. That ain't me dawg. I believe in the eye test and I trust my peepers. New York passes the eye test for me. A team that once looked devoid of options now has a very solid lineup all the way down the roster. Rebecca Allen probably won't play tonight (probably impacting the line just by name) but I don't think NY will really miss her. First of all, she's played 8 minutes in the last two games where they won by 14 in Indiana and almost beat the Sky. Second, there are so many other players on this team playing well right now. Ionescu is a stud. You shouldn't need me to tell you that. Howard has been solid all season but is coming off her first single digit scoring game since may 17th against the Sun. Even in that game, she still shot 4/8 but it was an ugly blowout loss and she didn't play much in the second half. In this last game against Chicago, she was 4/16 and 0/4 from 3. Considering how that game ended, a modest game from Howard likely gets them the win. I am expecting a big bounce back for this team after the frustrating loss and that is especially true of the veteran Howard. Who else? Dolson is back up to 20+ minutes and contributing. She had a little extra for her former teammates last time out and probably regresses a bit today but Liberty have the depth. Xu continues to be efficient AF. Her last 4 games: 9 and 5 on 4/5 in 23 minutes, 15 and 5 on 6/12 in 25 minutes, 16 and 5 on 6/8 in 15 minutes, 10 and 2 in 21 minutes on 4/8. Crystal's numbers won't wow you but having another ball handler out there with Sabrina is what really allows that star to shine. She also isn't hurting the team with 1 or less turnovers in 5 of her 6 games in June. Sami has broken out of the shooting slump and has hit 3 threes in 4 of her last 5 games. 12/28 in those games (42.85%). Oh, and then Johannes who has played the last two games and appears to be a wonderful glue piece. Her pass to Dolson for 3 against Chicago was nuts and she's had plenty of other great plays in just two games. The box score won't jump off the page but she defends, she scores, she can handle the ball, she has vision, she can pass... She's not a super star by any means but these types of players win you games.
Touched on the schedule briefly but I will revisit quickly. 4 days ago Washington lost to PHX in OT. 2 days ago they got revenge. In the same time, New York beat up on the Fever in Indy and then barely lost to Chicago at home. So the rest is the same and the travel is similar. Washington is in a revenge spot but I think the Liberty disappointment from the last game is stronger, especially with the Mystics coming in off successful revenge. They also head back home after this one to host the Sun which is a much bigger game by record and also holds revenge for Washington. In fairness, Liberty also have a revenge game coming down the line after this against Seattle but you don't look past a 10-6 team, at least I don't expect them to.
Ok I'm almost done. Just wanna share one more set of numbers which sealed it for me today. Liberty opponents average just over 13 fast break points per game and that is the most for a team in the W. The Washington Mystics average 6.7 fast break points were game which is also the worst in the W. I think the Liberty stat looks worse than it should because of their really rough start to the season and even if it is still a weakness for them I do not expect Washington to be able to exploit it very much. As long as the Liberty can limit their turnovers, they should pick up another win tonight and secure the season series against the Mystics (great measuring stick for a team trying to climb).
WAS Mystics @ NY Liberty +4 (-110) 4U
WAS Mystics @ NY Liberty ML (+155) 1U
CANT WAIT FOR THE SEA@CON LINE :)
Touched on the schedule briefly but I will revisit quickly. 4 days ago Washington lost to PHX in OT. 2 days ago they got revenge. In the same time, New York beat up on the Fever in Indy and then barely lost to Chicago at home. So the rest is the same and the travel is similar. Washington is in a revenge spot but I think the Liberty disappointment from the last game is stronger, especially with the Mystics coming in off successful revenge. They also head back home after this one to host the Sun which is a much bigger game by record and also holds revenge for Washington. In fairness, Liberty also have a revenge game coming down the line after this against Seattle but you don't look past a 10-6 team, at least I don't expect them to.
Ok I'm almost done. Just wanna share one more set of numbers which sealed it for me today. Liberty opponents average just over 13 fast break points per game and that is the most for a team in the W. The Washington Mystics average 6.7 fast break points were game which is also the worst in the W. I think the Liberty stat looks worse than it should because of their really rough start to the season and even if it is still a weakness for them I do not expect Washington to be able to exploit it very much. As long as the Liberty can limit their turnovers, they should pick up another win tonight and secure the season series against the Mystics (great measuring stick for a team trying to climb).
BOL tonight. 
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