2-0 yesterday and more importantly things went as expected for the most part. Ionescu continued to crush, Dolson scored a couple baskets in 15 minutes and did not hurt the team, Xu went 15 and 5 in 25 minutes, Allen got back on track with 13pts and 4/7 from 3, Crystal chipped in with 5 and 5. Even Sami broke out of the slump a bit and played with great energy. Three bench players played 21 minutes or more. A strong team effort. On the other side we saw everybody come back to earth. Powers was 3/12, Banham 0/6, and so on and so forth. We never complain about wins but when it plays out the way we expected, it feels that much better.
Same for Seattle. They made it interesting, still squandering large leads late into the game, but when it came time to really buckle down they got it done. Whenever Seattle was intentional with their halfcourt offense and was able to score, the lead grew. When they couldn't score that's when Atlanta got out and ran and closed the gap. Atlanta had 4 less turnovers, 12 more points in the paint, 3 more second chance points, 3 more fast break points, 7 more points off turnovers, 6 more rebounds, 3 more offensive rebounds, 5 more steals AND STILL lost by 12. If that doesn't sound insane to you then read it again. The Seattle defense is solid but what this really tells me is how much Atlanta struggles to score when they are not getting stops.
Enough about yesterday.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
19-21 +7.85U
2-0 yesterday and more importantly things went as expected for the most part. Ionescu continued to crush, Dolson scored a couple baskets in 15 minutes and did not hurt the team, Xu went 15 and 5 in 25 minutes, Allen got back on track with 13pts and 4/7 from 3, Crystal chipped in with 5 and 5. Even Sami broke out of the slump a bit and played with great energy. Three bench players played 21 minutes or more. A strong team effort. On the other side we saw everybody come back to earth. Powers was 3/12, Banham 0/6, and so on and so forth. We never complain about wins but when it plays out the way we expected, it feels that much better.
Same for Seattle. They made it interesting, still squandering large leads late into the game, but when it came time to really buckle down they got it done. Whenever Seattle was intentional with their halfcourt offense and was able to score, the lead grew. When they couldn't score that's when Atlanta got out and ran and closed the gap. Atlanta had 4 less turnovers, 12 more points in the paint, 3 more second chance points, 3 more fast break points, 7 more points off turnovers, 6 more rebounds, 3 more offensive rebounds, 5 more steals AND STILL lost by 12. If that doesn't sound insane to you then read it again. The Seattle defense is solid but what this really tells me is how much Atlanta struggles to score when they are not getting stops.
Sun lead the season series 2-0. Back to back victories at home on the 20th and in Indy on the 22nd. The first was a 85-94 final in which Nalyssa Smith did not play. 4 of the 5 Indy starters in that game shot 50% or better and Kelsey lead the team with 23 and 5. Sun were at full strength in that one. The next game Sun were without Bonner and lost Jasmine Thomas for the season 8 minutes in. Once again, Indiana was without Smith and this time they just could not match the urgency and energy of the Sun. 92-70 final.
From what I have seen, both teams are at full strength today. No Jasmine Thomas, obviously, but it's not worth noting every game. Connecticut has transitioned very well into a life without her.
The Fever played so poorly in their last game and I know I am not the only one that feels this way. Kelsey Mitchel spoke out quite a bit after that loss and called the team out. You can read more here: https://www.swishappeal.com/wnba/2022/6/6/23155882/wnba-indiana-fever-kelsey-mitchell-carlos-knox-atlanta-dream-third-quarter-quarters-turnovers
Is the Fever season over? Probably. Ya, it's still early but since Knox took over they are just 1-3 and have lost 3 straight. I am worried that this team's goal will soon become less about winning games and more about just developing for next year. This doesn't mean that they will cease to be competitive but when you're placing money on a team, you do want to be sure that they care about the result. Kelsey calling them out like this tells me they haven't reached that point yet. Indiana sits alone at the bottom of the league with a record of 3-10. Connecticut trails the league leading Aces by 1 game. This is certainly a mismatch on paper but, as a few have already pointed out, this is a great spot for the dog to do some barking. For those wondering, the spread in Connecticut on the 20th was between 13 and 16. In Indiana it was more like 12/13. Sometimes when a line looks crazy high it feels like the books are saying something. It felt that way a bit with Seattle yesterday. You kind of had to be a bit crazy to take them to cover that number after how they had been playing and giving up leads. When I first saw this huge number, I figured it was begging for Fever money and maybe that is the case but the bets look to be split 50/50 so far. Whatever the case, I am just glad to see that there isn't overwhelming support for Indiana even with the large number.
Sun last 5 games have all ended within single digits, win or lose. In the previous 7 games, they were 5-2 and the average margin of victory in those wins is just over 21 points. The only victory by less than 17 points in that time was the 9 point win vs Fever. My point is simply that this line makes sense and doesn't scream blow out to me.
FEVER@SUN
Sun lead the season series 2-0. Back to back victories at home on the 20th and in Indy on the 22nd. The first was a 85-94 final in which Nalyssa Smith did not play. 4 of the 5 Indy starters in that game shot 50% or better and Kelsey lead the team with 23 and 5. Sun were at full strength in that one. The next game Sun were without Bonner and lost Jasmine Thomas for the season 8 minutes in. Once again, Indiana was without Smith and this time they just could not match the urgency and energy of the Sun. 92-70 final.
From what I have seen, both teams are at full strength today. No Jasmine Thomas, obviously, but it's not worth noting every game. Connecticut has transitioned very well into a life without her.
The Fever played so poorly in their last game and I know I am not the only one that feels this way. Kelsey Mitchel spoke out quite a bit after that loss and called the team out. You can read more here: https://www.swishappeal.com/wnba/2022/6/6/23155882/wnba-indiana-fever-kelsey-mitchell-carlos-knox-atlanta-dream-third-quarter-quarters-turnovers
Is the Fever season over? Probably. Ya, it's still early but since Knox took over they are just 1-3 and have lost 3 straight. I am worried that this team's goal will soon become less about winning games and more about just developing for next year. This doesn't mean that they will cease to be competitive but when you're placing money on a team, you do want to be sure that they care about the result. Kelsey calling them out like this tells me they haven't reached that point yet. Indiana sits alone at the bottom of the league with a record of 3-10. Connecticut trails the league leading Aces by 1 game. This is certainly a mismatch on paper but, as a few have already pointed out, this is a great spot for the dog to do some barking. For those wondering, the spread in Connecticut on the 20th was between 13 and 16. In Indiana it was more like 12/13. Sometimes when a line looks crazy high it feels like the books are saying something. It felt that way a bit with Seattle yesterday. You kind of had to be a bit crazy to take them to cover that number after how they had been playing and giving up leads. When I first saw this huge number, I figured it was begging for Fever money and maybe that is the case but the bets look to be split 50/50 so far. Whatever the case, I am just glad to see that there isn't overwhelming support for Indiana even with the large number.
Sun last 5 games have all ended within single digits, win or lose. In the previous 7 games, they were 5-2 and the average margin of victory in those wins is just over 21 points. The only victory by less than 17 points in that time was the 9 point win vs Fever. My point is simply that this line makes sense and doesn't scream blow out to me.
Let's look at the Sun first. Honestly, it's been kind of a crazy stretch for them since the last meeting with IND. Three straight games at home where they split with Dallas and then played a competitive game against Washington without Clark or EDD that they won by just 8. Although they came away with the W, they did not cover the spread in this game and revealed some of their weaknesses. The Sun get a lot of their offense by controlling the boards. Their o rebound numbers are not just incredible for this season but historic for this league. Obviously size, scheme, and talent play a role but it's also the consistent effort. The Sun just weren't focused in that game because Washington was missing two stars but also because they were looking forward to two straight games in LV that would follow this visit from the Mystics. Sun got the split in LV, winning the second game and then travelling to PHX the very next day in a let down spot. Again, they pulled out the W but did not even cover the early 4.5 spread before Tina Charles was announced out. Against Seattle they were clearly feeling tired but again they pulled out the W by digging deep in the second half. They fought back from 13 down on the road and simply took control in the 4th by dominating the boards and the paint. This team looks great right now and they should be riding an emotional high from that 3-1 road trip that may have started with a loss but concluded with 3 hard fought wins. Tonight they are in another look ahead spot as they will host the defending champs on Friday. With Chicago coming to town so soon and this being their first shot at the defending champs, I definitely see the Sun looking ahead to this game just like they did with the Aces. They will also get a 4 night break after that Chicago game. Fever aren't missing players like Washington was (as far as I know) but with two wins already against this 3-10 team there is still plenty of reason for the Sun to overlook them. Sun were on the road for a week and played no easy games during that stretch. They've had two nights of rest, same as the Fever coming into this one but have played four games since (and including) the 31st compared to the Fever's three. More to the point is that these have been tough games on the road. Not only might they not be the most focused for this matchup tonight, they will likely try to steal some minutes with bench players and keep the starters fresh for Friday.
This is where I hope the Indiana style of play helps us. Fastest pace in the league. We know Connecticut can run but I don't think they will want to tonight. Can the Fever make them uncomfortable? I hope so. My biggest concern is that the Fever have been making tons of mistakes while playing at high speeds. They had 21 turnovers in their last game. They average 16.5 turnovers per game which is 10th out of 12. CON averages 9.4 steals per game which is 1st in the league. If Indiana cannot take care of the ball tonight, Sun will cover this number easily. The most encouraging stat comparison for the Fever comes on the boards. Rebounds are pretty even, 35.1@35.8 and IND actually has the edge in o boards and leads the league in that stat 10.8@10.4. Fever might not win this battle but we just need them to compete and the season numbers tell me they are capable.
Let's look at the Sun first. Honestly, it's been kind of a crazy stretch for them since the last meeting with IND. Three straight games at home where they split with Dallas and then played a competitive game against Washington without Clark or EDD that they won by just 8. Although they came away with the W, they did not cover the spread in this game and revealed some of their weaknesses. The Sun get a lot of their offense by controlling the boards. Their o rebound numbers are not just incredible for this season but historic for this league. Obviously size, scheme, and talent play a role but it's also the consistent effort. The Sun just weren't focused in that game because Washington was missing two stars but also because they were looking forward to two straight games in LV that would follow this visit from the Mystics. Sun got the split in LV, winning the second game and then travelling to PHX the very next day in a let down spot. Again, they pulled out the W but did not even cover the early 4.5 spread before Tina Charles was announced out. Against Seattle they were clearly feeling tired but again they pulled out the W by digging deep in the second half. They fought back from 13 down on the road and simply took control in the 4th by dominating the boards and the paint. This team looks great right now and they should be riding an emotional high from that 3-1 road trip that may have started with a loss but concluded with 3 hard fought wins. Tonight they are in another look ahead spot as they will host the defending champs on Friday. With Chicago coming to town so soon and this being their first shot at the defending champs, I definitely see the Sun looking ahead to this game just like they did with the Aces. They will also get a 4 night break after that Chicago game. Fever aren't missing players like Washington was (as far as I know) but with two wins already against this 3-10 team there is still plenty of reason for the Sun to overlook them. Sun were on the road for a week and played no easy games during that stretch. They've had two nights of rest, same as the Fever coming into this one but have played four games since (and including) the 31st compared to the Fever's three. More to the point is that these have been tough games on the road. Not only might they not be the most focused for this matchup tonight, they will likely try to steal some minutes with bench players and keep the starters fresh for Friday.
This is where I hope the Indiana style of play helps us. Fastest pace in the league. We know Connecticut can run but I don't think they will want to tonight. Can the Fever make them uncomfortable? I hope so. My biggest concern is that the Fever have been making tons of mistakes while playing at high speeds. They had 21 turnovers in their last game. They average 16.5 turnovers per game which is 10th out of 12. CON averages 9.4 steals per game which is 1st in the league. If Indiana cannot take care of the ball tonight, Sun will cover this number easily. The most encouraging stat comparison for the Fever comes on the boards. Rebounds are pretty even, 35.1@35.8 and IND actually has the edge in o boards and leads the league in that stat 10.8@10.4. Fever might not win this battle but we just need them to compete and the season numbers tell me they are capable.
Since winning in Knox's first game, the Fever have lost by 12 at home against a Clark-less Washington, lost in NY by 13 to a Liberty team that was 1-7 and on a 7 game losing streak and then lost in Atlanta most recently by 9 points with Kelsey Mitchell shooting 7/14 and the rest of the team shooting 16/52 (under 31%). Yes, this is the worst shooting team in the league by numbers but they still average 40% from the field and the 3 point shooting is middle of the pack or better. They have the third leading scorer in the league on their team and she just called them all out. I expect maximum effort tonight as well as some positive shooting regression. Teams that are behind on Pythagorean wins are good sides to back in general and the Fever "should" have 4 wins, not 3.
Yes, the Fever have a revenge game hosting NY coming up but that series is tied 1-1 and they are in no position to be looking forward. Maybe we see them give up early and look forward to that game if things get ugly in the first half but in general it's the third quarter that has been killing Indiana and Mitchell even mentioned this. I was originally looking to back the Fever in that NY game but the way things are developing I am much more likely to side with NY in that game and will like it more if I see a strong effort and a good result for the Fever tonight.
I'm not betting on the Fever to shutdown the Sun. Their defense kept them in the game against Atlanta but tonight they will need to score to stay in the game. Probably a strong correlation parlay available in this one. SUN cover and UNDER or FEVER cover and OVER. I'll be on the latter.
IND Fever +15.5 @ CON Sun (-110) 4U
IND Fever ML @ CON Sun (+800) 1U
IND Fever @ CON Sun OVER 165.0 (-110) 1U
Since winning in Knox's first game, the Fever have lost by 12 at home against a Clark-less Washington, lost in NY by 13 to a Liberty team that was 1-7 and on a 7 game losing streak and then lost in Atlanta most recently by 9 points with Kelsey Mitchell shooting 7/14 and the rest of the team shooting 16/52 (under 31%). Yes, this is the worst shooting team in the league by numbers but they still average 40% from the field and the 3 point shooting is middle of the pack or better. They have the third leading scorer in the league on their team and she just called them all out. I expect maximum effort tonight as well as some positive shooting regression. Teams that are behind on Pythagorean wins are good sides to back in general and the Fever "should" have 4 wins, not 3.
Yes, the Fever have a revenge game hosting NY coming up but that series is tied 1-1 and they are in no position to be looking forward. Maybe we see them give up early and look forward to that game if things get ugly in the first half but in general it's the third quarter that has been killing Indiana and Mitchell even mentioned this. I was originally looking to back the Fever in that NY game but the way things are developing I am much more likely to side with NY in that game and will like it more if I see a strong effort and a good result for the Fever tonight.
I'm not betting on the Fever to shutdown the Sun. Their defense kept them in the game against Atlanta but tonight they will need to score to stay in the game. Probably a strong correlation parlay available in this one. SUN cover and UNDER or FEVER cover and OVER. I'll be on the latter.
Sky lead the season series 2-0 and tonight is the 3rd and final game for these two. Both teams have 7 wins so far this season but the Mystics have 2 more losses and are tied with Atlanta at 7-5. Two straight losses for Washington has them in this position and 3 would obviously see them fall further. No Clark in the first game and no EDD in the game on Sunday. Washington should be at full strength tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep and pick up a win against the defending champs. EDD was resting so I don't worry about the first game back. Second game back for Clark. I think Washington comes into this one feeling confident despite being down 2-0 and having lost two in a row.
For the Sky, they just beat this team and have beaten them twice in the last two weeks. They have already won the season series. This is the start of a 3 game road trip for Chicago which will take them to Connecticut after this game in Washington. We already talked about the Sun looking forward to this game. With how they've been playing, I'm sure they are on Chicago's radar as well. I'm not going to say that Chicago is overlooking Washington tonight but I think they are more excited to play the Sun. Whatever the case, I don't expect a team like Washington to get swept in the season series and given the recent play and season series to date we get a pretty reasonable line. Chicago isn't considerably better than Washington in any category. Maybe rebounding but Washington more than evens that score with their 3pt%. Washington has pride, ability, and health on their side tonight.
I am still of the feeling that defense wins championships. If you want to beat the champs, you need to play defense. I think the focus for Washington tonight will be on defense and they have plenty of tape for the game plan at this point. Nobody played more than 22 minutes last time out for Washington. Everyone should have energy for both ends.
CHI Sky @ WAS Mystics -3.5 (-110) 3U
CHI Sky @ WAS Mystics UNDER 156.0 (-110) 1U
SKY@MYSTICS
Sky lead the season series 2-0 and tonight is the 3rd and final game for these two. Both teams have 7 wins so far this season but the Mystics have 2 more losses and are tied with Atlanta at 7-5. Two straight losses for Washington has them in this position and 3 would obviously see them fall further. No Clark in the first game and no EDD in the game on Sunday. Washington should be at full strength tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep and pick up a win against the defending champs. EDD was resting so I don't worry about the first game back. Second game back for Clark. I think Washington comes into this one feeling confident despite being down 2-0 and having lost two in a row.
For the Sky, they just beat this team and have beaten them twice in the last two weeks. They have already won the season series. This is the start of a 3 game road trip for Chicago which will take them to Connecticut after this game in Washington. We already talked about the Sun looking forward to this game. With how they've been playing, I'm sure they are on Chicago's radar as well. I'm not going to say that Chicago is overlooking Washington tonight but I think they are more excited to play the Sun. Whatever the case, I don't expect a team like Washington to get swept in the season series and given the recent play and season series to date we get a pretty reasonable line. Chicago isn't considerably better than Washington in any category. Maybe rebounding but Washington more than evens that score with their 3pt%. Washington has pride, ability, and health on their side tonight.
I am still of the feeling that defense wins championships. If you want to beat the champs, you need to play defense. I think the focus for Washington tonight will be on defense and they have plenty of tape for the game plan at this point. Nobody played more than 22 minutes last time out for Washington. Everyone should have energy for both ends.
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