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How to hit 70% (or better) in MLB using Teamrankings.com

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Posted: #776

GAME 3 DAY GAME 3 DAY GAME 3 DAY

My mistake, KC/TX; TOR/CWS; and BAL/MIN are 4 game series we wont count them....and DET/CLE arent playin 3 games now.

TB/OAK; G team won game 1, L team won game 2; TB WINS !!!

LAA/SEA; G game1; G won game 2; already followed trend

NYY/BOS; G game 1; G won game 2; already followed trend

FLA/WAS; G game 1; L game 2; FLA to win game 3 (prediction)

ATL/PHI; G game 1; L game 2; PHI to win game 3 (prediction)

STL/PIT; G game 1; L game 2; STL to win game 3 (prediction)

CHC/CIN; L game 1; Even game 2; will not predict game 3

SF/NYM; even ranking game1;  will not predict game 3

SD/HOU; G game 1; G game 2; already followed the trend

MIL/AZ; L game 1; Ggame 2; AZ to win game 3 (prediction)

COL/LAD; L game 1; L game 2;  already followed the trend

9 games; 80% trend should have 7-2 record 4 already won so if you took the remaining 5 games 3 should follow the trend; (the LGL or GLG trend happens 60% of the time so far this season which is better than average.)

TB; PHI; STL; and FLA are all good teams  AZ is spotty at best  hmmmmmm   I wish i didnt leave all my shit at work to go back and look at some more stuff...wanna trend Home vs Away and stuff to add to this.

Leans on TX, COL

 

 
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Posted: #777
Quote Originally Posted by MrArmageddon:

Going off this, the only series worth looking at that starts Monday is Tampa @ LAA. 108-99.4= 8.6

Garza vs. Piniero in game 1
Niemann vs. Kazmir in game 2
Price vs. TBA in game 3

Definitely tracking this topic...


You might want to read this thread from the beginning........
 
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Posted: #778
Quote Originally Posted by chiro111:

GOOD WORK MEN.

? I'M NEW  HERE- THE SPORTS BOOK I PLAY AT HAS -1&1/2 LINE.

IS IT AN ALLOWABLE ? TO ASK WHAT BOOKS YOU ALL USE ?



This is an explanation of getting a -1 line:

 I'm playing a combo to make the spread -1.  This way I don't have to worry about losing money to the 1/2 run on the RL but can still increase the ML payout a bit.  You need to bet enough on the ML so that your winnings will cover your bet on the RL.  This way, if the team you picked wins by 1, it'll be a push as far as your money is concerned.

For example, on my book the SD ML is -125 and the RL is +125.  Let's say you wanted to bet $100 on the game.  You need to place enough on the ML so that the money you win = $100.  In this case, you bet $55 on the ML to win $44.  Then you take the remaining $45 and bet it on the RL (which makes this bet even money).

In this scenario, you're protected if SD wins by 1 run because you'll win your ML bet & that'll cover the money you lost on the RL bet.  You break even, as opposed to betting on the RL and losing it all on that 1/2 run.
 
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Posted: #779
                                                                    WHIP /Strk/Advantage
TOR: 104.7  L  Romero, R (3-1, 3.00 ERA)  1.07      L1   +5.6   
CWS: 99.1 R   Floyd, G (1-3, 6.89 ERA)        1.81     W1

BAL: 98.2    L  Matusz (2-2, 3.93 ERA)            1.36     L1      
MIN:  101.1 R  Blackburn (2-1, 5.79 ERA)        1.62   W1   +2.9

TB: 108.0    R Shields,J (4-0, 3.15 ERA)         1.30      L1   +6.4   
OAK: 101.6  L Braden (3-2, 4.14 ERA)           1.19     W1

SD: 101.1    R Correia (4-2, 3.97 ERA)         1.21      W2   +6.0   
HOU: 95.1  R Oswalt (2-4, 2.48 ERA)           1.15     L3

NYY: 104.5    R Burnett, A. (4-0, 1.99 ERA)     1.16      W6   +4.1   
BOS: 100.4  L Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA)             1.31     L2

Looking at the above matchups, the Toronto Blue Jays are looking like the POD  (-109 on Pinnacle), Great price........





     
 
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Posted: #780

Here is the injury list of the team we are focusing on; in case there are any key players not going to play today.

There are no ChiSox injuries to report

Toronto Injuries



Name Pos Updated Injury Status
Edwin Encarnacion 3B 04.25.2010 Arm 15-DAY DL
Encarnacion has been placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 15, with a sore right arm.
Scott Richmond SP 04.24.2010 Shoulder 60-DAY DL
Richmond is on the 60-day disabled list with a right shoulder injury and it not expected back until late July.
Brian Tallet SP 04.22.2010 Forearm 15-DAY DL
Tallet has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a sore throwing arm, but positive results on strength tests lead him to believe the injury is not too serious.
Dustin McGowan SP 04.16.2010 Shoulder 60-DAY DL
McGowan has been transferred to the 60-day disabled list which clears space for the Jays 40-man roster. McGowan is unfortunately having a slow recovery from shoulder surgery and is uncertain of when he will return.
Jesse Litsch SP 04.14.2010 Elbow 60-DAY DL
Marc Rzepczynski SP 04.05.2010 Finger 15-DAY DL
Dirk Hayhurst RP 03.12.2010 Shoulder 60-DAY DL
 
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Posted: #781
Wow great job with the info everyone!

The two games I'm looking at right now are TOR & TB.

No interest in getting involved with BOS/NYY, not betting against Oswalt & not betting on Blackburn and MIN.

I think I agree TOR is the early lean. Floyd 0-4 vs TOR in his career (7.23/1.77/.317).  Romero owned CWS his only start against them this year - 8 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K.  Both TOR & TB have to travel tonight for games tomorrow - I wonder how that'll affect their lineups for today.

Unrelated note - did anyone see the line for Jimenez vs Kershaw?  Wow...
 
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Posted: #782
Shields 4-1 career vs OAK (3.59/1.13/2.36) and dominated them earlier this year - 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 12 K.  Braden has gotten roughed up a bit by TB (career 3-2, 4.91/1.55/.268) & was pounded for 6 ER in 4 IP with 3 BB & 1 K a couple starts ago.  TB has a poor average against lefties but have hit 10 HR and scored the 2nd most runs against them.

Tough call here...TB also fits the "Game 3" trend.  Might play both them and TOR, gotta see which would be the POD.
 
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Posted: #783
TB should have most of their regular lineup.  Zobrist had an off-day Friday, Upton was off Tuesday.  No way they sit Longo vs a lefty (.333), and if they sit Pena that's fine (.171 vs lefties).  Crawford doesn't hit lefties well (.217) so he may be a day-off candidate - but he was off Sunday & the team was off Monday.
 
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Posted: #784
POD:  TOR -1

I am playing TB -1 also, but Braden has pitched well in every other start this year besides TB.  There's reason to believe he may be able to tame TB this time around.

I like Romero vs Floyd much better.

Good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #785
Has anyone seen this on TR site?  they rate all the matchups.






Pick		 Confidence Model Prediction
Toronto
Power Ratings Toronto 52% odds to win
Toronto
Decision Tree Toronto 52% odds to win

Over/Under Predictions

Pick Confidence Model Prediction
Under 8.0
Decision Tree 5% odds to go under 8.0 points
 
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Posted: #786
(red=hot)(blue=rain/snow)             WHIP /BWHIP/Bera/Strk/Advantage
TOR: 104.7  L  Romero, R (3-1, 3.00 ERA)  1.07 1.28  4.02    L1   +5.6   
CWS: 99.1 R   Floyd, G (1-3, 6.89 ERA)      1.81 1.36  4.12    W1

BAL: 98.2    L  Matusz (2-2, 3.93 ERA)        1.36  1.34  3.18   L1      
MIN:  101.1 R  Blackburn (2-1, 5.79 ERA)   1.62  1.03  2.44   W1   +2.9

TB: 108.0    R Shields,J (4-0, 3.15 ERA)       1.30  1.07  3.12    L1   +6.4   
OAK: 101.6  L Braden (3-2, 4.14 ERA)         1.19  1.19  3.13   W1
Possible Thunder Storm 8-12mph winds WSW

SD: 101.1    R Correia (4-2, 3.97 ERA)          1.21  1.10  2.88   W2   +6.0   
HOU: 95.1  R Oswalt (2-4, 2.48 ERA)           1.15  1.16  3.38    L3
Possible Thunder Storm 8-12mph winds ESE

NYY: 104.5    R Burnett, A. (4-0, 1.99 ERA) 1.16  1.28  3.69   W6   +4.1   
BOS: 100.4  L Lester (2-2, 3.93 ERA)           1.31  1.90  6.61    L2
Very Windy 15-20 mph winds WNW

As requested i added BullpenWHIP, BullpenERA, And some weather info under the game... If the game is highlighted in Red = Heatwave or very hot, Blue = rain/ snow /heavy wind
 
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Posted: #787
In New Yankee stadium... over has been 6-1 when the winds are 10-20 mph West ---> North West

Will be researching more into that trend right now...
 
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Posted: #788
thanks GrandMaster!
 
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Posted: #789
interesting line went from Tor -.10 to Tor +.06  someone impt in Tor lineup must not be playing
 
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Posted: #790
Vixen I took a look at the predictions and the different models - interesting info, but none seem too reliable.  I like the site's information, but I think we're better pulling info from there and everywhere else we do & coming to our own conclusions.  We've been pretty good at it so far, and the growing contributions can only help us.
 
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Posted: #791
Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:

Vixen I took a look at the predictions and the different models - interesting info, but none seem too reliable.  I like the site's information, but I think we're better pulling info from there and everywhere else we do & coming to our own conclusions.  We've been pretty good at it so far, and the growing contributions can only help us.

Yes I looked at the rest of the games too and it's unremarkable for the most part. BOL!
 
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Posted: #792
That TOR line shift is strange - only player that could be sitting to cause that much of a swing would be Vernon Wells...and he's played 16 straight DAYS, not games, so it's certainly possible.  I can't find anything confirming that though...
 
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Posted: #793
Their website has Wells in the lineup...I don't see any big differences.  Ruiz is playing 1B instead of Overbay, but I'm pretty sure Overbay doesn't command line-altering respect.  Weird.
 
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Posted: #794
Vixen and SixTen.....I was just gonna post the exact same thing..... this linedrop on Tor is scaring me away from playing it at this point
 
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Posted: #795
Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:


Unrelated note - did anyone see the line for Jimenez vs Kershaw?  Wow...


i know, it was almost as weird as the sabathia line yesterday.

 
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Posted: #796
Well here is my input plays for today.TOR.RL,also playing Cards,DBacks both on the RL.Bol to all today.....
 
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Posted: #797
Quote Originally Posted by GrandMasterAL:

In New Yankee stadium... over has been 6-1 when the winds are 10-20 mph West ---> North West

Will be researching more into that trend right now...


Opps not New Yankee stadium... but Fenway.... The over is 6-1 both at NY stadium and Fenway when the winds are 10+ mph... is that a coincidence or a sign?
 
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Posted: #798

glefkb01  :COL/LAD; L game 1; L game 2;  already followed the trend  errir Dodgers won the first game and Lost the 2nd game

Tonight we have jimmlenez against kershaw ( prediction Colorado win)

 
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Posted: #799

TB ML for me tonight

TB win the first game lost the 2nd so they would win tonight

Pictchers advantage for TB also

 
 
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Posted: #800
Don't fear the line!

As long as you don't see any major lineup/pitching/weather changes, we gotta trust the system here - it's done well for us so far.

Hart I went with TB -1 and COL -1 today...but with TB, don't be surprised if Braden pitches well against them.  He's been great outside of one start, which was against TB.

Good luck everyone!
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