How to hit 70% (or better) in MLB using Teamrankings.com

13-4, nice little run we got going.  Let's keep it up!

ATL:  97.9    R  Lowe (4-2, 5.18 ERA)       1.52   L1        
PHI:  101.7   L  Moyer (3-2, 5.70 ERA)      1.33   W3    +3.8

ATL batting .231, 4 HR vs lefties.  They also traveled last night & rookie phenom Jason Heyward is battling a sore groin (he didn't start last night but pinch-hit).  Derek Lowe 6-2, 2.87/1.12/.239 over 11 career starts vs PHI, Moyer awful against the Braves.  Pretty good line though (-135 ML).

TOR: 105.8  R   Marcum (1-1, 3.12 ERA)     1.09    W5    +6.5
CHW: 99.3    L   Buehrle (2-4, 5.30 ERA)      1.42    L1

TOR worst team in the league by far against lefties (.181).  They did beat CWS best lefty yesterday though (thanks to a shutout) & Marcum pitching very well this year.  He is 3-0 in 4 career starts vs CWS with a 2.16 ERA/0.80 WHIP/.149 BAA.  Buehrle 12 career starts - 5-3, 2.68/1.09/.232 vs TOR.  ML is even right now.

BAL: 97.8    R  Millwood (0-3, 3.15 ERA)    1.25    W1
MIN: 101.9   L  Liriano (4-0, 1.50 ERA)       1.08     L1      +4.1

BAL .243/6 HR vs lefties.  Key here is, MIN should win this series.  Considering they already dropped Game 1, this could be a good play.  The RL isn't too chalky (-130), but I guess the jury is out on the MIN bats considering last night's performance.  Millwood has been solid all year, but his team's scored more than 3 R for him just once.  Liriano has been just plain dominant.

TAM: 109.9  L  Price (3-1, 2.34 ERA)          1.01    W4     +8.8
OAK: 101.1  L  Gonzalez (3-1, 3.45 ERA)   1.29    W2

It's almost free money picking TB on the road lately, but OAK is 11-6 at home & had an off-day while TB traveled after a late-night W in SEA.  Both teams batting .239 vs lefties with TB having 10 HR & OAK 6.  Price has been awesome & Gonzalez pretty good too - but Gonzalez has starts against TOR (who can't hit lefties), CLE, SEA & LAA.  The one top-notch team he faced (NYY) chased him after 3.1 innings (5 ER, 5 BB).  Strange line right now for TB (ML -155, RL -120...usually a bigger disparity).

SDG: 100.6  R   Latos (1-3, 5.47 ERA)         1.48    L1      +4.9
HOU: 95.7    R   Norris (1-3, 7.25 ERA)        1.97    L1

HOU has scored 14 runs in their last 8 games (allowed 43) - SD has scored 37 (allowed 19).  Both lines are good (a -1 play is even money).  Latos has had only one horrible start, but has been pretty decent his other 5.  Norris, on the other hand, hasn't pitched more than 5 innings yet and has been tagged for 15 ER/17 H/10 BB over his last 14.2 innings (3 starts) - the last two against non-threatening offenses in ATL & CIN.

What do we think?

hey cap, if u could can you post your final plays for the day. your a rockstar dude. keep em coming

Leaning MIN, then SD.

Not a fan of backing Moyer as a POD & just have a feeling TB may be due for a road loss (12-1 can't last).  As for avoiding TOR, Buerhle's got good career numbers against them and they struggle vs lefties.

Weather in Minnesota today/tonight are supposed to be pretty crappy. 1-2 inches of snow, pretty chilly and wet. Keep that in mind when you're thinking Liriano tonight

Yeah good point - plus the RL is the only real play (-130...ML is -240) and Millwood has been tough.  Target Field doesn't have a retractable roof, does it?  I assume not otherwise weather would be a non-issue.

ride the Jays til they buck you off with even money

Gotta avoid that MIN game, so that makes my POD SD -1.

SD clearly has the better offense and pitching & they're going against the Astros' worst starter.  I know Latos struggled on the road in 2 starts this year, but last year teams only hit .211 off of him in 30 innings.  He's prone to the HR ball, but who on HOU is going to take him deep?  They have 11 on the year, 2nd worst, to go along with their league-low 80 runs and 3rd worst .233 team BA.  They're even the worst in BB with 52...the next worst team has 80.  There's no real threat here.  Obviously anything can happen, but if you take out their 10-run effort vs PIT last month that's 70 runs in 28 games - barely 2.5/game.  At the very least, we know they won't be blowing SD out.  So we have an even-money bet when we can safely say the game will at least be close and SD should have ample opportunity to win.  Sounds good to me.

are going to consider NYY? Boston seems to be giving up a lot of runs in their past 2 series.

Houston is really anemic with their bats. SD should be considered too.

No retractable roof in Minnesota...was thinking about going to the game, but I think I'll hold off till tomorrow. Just wanted to see Liriano pitch tonight.

NYY didn't make the cut (+2.4) - and to be honest, I'm not sure why anyone would want to get in the middle of those contests.  I know I want no part of it all weekend.  If you got the guts though, take it down!

Just a thought abt NYY.  I agree it will be a battlefield.

Liking SD too.

Nice job, guys

Keep building a nice cushion (or safety margin) so that you can handle the losing streak when it will come knocking on the door of the PR system.

And that should happen right before the start of the All Star game in July. The only way one can avoid the wrath of the law of averages is by remaining focused and disciplined.  

 

Phillies not a bad choice either: Philly bats are hot and Moyer already beat Atl in Atl. this year.

SIXTEN u like SD RL or ML?

Bank I'm playing a combo to make the spread -1.  This way I don't have to worry about losing money to the 1/2 run on the RL but can still increase the ML payout a bit.  You need to bet enough on the ML so that your winnings will cover your bet on the RL.  This way, if the team you picked wins by 1, it'll be a push as far as your money is concerned.

For example, on my book the SD ML is -125 and the RL is +125.  Let's say you wanted to bet $100 on the game.  You need to place enough on the ML so that the money you win = $100.  In this case, you bet $55 on the ML to win $44.  Then you take the remaining $45 and bet it on the RL (which makes this bet even money).

In this scenario, you're protected if SD wins by 1 run because you'll win your ML bet & that'll cover the money you lost on the RL bet.  You break even, as opposed to betting on the RL and losing it all on that 1/2 run.

CORRECTION
(in bold)

Bank I'm playing a combo to make the spread -1.  This way I don't have to worry about losing money to the 1/2 run on the RL but can still increase the ML payout a bit.  You need to bet enough on the ML so that your winnings will cover your bet on the RL.  This way, if the team you picked wins by 1, it'll be a push as far as your money is concerned.

For example, on my book the SD ML is -125 and the RL is +125.  Let's say you wanted to bet $100 on the game.  You need to place enough on the ML so that the money you bet plus the money you win = $100.  In this case, you bet $55 on the ML to win $44.  Then you take the remaining $45 and bet it on the RL (which makes this bet even money).

In this scenario, you're protected if SD wins by 1 run because you'll win your ML bet & that'll cover the money you lost on the RL bet.  You break even, as opposed to betting on the RL and losing it all on that 1/2 run.

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[911] SDG PADRES -118( ACTION )
[926] CWS WHITE SOX -1½+170(MARCUM -R /BUEHRLE -L )
[719] PHO SUNS +9-155 (B+2½)
200/1441 (Impulse bet)

STRAIGHT BET
[911] SDG PADRES -118( ACTION)
354/300

Hopefully i don't get rocked today!  Me---> <---Bookie

Al forgot to congratulate you - you hit that parlay last night, right?

Ty Ty! These past 3 weeks has been good for me... i used to just come to covers.com to just check out the expert picks and get some streak, weather, and other info on the games, but then i discovered the FORUMS section... Always thought that forums were just for nerds who like to talk shit and brag, o boy was i wrong.... Glad to have met all u fellas who contribute to this thread... Nab, Six, Cap, Vix & the rest.... Lets keep it up!

Min RL for mr tonight

I don't see Tor win again tonight against CHWS

And don't like so much SD against Houston cause pitcher.

 

hello Glefkb01 : you talk about the last series ? or series will start tonight ?

QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Originally Posted by glefkb01]

if that trend continues...    These would be my plays for game 3

COL to win; CWS to win; Tex to win

LOTS OF PEEPS ON SD last night... COINCIDENCE??????

Rest of the game 3 picks today as the NL finishes up their series:

WAS to win; SF to win; LAD to win

LEANS on SEA; STL; HOU; CHC

game 1s are today...(every game in NL is game 1...   3 games in AL are into game 2 already

AL predictions

TX will win series against KC

TOR will win series against CWS

Bal should win series against MIN but i am gonna safely say THEY WONT...   The trend shows 80%   This series will be the 20% that doesnt follow the trend ..hehehehe

 

HEY SIX...

TB/OAK   109.9 vs 101.1   this is what I am talkin about...OAK will win, watch! Was no spike in rankings but I noticed large differentials like these have gone to the less ranked team about 60-70% of time this year...

i am ok with you but tonight MN don't play cause rain

you don't see cards win in pittsburgh tonight ?

 

 

Hello glefkb01

how was your results regarding the series ( 80 % hit when the first game is win by a team with a higher PR or Lower PR)

in the last series this wek how was your result ?

thks