NB: A-ROD is being rested today. It looks like the Yanks and LAD have the highest PR for today. So who wants to decide what are POD should be for this system today? Anyone?
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so here are the teams with the highest relative PR values. I added the WHIPs in BOLD ( Nabil said WHIP is good to look at too)
NB: A-ROD is being rested today. It looks like the Yanks and LAD have the highest PR for today. So who wants to decide what are POD should be for this system today? Anyone?
Nice day for me all-around, but the thread is now 9-4.
Tomorrow's schedule is light, but one game hits me right away. Last week we hit on NYY/BAL in BAL with Sabathia/Guthrie. A week later, we're faced with the same matchup except this time in NY. I'm expecting the chalkiest of lines, but a winner is a winner.
There's not really any other pitching matchups I like - there are 2 solid pitchers going in Jimenez & Garcia but I'm not a fan of their matchups. Let's see what the PR can tell us tomorrow.
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Nice day for me all-around, but the thread is now 9-4.
Tomorrow's schedule is light, but one game hits me right away. Last week we hit on NYY/BAL in BAL with Sabathia/Guthrie. A week later, we're faced with the same matchup except this time in NY. I'm expecting the chalkiest of lines, but a winner is a winner.
There's not really any other pitching matchups I like - there are 2 solid pitchers going in Jimenez & Garcia but I'm not a fan of their matchups. Let's see what the PR can tell us tomorrow.
OK , I did these numbers at midnight Pacific time, I'm pretty sure the numbers are updated, The games have been over for awhile. I'll check in the morning and see if they change. The top 5 for Monday May 3 2010 are:
I highlighted the Team Power Ranking Differentials in BLUE. I also added the WHIPs on the right.
I highlighted my POD from the 10 teams above in BLUE, NYY +7.8 . Its going to be expensive (-300 on Pinnacle) so I'm probably going to play the RL.
Any other opinions about my POD selection and my leaning toward the RL?
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OK , I did these numbers at midnight Pacific time, I'm pretty sure the numbers are updated, The games have been over for awhile. I'll check in the morning and see if they change. The top 5 for Monday May 3 2010 are:
Yeah as expected the NYY game is obviously the "winning" choice here but the chalk makes it a no-play. Right now the RL is -175...that's ridiculous. Anyway, here's the breakdown on the series that start today/tomorrow:
SEA - swept @ home by TEX, scored 4 runs in 3 games. TB - split 4 game series @ home vs KC, scored only 5 runs in last 3 games but gave up just over 2 per game during the series.
SD - staying home, took 3 of 4 vs MIL (3 shutouts - scored 20 R over those 3 games). COL - travel from SF, dropped 2 of 3 to Giants. Won prior series 2-1 over SD.
TOR @ CLE +3.5 Cecil/Talbot, Romero/Westbrook, Morrow/Carmona
TOR - traveling from TOR, took 3 of 4 vs OAK (scored 28 R over 4-game series, gave up 12). CLE - staying home, dropped 2 of 3 to MIN (outscored 21-11)
Both teams coming off being swept. BOS - traveling home from BAL, bullpen awful in all 3 games of sweep (and most of the year). LAA - traveling from DET, outscored 18-9 in 3-game sweep.
I have no idea what matchup I like - these teams still both scare me. Very unpredictable. From a personal standpoint, I may avoid this altogether.
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Nice work on the numbers!
Yeah as expected the NYY game is obviously the "winning" choice here but the chalk makes it a no-play. Right now the RL is -175...that's ridiculous. Anyway, here's the breakdown on the series that start today/tomorrow:
SEA - swept @ home by TEX, scored 4 runs in 3 games. TB - split 4 game series @ home vs KC, scored only 5 runs in last 3 games but gave up just over 2 per game during the series.
SD - staying home, took 3 of 4 vs MIL (3 shutouts - scored 20 R over those 3 games). COL - travel from SF, dropped 2 of 3 to Giants. Won prior series 2-1 over SD.
TOR @ CLE +3.5 Cecil/Talbot, Romero/Westbrook, Morrow/Carmona
TOR - traveling from TOR, took 3 of 4 vs OAK (scored 28 R over 4-game series, gave up 12). CLE - staying home, dropped 2 of 3 to MIN (outscored 21-11)
Both teams coming off being swept. BOS - traveling home from BAL, bullpen awful in all 3 games of sweep (and most of the year). LAA - traveling from DET, outscored 18-9 in 3-game sweep.
I have no idea what matchup I like - these teams still both scare me. Very unpredictable. From a personal standpoint, I may avoid this altogether.
According to my breakdown, we have a few solid options for tomorrow.
As for today, I think the challenge will be picking something other than the NYY. If anything, I may use that game as part of a parlay.
TOR may be the early lean. CLE batting just .210 vs lefties this year. Their starter Talbot's posted good numbers, but he's walked 11 while K'ing just 7...so he pitches to contact. TOR just came of a 7-R-per-game series, so something's gotta give. Tough to think all of those TOR hits are all of a sudden going to become outs.
This kid Cecil from TOR has shown signs of brilliance in his brief career, and his first two starts this year vs BOS & TB were pretty impressive (12.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 11 K combined).
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According to my breakdown, we have a few solid options for tomorrow.
As for today, I think the challenge will be picking something other than the NYY. If anything, I may use that game as part of a parlay.
TOR may be the early lean. CLE batting just .210 vs lefties this year. Their starter Talbot's posted good numbers, but he's walked 11 while K'ing just 7...so he pitches to contact. TOR just came of a 7-R-per-game series, so something's gotta give. Tough to think all of those TOR hits are all of a sudden going to become outs.
This kid Cecil from TOR has shown signs of brilliance in his brief career, and his first two starts this year vs BOS & TB were pretty impressive (12.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 11 K combined).
I still have no idea where you're getting people predicting series in this thread...we''re picking games...but regardless, thanks for the info.
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
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Quote Originally Posted by SixTen:
I still have no idea where you're getting people predicting series in this thread...we''re picking games...but regardless, thanks for the info.
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
Dude ! Take a hike and while you are at it, get a life (and a job too)
The rules are listed on Page 8. If you have difficulties reading english, let me know
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Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
Dude ! Take a hike and while you are at it, get a life (and a job too)
The rules are listed on Page 8. If you have difficulties reading english, let me know
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
???????
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Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:
Page 1... he said teams with greater than 5 differential in GAME 1 will win the series 70% time...
he later changed it to individual games.
I notice something when mapping EVERY game out .... EVERY GAME...played thus far...
In every game the team rank that wins game one of a series wins the series... Well, i.e. like this we have all seen the numbers change throughout the series...
in the past 3 series (2 weeks of play) If the LESS ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 17 out of 23 times... If the GREATER ranked team wins game 1, they go on to take the series 14-5-2....
thats 31-11-2 ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Gonna look at this some more too...
OOOO WE ARE FOLLOWING RULES ON PAGE 8 not PAGE 1....OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Seriosly... to add to your freedom of speech kick as you were getting kicked off of here... I have invested some time trending your "un named website" ...
to add to my last quote... There have been 115 series played this year .... check my math ...
if you go back and look up every game (AS I DID) and rank the teams as NABIL showed... The team ranked greater in GAME 1 and won has gone on to win the series ..record 48-13-4 YTD (78%) The Team ranked lower in GAME 1 of every series has gone on to win the series : record 42-10 YTD (80%)...
What I am suggesting is hold off on game one betting and then kill your bookie on the rest of the series... GO BACK AND SEE FOR YOURSELF!!!
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OOOO WE ARE FOLLOWING RULES ON PAGE 8 not PAGE 1....OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Seriosly... to add to your freedom of speech kick as you were getting kicked off of here... I have invested some time trending your "un named website" ...
to add to my last quote... There have been 115 series played this year .... check my math ...
if you go back and look up every game (AS I DID) and rank the teams as NABIL showed... The team ranked greater in GAME 1 and won has gone on to win the series ..record 48-13-4 YTD (78%) The Team ranked lower in GAME 1 of every series has gone on to win the series : record 42-10 YTD (80%)...
What I am suggesting is hold off on game one betting and then kill your bookie on the rest of the series... GO BACK AND SEE FOR YOURSELF!!!
STL ranked 101.8 vs. PHI 100.5 If you go back and look at ever game every day these numbers will change as NABIL pointed out.... so everyday I have been going and writing the ranks out on every team... By the end of this series, STL could be ranked lower depending on how it goes... What I am saying is IF the team ranked low today wins... the Lowest ranked team (daily basis) wins the series 80% of the time (so far this year) IF the team that ranks highest wins tonite (ie STL) the highest (daily ranked team) will win 78% of the time...
On everygame I have tables (NERD ALERT) that rank each team GREATER OR LESS based on the "unnamed website" GO AND CHECK!!! THESE are the results...
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Further explanation:
I.E.
TODAY For Instance...
STL ranked 101.8 vs. PHI 100.5 If you go back and look at ever game every day these numbers will change as NABIL pointed out.... so everyday I have been going and writing the ranks out on every team... By the end of this series, STL could be ranked lower depending on how it goes... What I am saying is IF the team ranked low today wins... the Lowest ranked team (daily basis) wins the series 80% of the time (so far this year) IF the team that ranks highest wins tonite (ie STL) the highest (daily ranked team) will win 78% of the time...
On everygame I have tables (NERD ALERT) that rank each team GREATER OR LESS based on the "unnamed website" GO AND CHECK!!! THESE are the results...
OOOO WE ARE FOLLOWING RULES ON PAGE 8 not PAGE 1....OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Seriosly... to add to your freedom of speech kick as you were getting kicked off of here... I have invested some time trending your "un named website" ...
There is nothing wrong with being selective with "investments" and waiting for the better opportunities. There are no games that stand out today, IMO, right now.
to add to my last quote... There have been 115 series played this year .... check my math ...
if you go back and look up every game (AS I DID) and rank the teams as NABIL showed... The team ranked greater in GAME 1 and won has gone on to win the series ..record 48-13-4 YTD (78%) The Team ranked lower in GAME 1 of every series has gone on to win the series : record 42-10 YTD (80%)...
What I am suggesting is hold off on game one betting and then kill your bookie on the rest of the series... GO BACK AND SEE FOR YOURSELF!!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:
OOOO WE ARE FOLLOWING RULES ON PAGE 8 not PAGE 1....OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
Seriosly... to add to your freedom of speech kick as you were getting kicked off of here... I have invested some time trending your "un named website" ...
There is nothing wrong with being selective with "investments" and waiting for the better opportunities. There are no games that stand out today, IMO, right now.
to add to my last quote... There have been 115 series played this year .... check my math ...
if you go back and look up every game (AS I DID) and rank the teams as NABIL showed... The team ranked greater in GAME 1 and won has gone on to win the series ..record 48-13-4 YTD (78%) The Team ranked lower in GAME 1 of every series has gone on to win the series : record 42-10 YTD (80%)...
What I am suggesting is hold off on game one betting and then kill your bookie on the rest of the series... GO BACK AND SEE FOR YOURSELF!!!
So 1 of every 5 series, there's a team that wins Game 1 then loses the next 2 (bear in mind I'm just using 3-game series as an example). 4 of 5 times, a team that wins the first game wins another in the series (either Game 2, Game 3, or both).
I'm not sure that's a surprise to anyone. I'm not trying to argue - the more information, the better - but I'm not sure I see your point. The only thing I see here is, if teams split the first 2 games of a series, odds are the team that won Game 1 will win Game 3. Otherwise, you're still speculating on which of the next 2 games the Game 1 winner will take - although I guess if you bet both, worst you can do is break even 80% of the time.
Am I getting this right?
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So 1 of every 5 series, there's a team that wins Game 1 then loses the next 2 (bear in mind I'm just using 3-game series as an example). 4 of 5 times, a team that wins the first game wins another in the series (either Game 2, Game 3, or both).
I'm not sure that's a surprise to anyone. I'm not trying to argue - the more information, the better - but I'm not sure I see your point. The only thing I see here is, if teams split the first 2 games of a series, odds are the team that won Game 1 will win Game 3. Otherwise, you're still speculating on which of the next 2 games the Game 1 winner will take - although I guess if you bet both, worst you can do is break even 80% of the time.
my post got mixed in to the quote. So here it is again:There is nothing wrong with being selective with "investments" and waiting for the better opportunities. There are no games that stand out today, IMO, right now.
Also just to clarify a bit more about the traveling factor that had been discussed in previous posts. ... I don't want to mislead anyone into thinking that traveling is an impt. factor to consider with these games. My point was about a team traveling back home after an extended road trip. Especially without a day off, there tends to be what I call a "distraction factor". I have seen the home team lose game 1 very often under these circumstances. They do go on to win game 2 very often, though. I don't have the numbers to support this theory. But I have seen it many times. You see it in the NBA too. It's just my opinion and it has saved me from losing before; so wanted to share that. For example, I did not like the POD last week when it was LAD playing Pitts in game 1 for this very reason and they did in fact lose the game.
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my post got mixed in to the quote. So here it is again:There is nothing wrong with being selective with "investments" and waiting for the better opportunities. There are no games that stand out today, IMO, right now.
Also just to clarify a bit more about the traveling factor that had been discussed in previous posts. ... I don't want to mislead anyone into thinking that traveling is an impt. factor to consider with these games. My point was about a team traveling back home after an extended road trip. Especially without a day off, there tends to be what I call a "distraction factor". I have seen the home team lose game 1 very often under these circumstances. They do go on to win game 2 very often, though. I don't have the numbers to support this theory. But I have seen it many times. You see it in the NBA too. It's just my opinion and it has saved me from losing before; so wanted to share that. For example, I did not like the POD last week when it was LAD playing Pitts in game 1 for this very reason and they did in fact lose the game.
I understand everyone saying "if there's no obvious play, there's no need to make one". However, a lot of our plays lately have been very chalky - and I don't think we need a system to tell us that heavy favorites are going to win most of the time. It's plays like today (TOR ML is even money) that'll show the true value of the system & if it's actually reliable or needs some fine-tuning.
Would anyone have even bothered looking at a TOR/CLE game otherwise?
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Thanks Nabil.
I understand everyone saying "if there's no obvious play, there's no need to make one". However, a lot of our plays lately have been very chalky - and I don't think we need a system to tell us that heavy favorites are going to win most of the time. It's plays like today (TOR ML is even money) that'll show the true value of the system & if it's actually reliable or needs some fine-tuning.
Would anyone have even bothered looking at a TOR/CLE game otherwise?
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