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follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

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Posted: #176
are you worried at all about the QB situation in tennessee? isnt there a controversy there? still love it that much despite that shep? thanks for the input
 
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Posted: #177

cc... i could care less about who plays QB for UT... same thing either way... but a complete non-issue in a game where the O-line of UT averages 308 lbs, and the D-line of NIU averages 257 lbs... UT will pound pound pound that line and go well over 300 yards rushing...

people really are sheep... i know i say it, but come on...

just two weeks ago this UT team was a 7 pt dog to Florida, and everyone loved Tennessee... so they get wiped out (as i told you all they would), and suddenly Tennessee is gonna be dogshit against No Ill???  come on people...

Tennessee needs a big win, and they need a confidence booster... this isn't Florida... this isn't Auburn... this is a Mac team playing their 3rd straight road game in a stadium they have no business walking onto... they are primed to get blown off the field...

the QB is a complete non-issue... NIU gives up rushing yards by the ton!

 
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Posted: #178
i will say this... UT is one of those teams i seem to have a very good beat on... bet against them playing any team that can hang with them physically, and has better skill position players... bet on them playing any team that they can physically dominate... it is really as simple as that, and it has been easy money for years...
 
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Posted: #179
oh yea... No Illinois does not have a great running game, so they are going to be playing into the strength of Tennessee's defense (the secondary) all day... they will be one-dimensional without being able to even cross the line of scrimmage on running plays... this means UT will be sending blitzers and getting TOs in the secondary...
 
 
it's good you brought this up... because i did officially double up my bet on the game (at -15 this time around)... so my best bet on them is officially in the books...
 
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Posted: #180
thanks shepherd! im all over em with you!
 
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Posted: #181
Shep,
 
I wouldn't go to church if Nebraska played on Sunday's. They are a very average and beatable team. They will however play with a lot more intensity and emotion because of the new staff. They haven't lost in 30 years to Mizzou at home, well that along with every other record thats been shattered during the last 2 years will be a harsh reality come Saturday.
 
They are making great strides as you mentioned and will be one of the elite programs once again but it will take time. It is painful for our Huskers to be given so little respect and that is why there are so many passionate fans on the thread this time for Nebraska.
 
There is no way the Huskers can keep this within 2 TD's you know it and I (we) know it. I (we) just don't want to admit it...
 
Best Of Luck
 
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Posted: #182
That Oregon State play is looking good for me so far
 
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Posted: #183
OSU (+11.5) 
OSU ML (+345)
 
 
note to "Coach" Riley... i'll drop by your house this week and take you to school on when it is and isn't ok to go for 2 pts... two failed 2-pt conversions, 1 in the first half (never ever go for 2 in the first half... ) and another early in the 3rd quarter with a lead...
 
unreal any coach could keep his job after such a horrible call...
 
 
Blk... i agree... and also agree NU will get it together and get back to the top someday...
 
 
shitty way to start the week... hate losing games because of an idiotic coaching move...
 
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Posted: #184
Shepherd,
 
well I ended up going  with Pitt + 14 and the Under, also Oregon State + 12 and ended up happy..
 
I have a good bit of the same plays as you this week, which intrigues me.
 
Im thinking of putting a big time parlay on Tx Tech and Tennessee, I feel real good about it as if its just too good to be true. How are you feeling about it now before Friday?
 
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Posted: #185
Shepherd, I am not trying to make this personal in any way just remember that...I also am not talking about a mythological curse, Im talking about a homefield advantage and they way it gets into players heads sometimes, thats all. I understand what you are trying to tell me and it does make sense. I just don't see how Mizzou is being underestimated rt now...
 
As for Mizzou proving themselves, I was not referring to this week's game necessarily, Im talking about season-wise, as in are they going to take that next step and win at least a conference championship...Im not talking about them covering from game to game. I more than likely will not touch this next game betting- wise because I dont like to root against my team or watch them get beat down and lose $$$ on top of it.
 
Also, if you could explain why you seem to be so strong with your Texas Tech and Oregon plays...leaning strong the other way in both...
 
To those wondering about the avatar...I just think it looks that way from the way she is standing...
 
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Posted: #186
How could you be leaning toward K state this week?
 
Im liking Oregon as a small play as well
 
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Posted: #187
jwheels i still very good about both Tenn and Tx Tech...
 
no_chance... this is why Missouri is underrated... i already know Missouri is a legit BCS and NC contender... they do not need to prove it... on the other hand, most people (as you said) will need to see "proof" before they start really buying that stock...
 
basically, it's just a matter of how much people are willing to invest at a certain price... if people are still hesitating and waiting on this team, then they are underrated by defnition... no waiting necessary... they are there... i know college football!
 
 
USC falls into the same disastrous trend that so many BCS busted teams have fallen into over the past two years... betting against these teams is already 4-0 ATS and 2-2 SU (as dogs) this year... honestly, like i said regarding OSU... the side (Oregon +17.5) is a gift... i'm taking advantage of the free ML opportunity...
 
 
Kansas State was not informed by the commissioner of college football that all teams are allowed to try to stop the other team from scoring...
 
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Posted: #188
added to my card:
 
Missouri (-9.5)
Va Tech (-27.5)
 
 
Missouri was already a small play... since this is my buddy's best bet this week, i doubled it up to put it on this card... he is 5-0 ATS with his top play this year... most of them not even close...
 
Va Tech is a game he and i looked into earlier tonight... WKent won't score more than 7... there has to be at least a 40% chance WK will not score a point, based on what we saw...
 
 
Updated Week 5 card:
 
Oregon St (+11.5) 
BYU (-28)
*Nevada (-23.5)
*Tx Tech (-6.5)
*Tennessee (-16)
Missouri (-9.5)
Kansas (-13)
Bowling Green (-20.5)
Arizona St (+10)
Rice (+14.5)
Oregon (+17)
Va Tech (-27.5)
 
 
* - best bets
 
 
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Posted: #189
Im kind of thinkin of laying off of BYU and getting the 3.5 + for Marshall for Friday. What do you think?
 
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Posted: #190
and yes... i know that Florida falls into the same category as USC... but i don't expect the trend to be perfect for the whole season, and if there are teams that are going to fail to come through, it's teams like Arkansas...
 
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Posted: #191
There a also a lot of good dog bets this weekend and unders...
 
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Posted: #192
jwheels... i'm not understanding why so many seem to like Marshall, but what do i know... i didn't understand why everyone liked Utah tonight, either... oh wait!
 
to me, this is still the same Cincy team that played OU tough for nearly 3 quarters... Marshall would (without question) lose by 50 to Oklahoma...
 
basically, Cincy has a defense... Marshall doesn't...
 
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Posted: #193

I went with OSU tonight by the way..

Im just not sure what to go with tommorrow yet or to play at all. I won a good bit tonight though.

I was over 70 percent 2 weeks ago and hit 2 parlays. I agree with most of your picks this week and im new here, but it seems you know what your doing as well. Are you going to post all of your plays for this weekend tommorrow?

 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

There a also a lot of good dog bets this weekend and unders...

indeed... if you are looking for dogs, look no further than my ML-combo plays... now 12-1 ATS (8-5 SU) for the year...

Rutgers (+14), Purdue (+14), Colorado (+14.5), Arizona St (+10), Rice (+14.5), Oregon (+17.5)
 
also, these are my total plays (all small bets):
 
Rutgers/WVa (Un 45.5)
Iowa/Mich St (Un 46)
Tx Tech/K St (Ov 65.5)
OU/Baylor (Ov 63.5)
Tx A&M/Ok St (Ov 62.5)
Missou/NU (Ov 68.5)
 
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Posted: #195
ugh... just looking at that "8-5 SU" pisses me off!  should be 9-4... Riley owes me money...
 
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Posted: #196
You really think Purdue and Colorado can be good dogs this week? Purdue was a bad dog for me last weekend against ND.
 
Im locks on Oregon, Rice and ASU this weekend. I also like South Carolina and Kentucky for small plays.
 
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Posted: #197
You really think Purdue and Colorado can be good dogs this week? Purdue was a bad dog for me last weekend against ND.
 
Im locks on Oregon, Rice and ASU this weekend. I also like South Carolina and Kentucky for small plays.
 
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Posted: #198
Well it seems like you have your stuff together shepherd...just seems like everybody and their dog has $$$ on Tx Tech...I know K State hasnt played much d but I think they would be able to score at home against the steel curtain d of the red raiders...I know Im probably wrong here and I am in the minority in thinking this...thats kinda why I like it...
 
I guess we shouldn't even bother playing the Big 12 regular season since Mizzou should just be crowned conference champs and pencilled into the title game against whomever comes out of the SEC...since they have nothing to prove...
 
Not tryin' to be a smart ass...just my take on it...
 
BOL with your Mizzou play...I'll have to root against you though...
 
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Posted: #199
Thanks for your input Shepherd.
 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by no_chance78:

I guess we shouldn't even bother playing the Big 12 regular season since Mizzou should just be crowned conference champs and pencilled into the title game against whomever comes out of the SEC...since they have nothing to prove...
 
no_chance... i will not tolerate having my words twisted... i said nothing of this kind... if you aren't going to respect my opinions, which i have told you time and time again are my objective opinions, then please find another thread to patronize...
 
i never said or suggested anything remotely like this... either read what i said and understand it, or just stay away...
 
i do NOT think Missouri will win the Big 12... i do NOT think Missouri will make it to the NC game...
 
now PLEASE... do NOT put words into my mouth and show a little respect... i have done or said nothing to disrespect you... you should not be taking this personally, and it is ridiculous that you still are...
 
you have a right to like or dislike any picks or opinions i share... but to keep spinning what i am saying to sound like something outrageous is insulting...
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