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follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

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Prospect
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Posted: #226
Shep,
 
Thanks for the sermon!LOL Hey tell why USC wont cover when Oregon has a backup qb playing and USC is money at night in the coliseum?  On the surface it looks like a safe bet.
 
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Posted: #227
safer bet (if there is a such thing) BYU or Kansas?
 
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Posted: #228
byang... mostly hunch... although i do have considerable amounts of money on Purdue (+14), Colorado (+14), Purdue ML and Colorado ML... and considered doing the same with Iowa... but what do i know?
 
 
genx... i've been hounding on this... teams that got BCS busted last year were a complete abomination against the spread the following week (they were actually pretty awful SU, too)... Oregon is not some pushover... this team is legit!  they can play nasty defense, and have an even nastier running game... USC will be ecstatic to get a win out of this one... this is their biggest test of the Pac-10 schedule by a long way...
 
and there are no safe bets... but i like them both...
 
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Posted: #229
damn....well i guess i'll just have to go with MY OWN GUT feelings then....BOL
 
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Posted: #230
byang... i highly encourage you to do so... personally, i don't ever like chaging someone's mind on what they are betting, but if you ask me i will tell you... GL!
 
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Posted: #231
thats what i always say, go with your instinct, if a thread makes you change your mind, dont bet it.  Too much thinking can be a baaaaad thang!
 
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Posted: #232
Shep,
 
Mizzou is a contender for BCS and NC just like every other undefeated team in college FB as you stated...
 
NO Chance, get it thru your head Oklahoma is the team to beat in the Big XII and with what I have seem so far from Mizzou on defense, they don't have a shot at beating OKLA.
 
Nebraska has to beat Iowa St, Baylor, and either KSU or CU just to make a bowl game and that will be an uphill battle. You can disagree but enough is enough man, be a fan and state your opinion, then move on. Please leave this alone.
 
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Posted: #233
Love your work Shepherd! 
 
I strongly believe USC wins Saturday night, BUT does not cover the 16 1/2.  IMHO drop the ml bet on Oregon.
 
BOL!
 
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Posted: #234

Ive got some good dogs im looking at for the weekend, I will post them later to see what everyone thinks..

 

 

Any thoughts on play tonight?

 
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Posted: #235
what do you think of Marshall +3.5... I mean you would think one home dog has to cover.. .and it aint gonna be utah st.
 
I'm on Texas Tech; kansas; and Oregon already-- got tech at 6.5 when my book opened it
 
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Posted: #236
Right now, my only play for Friday might be the Under on the Marshall game.
 
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Posted: #237

Howzit Shep!  BYU is money in the bank!  My crew is 6-0 this week!  We put a little sumthin sumthin on all the weekday games because we enjoy that rush - I think it's called being a degenerate!  The Thursday night home dog was a key play last night!  Love that trend!  Looked at your Nevada and tech bets, very good research!  Ty for your insight!  My call is NAVY game!  The qb is from Hawaii and he is a winner in every aspect (leadership).  My little bro went to AFA, so I followed them for te past five years.  This is a rivalry that will be close.  AFA runs the ball a lot, but the NAVY QB is back from being injured and they will win outright!  Anywayz, thanks for the picks!

BYU 55-10

Navy 34-27

ALOHA,

Last Word

 
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Posted: #238

Shepherd,

Oregon does NOT have a nasty defense!!!!!  Did you watch them play Boise State????Obviously not...I advise to stay away from Oregon...they have a backup quarterback...We all will see the real USC team on saturday at home!!!

Oh and USC's toughest games in the pac-10 is cal not oregon

 
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Posted: #239
Im glad how you focus on just one part of my thread and beat it into the ground...I guess you never misunderstand anything that anyone says on here...I'm not taking any of this personally bc it is a just a college football thread and we are here to share opinions on games...
 
Hey, if you like Mizzou that much, then go with it. I don't see why you got all bent out of shape when I made the pencilling Mizzou into the title game comment. If you think that highly of them, then that's your opinion. Obviously I misinterpreted the "they do not need to prove themselves" comment and that is why I said what I said. If I am irritating you in any way that was not my intent. 
 
And blkshirtz...I know all the hoopla around Oklahoma and yes they look like the team to beat in the Big 12...I know Nebraska has a ways to go to compete with teams like that. I've said that a long time ago.  I am a Husker fan, but a realistic one. I have a pretty good idea what they are capable of and what they aren't.
My world doesn't rise and fall with every Husker win or loss.
 
I was ready to put this issue to bed a long time ago, but people kept coming in with their two cents so I felt like I had to respond. I don't have an issue with anyone taking Mizzou in this game, I do not feel disrespected bc of it. It is just a football game and has nothing to do with me personally.
 
With that being said, let's find something else to discuss...
 
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Posted: #240

Shep,

You probably missed my earlier post on Vandy. With as many people giving their two cents that’s understandable. Your gut is 1000% correct they are a phony team. Speaking of phony teams your take on Navy is also correct, despite the rhetorical bullshit about history and trends.

You are one of the best, go with your gut on Auburn and Air Force. That’s whom I took. BTW the flyboys are down to 4-4.5. That’s value to me.

Thanks.

Henry

 
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Posted: #241
Shepherd,
 
Are you aware of this Shepard with an A?...He's even saying "follow the Shepard".  New member might be tryin to steal your thunder and lead the sheep astray.  Good picks man, keep it up.
 
 
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Posted: #242
shep
 
new to the site...luv your insight...curious on your ML-combo bets - are you taking the side and a money line bet on each play? 
 
 
 
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Posted: #243
Shep-
I have the following picks....
BYU -28.5
Penn ST. -13.5
Texas Tech -7 (Large)
Auburn -4  (Large)
Florida -25 (kinda scares me a little, but teams put up big numbers on Ark.....they are horrible...)
BAMA -15
Tennessee -16
Texas -13
USC -16 (I know you dont like this pick)
Nevada -24
Oklahoma -24.5
 
Also, I was looking at Mizzouri-- I get it at -10... Seems good
But......
Considering Mizzu has the second best passing offense in the nation, and second best overall offense in the nation.....this seems like an easy game for Mizzu?  Am I missing something?  Neb has NO running game to speak of  < and they are saying that this maybe close because Neb has not lost a home game to Mizzu since 1978? And Neb has won 32 of 33 contests?? 
Seriously???  I think Mizzu will win 42-17. 
 
Something just dosent seem right to me...
 
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Posted: #244
Tickets straight favorites scare me, especially one that large.  Theres some huge spreads up there.

GL.

Utah's 11 points in 2 minutes kept me from 4 for 4 last night.  Oh well, underdog ML bets are made to be lost.

Early leans are all Big 12, can't hurt since it was brean and butter last year.

Mizzou - 10.   Nebraska at home, homecoming, 30 year drought.....Bring it on.  Mizzou hasn't won in lincoln in 30 years simply because they didn't play in Lincoln last year.  At this point nebraska better hope the myth and magic keeps them in this one because I don't think their play on either side of the ball is going to do it.

A&M +25  A&M is horrible but Oklahoma State has a tendency to lose shootouts by forgetting to draw their pistol and subsequently shooting themselves in the foot.  thats not to imply A&M is going to throw up big numbers but as much as I dislike an Aggie, they know when to fight and I know better than to bet a big OSU spread with their track record of utter failures and massive collapses.  If this one keeps moving up I will go 2x.


Already on Tech -6.5 2x

No underdog ML bets as of yet since they have a tendency to get inflated on matchbook prior to kickoff but Rice is going to be the first one I jump on come game time.
 
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Posted: #245
I hate that I can't edit my typos.

  "BREAD and BUTTER"
 
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Posted: #246

I honestly think UF will have everyone breathing a sigh of relief in the second quarter, they will come to play and its the worst time for Arky to meet them. Last week was a fluke of turnovers, they wont do that again all year.

 

Shep, you see that Stephens is starting at QB for Tennessee? Im still feeling good about my parlay with them and Tx Tech but its a little scary with a new QB..

 
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Posted: #247
Let me enhance everyones bankroll a bit here with a gift for Saturday!

Alabama -15.5

Miami -2

North Carolina -8

Ohio St. -1

USC -16

 
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Posted: #248
Trojan... i don't think you understand how ML bets work, or why you bet them... but Mazda does... so i will post his comment for you...
 
Moss4Real... when i post something about a team, i am not guessing... if i say it, it is because i have seen enough to make that statement with extreme confidence...
 
NC... as i said earlier...   stop already... seriously!
 
heideh... i already have Auburn, and am just waiting for the AF line to drop to 4 or lower... Navy and Vandy represent two really really bad public plays this week... the 3rd was Utah last night...
 
thtsgood... nice heads up... honestly, i'm pretty sure whatever douchebag is trying to impersonate me is far too stupid to fool anyone... or anyone who is fooled is far too stupid for me to be concerned about...
 
ejdav... you got a lot of big favs, but as long as they are the right favs, i guess that's ok... and yea, NU is gonna get ransacked...
 
jwheels... i do not care who starts at QB... honestly... i really don't... i'm not just saying that... i would make the bet at exactly the same price no matter who they start... it's not a factor in that game...
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #249
Hey shep, I am just giving you a hard time here but what happens (God forbid) if over the next two weeks your best bets winning percentage drops to within earshot of your overall?

Heres a wager you can bank: the idiots that showed up last week after OSU won are going to go nuts.

Best of luck to you, I just had a horrible flash of the KSU team that shows up to play Texas every year showing up in Manhattan on saturday.  Worse yet if the Tech team that shows up to play Texas every year shows up we are all screwed.

Forgive my boredom, I cut out of work early

 
 
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Posted: #250
Quote Originally Posted by Mazdaspeed:


Utah's 11 points in 2 minutes kept me from 4 for 4 last night.  Oh well, underdog ML bets are made to be lost.

to many people that sounds dumb... last week someone said betting MLs seems like a great way to lose money... i am 8-5 on them (and yes, i do bet all of them on the side, too... 12-1 ATS)... that means i have only lost money on 1 ML bet this year...

the only thing i care about with a ML bet is this... value... Oregon is +575... that means, if i think they could beat USC 1 in 7 tries, then it is a good bet... especially if i am highly certain they will cover the spread, because that means i am getting 2:1 value on a free ML bet...

that is NOT a good way to lose money... it is literally free money... i know i will finish at least 50% on ML bets, and at least 70% on the sides... that means i will more than double my money on those plays...

 

rexiv, sorry i missed yours... no i definitely do not like Marshall... its clearly a public play... just go check out the game thread... this Cincy team was competitive with Oklahoma because they have a strong defense... Marshall would get absolutely annihilated by OU... there's no reason people should be in love with Marshall tonight... either bet Cincy, bet the under, or don't bet the game...

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