On the note of "how ML bets work" I will say what I like to do is take my 2-4 favorite underdog ATS bets and look at their ML juice. If I feel the chance to win is greater than the chance to win as determined by the juice (I belive some refer to this as the break even point), I will lay a ML bet at .25x
I may bet more than .25x all the way up to .75x but this way my winings on the ATS cover my ML bet and if I win, great. If I lose, it's a caculated risk that pays off in the long run in the order of about 12x a season.
Very rarely do I bet ONLY a ML because generally why would you bet a ML on an underdog and not bet the side too? If you think they win SU you inherently think they can beat the spread.
I don't bet ML favorites simply because I know myself and if I do that, I am probably chasing loses.
I started doing this with MMA fights (minus the sides of course) since in major MMA fights an underdogs chance to win is almost ALWAYS greater than the ML is giving him. I love the play so much I adapted it to how I bet college.
I find that it also keeps me honest in my ATS bets in a weird way.
0
On the note of "how ML bets work" I will say what I like to do is take my 2-4 favorite underdog ATS bets and look at their ML juice. If I feel the chance to win is greater than the chance to win as determined by the juice (I belive some refer to this as the break even point), I will lay a ML bet at .25x
I may bet more than .25x all the way up to .75x but this way my winings on the ATS cover my ML bet and if I win, great. If I lose, it's a caculated risk that pays off in the long run in the order of about 12x a season.
Very rarely do I bet ONLY a ML because generally why would you bet a ML on an underdog and not bet the side too? If you think they win SU you inherently think they can beat the spread.
I don't bet ML favorites simply because I know myself and if I do that, I am probably chasing loses.
I started doing this with MMA fights (minus the sides of course) since in major MMA fights an underdogs chance to win is almost ALWAYS greater than the ML is giving him. I love the play so much I adapted it to how I bet college.
I find that it also keeps me honest in my ATS bets in a weird way.
if you look at the side and the ML on those bets i've made this year... i am like 3.5 units ahead on the ML, and 5.5 units ahead on the sides... that is a 9 unit profit, and i have only risked 8 units on those games...
8 units risked to gain 9 units of profit...
consider that if you were a 75% handicapper ATS, 8 units risked will result in a 4 unit profit... and that's at 75%!!!
seriously...
meh, nevermind... can't convince some people...
0
str8 up, str8!
if you look at the side and the ML on those bets i've made this year... i am like 3.5 units ahead on the ML, and 5.5 units ahead on the sides... that is a 9 unit profit, and i have only risked 8 units on those games...
8 units risked to gain 9 units of profit...
consider that if you were a 75% handicapper ATS, 8 units risked will result in a 4 unit profit... and that's at 75%!!!
to many people that sounds dumb... last week someone said betting MLs seems like a great way to lose money... i am 8-5 on them (and yes, i do bet all of them on the side, too... 12-1 ATS)... that means i have only lost money on 1 ML bet this year...
the only thing i care about with a ML bet is this... value... Oregon is +575... that means, if i think they could beat USC 1 in 7 tries, then it is a good bet... especially if i am highly certain they will cover the spread, because that means i am getting 2:1 value on a free ML bet...
that is NOT a good way to lose money... it is literally free money... i know i will finish at least 50% on ML bets, and at least 70% on the sides... that means i will more than double my money on those plays...
rexiv, sorry i missed yours... no i definitely do not like Marshall... its clearly a public play... just go check out the game thread... this Cincy team was competitive with Oklahoma because they have a strong defense... Marshall would get absolutely annihilated by OU... there's no reason people should be in love with Marshall tonight... either bet Cincy, bet the under, or don't bet the game...
A Much more eloquently stated way of saying exactly what I was getting at. Thank you. I LOVE ML dogs. They also have the benefit of being a lot of fun. It's just great to see a +480 bet pay, even if it is at a fraction of your normal unit.
I think MMA is the VERY BEST example of how ML underdogs can and should be properly bet BTW. The public has a HUGE hand in driving that juice and it really is a punchers chance. Most MMA fights are at the MOST a 60/40 split as far as who is going to win. Some juice is upwards of 80/20 against the dog....thats pure profit right there in between those two numbers.
0
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:
to many people that sounds dumb... last week someone said betting MLs seems like a great way to lose money... i am 8-5 on them (and yes, i do bet all of them on the side, too... 12-1 ATS)... that means i have only lost money on 1 ML bet this year...
the only thing i care about with a ML bet is this... value... Oregon is +575... that means, if i think they could beat USC 1 in 7 tries, then it is a good bet... especially if i am highly certain they will cover the spread, because that means i am getting 2:1 value on a free ML bet...
that is NOT a good way to lose money... it is literally free money... i know i will finish at least 50% on ML bets, and at least 70% on the sides... that means i will more than double my money on those plays...
rexiv, sorry i missed yours... no i definitely do not like Marshall... its clearly a public play... just go check out the game thread... this Cincy team was competitive with Oklahoma because they have a strong defense... Marshall would get absolutely annihilated by OU... there's no reason people should be in love with Marshall tonight... either bet Cincy, bet the under, or don't bet the game...
A Much more eloquently stated way of saying exactly what I was getting at. Thank you. I LOVE ML dogs. They also have the benefit of being a lot of fun. It's just great to see a +480 bet pay, even if it is at a fraction of your normal unit.
I think MMA is the VERY BEST example of how ML underdogs can and should be properly bet BTW. The public has a HUGE hand in driving that juice and it really is a punchers chance. Most MMA fights are at the MOST a 60/40 split as far as who is going to win. Some juice is upwards of 80/20 against the dog....thats pure profit right there in between those two numbers.
phan... would have said the over looks good until i heard it could be raining throughout the game...
mazda... what people don't seem to understand about ML bets... i have 8 this week (i think)... i need to only win 2 of those 8 to win the ML part of those plays to get my money back... depending on who wins 2-6 would actually be a profit... and that's without even figuring the sides, which would automatically be 2-6 at worst, and most likely 4-4 or better... meaning i lose no money on those either... and if i should go 4-4 on the MLs (which i usually do), then it is double up time...
0
phan... would have said the over looks good until i heard it could be raining throughout the game...
mazda... what people don't seem to understand about ML bets... i have 8 this week (i think)... i need to only win 2 of those 8 to win the ML part of those plays to get my money back... depending on who wins 2-6 would actually be a profit... and that's without even figuring the sides, which would automatically be 2-6 at worst, and most likely 4-4 or better... meaning i lose no money on those either... and if i should go 4-4 on the MLs (which i usually do), then it is double up time...
Hi Shepherd ! Thanks for the hard work you put into this forum . what do you think about INDIANA +7 . do you have any early game like 12 to 1 pm . Thanks
0
Hi Shepherd ! Thanks for the hard work you put into this forum . what do you think about INDIANA +7 . do you have any early game like 12 to 1 pm . Thanks
Just curious as to your logic on Purdue. I understand the public has somewhat gotten hold of the Penn State ride, but I still think they're being underestimated here. I see this as a 38-17 type game.
Also, don't let that 10% of haters/bashers keep you from posting here. They're what kept me off this site for so long, but the other 90% of dialogue more than makes up for it IMO. GL rest of the way
0
Tough break on BYU shep
Love your Arizona St, Nevada, and Rice picks.
Just curious as to your logic on Purdue. I understand the public has somewhat gotten hold of the Penn State ride, but I still think they're being underestimated here. I see this as a 38-17 type game.
Also, don't let that 10% of haters/bashers keep you from posting here. They're what kept me off this site for so long, but the other 90% of dialogue more than makes up for it IMO. GL rest of the way
tatomka... badass pic... what the fuck!? i want that!
yea i've had two infuriating losses the last two nights (OSU ML last night and BYU tonight)...
Purdue plays Penn St close every year... even in 2005 when PSU was 11-1 they couldn't blow out Purdue... someone pointed out this trend to me, and when i actually looked at the scores in this series this game really started to jump out at me... Purdue is a live dog, and at 5:1 odds (ML) and getting 2 TDs at home, the value is too much to ignore for me...
0
tatomka... badass pic... what the fuck!? i want that!
yea i've had two infuriating losses the last two nights (OSU ML last night and BYU tonight)...
Purdue plays Penn St close every year... even in 2005 when PSU was 11-1 they couldn't blow out Purdue... someone pointed out this trend to me, and when i actually looked at the scores in this series this game really started to jump out at me... Purdue is a live dog, and at 5:1 odds (ML) and getting 2 TDs at home, the value is too much to ignore for me...
Az. State, Tx. Tech, Tennessee, Nevada,Oregon, V. Tech, Bowling Green, Mizzou, Auburn, Fresno State, Rice, Illinois, Florida, N.C. State, Duke.. South Carolina,thinking about Air Force and Kentucky.
0
I might add the Purdue in the morning..
Right now I have
Az. State, Tx. Tech, Tennessee, Nevada,Oregon, V. Tech, Bowling Green, Mizzou, Auburn, Fresno State, Rice, Illinois, Florida, N.C. State, Duke.. South Carolina,thinking about Air Force and Kentucky.
Shep, on my way to Laughlin NV for this weekend's action I run across Football Friday on Phoenix's sports radio 4:20pm call in with The Brandon Lang. So I call and get through, and present the TX-Tech/K-St game for his best play on it, and without hesitation said the OVER is looking good and he really pounded K-St on their game with Illinois.
Just wanted to share that on your thread.
Stay with the site, very few others can match you here!
0
Shep, on my way to Laughlin NV for this weekend's action I run across Football Friday on Phoenix's sports radio 4:20pm call in with The Brandon Lang. So I call and get through, and present the TX-Tech/K-St game for his best play on it, and without hesitation said the OVER is looking good and he really pounded K-St on their game with Illinois.
Just wanted to share that on your thread.
Stay with the site, very few others can match you here!
phancard... i agree... Stanford is a very good dog and a good ML play... might add it, but might not... maybe see how some morning games go...
redriver... was trying to figure out what you meant on this comment, "he really pounded K-St on their game with Illinois."... if you read this get back to me... i know KSt and Illinois haven't played, so not sure what you meant to say...
0
phancard... i agree... Stanford is a very good dog and a good ML play... might add it, but might not... maybe see how some morning games go...
redriver... was trying to figure out what you meant on this comment, "he really pounded K-St on their game with Illinois."... if you read this get back to me... i know KSt and Illinois haven't played, so not sure what you meant to say...
RR... i see... not sure what that means, since obviously he was wrong about the KSt-L'Ville game (as was i)... maybe, like me, he saw in that game that KSt can't defend against the pass, and that's why he likes the over... and i would agree...
0
RR... i see... not sure what that means, since obviously he was wrong about the KSt-L'Ville game (as was i)... maybe, like me, he saw in that game that KSt can't defend against the pass, and that's why he likes the over... and i would agree...
i should be asleep right now, but i'm not, so getting to my best bet write-ups quickly:
Tx Tech (-6.5): this is mostly a bet against the Kansas St defense... i remember when KSt was literally my single favorite team to bet on... and the reason was defense... they could lay (-41) with no problem because they were a lock to shut down teams... it's sad to see how bad they play defense now... teams like Louisville and La-Laf have lit them up through the air... that is gonna be bad bad news against a team that has a blisteringly potent passing attack... and... TT is off of a bye... a position i really like during the mid-season stretch... this is the best over play this week TT: 58-35
Tennessee (-16): ok, first of all, i have two bets on this... one is at (-16)... the other i bought down to (-13.5) from (-15)... regardless, this is the easiest pick of the week... stock on Tennessee is as low as it gets... UT basically boils down to this... bet against UT when they play teams that are physically dominant on their level but have better play-makers... bet on UT when they play teams that can't matchup with them physically... UT O-line averages 308 lbs... NIU D-line averages 257 lbs... (that's a difference of 50+ lbs for those bad at math)... to take it further, Arian Foster outweighs most of their LBs, and they are gonna be the ones who have to try to tackle him... NIU gave up 175 rushing yards to WMichigan's top RB... no concerns at all about who plays QB... Fulmer could play for all i care... just don't fumble the damn handoffs and it will be smooth sailing... 350+ rushing yards... UT: 45-10
Nevada (-23.5): forget about the fact that Utah St scored 14 4th Q points against BYU to kill my bet last night... Utah St is a bottom 5 football team in CFB, by my accounts... for 3 Q they showed that last night, and then BYU let up and Ut St got a couple of Ra Ra TDs... good for them... why am i talking about Utah St? because Utah St trounced Idaho 42-17 two weeks ago... just as bad, SD St (who lost to Cal-Poly Slo... a surfing school) beat Idaho 45-17 last week... Idaho is the worst team in Div 1 CFB... have given up at least 40 points to all Div 1 opponents this year... 4 Div 1 teams have averaged 55 pts per game against Idaho this year... their opponents are covering the spread by a whopping 26 ppg this year... and no they haven't been playing the likes of OU every week... Arizona (not an offensive juggernaut) beat them 70-0... Idaho is 1-12 ATS dating back to last year (interestingly, the cover was a 16 pt loss against Nevada as an 18 pt dog last year... but that was the post-Boise triple-OT game on the blue turf, which created an inflated value on Nevada, and was CKs first start... Nev was a DD favorite coming off a 3OT loss... never a cover situation)... Idaho is unquestionably the worst team in CFB going back the past 3 years... they are working on a 20 game losing streak against Div 1 foes, dating back to 2006... ok, on to Nevada... they are a football team... good enough for me! Nev: 52-20
seriously though... Nevada started their season by tuning up with a very impressive schedule, playing Tx Tech and Missouri... the results showed in their 49-27 pasting of UNLV last week... CK and co. can put up some points in a hurry against bad defenses... have i mentioned Idaho has a bad defense? (out of 119 teams... 118 total D, 116 vs. pass, 108 vs. run)... just as much as playing on the Elite teams in the country is a good way to win money, so is playing against the bottom dwellers...
sorry it took so long to get these done... spent too much time answering questions and looking at games this week...
GL peeps!
0
i should be asleep right now, but i'm not, so getting to my best bet write-ups quickly:
Tx Tech (-6.5): this is mostly a bet against the Kansas St defense... i remember when KSt was literally my single favorite team to bet on... and the reason was defense... they could lay (-41) with no problem because they were a lock to shut down teams... it's sad to see how bad they play defense now... teams like Louisville and La-Laf have lit them up through the air... that is gonna be bad bad news against a team that has a blisteringly potent passing attack... and... TT is off of a bye... a position i really like during the mid-season stretch... this is the best over play this week TT: 58-35
Tennessee (-16): ok, first of all, i have two bets on this... one is at (-16)... the other i bought down to (-13.5) from (-15)... regardless, this is the easiest pick of the week... stock on Tennessee is as low as it gets... UT basically boils down to this... bet against UT when they play teams that are physically dominant on their level but have better play-makers... bet on UT when they play teams that can't matchup with them physically... UT O-line averages 308 lbs... NIU D-line averages 257 lbs... (that's a difference of 50+ lbs for those bad at math)... to take it further, Arian Foster outweighs most of their LBs, and they are gonna be the ones who have to try to tackle him... NIU gave up 175 rushing yards to WMichigan's top RB... no concerns at all about who plays QB... Fulmer could play for all i care... just don't fumble the damn handoffs and it will be smooth sailing... 350+ rushing yards... UT: 45-10
Nevada (-23.5): forget about the fact that Utah St scored 14 4th Q points against BYU to kill my bet last night... Utah St is a bottom 5 football team in CFB, by my accounts... for 3 Q they showed that last night, and then BYU let up and Ut St got a couple of Ra Ra TDs... good for them... why am i talking about Utah St? because Utah St trounced Idaho 42-17 two weeks ago... just as bad, SD St (who lost to Cal-Poly Slo... a surfing school) beat Idaho 45-17 last week... Idaho is the worst team in Div 1 CFB... have given up at least 40 points to all Div 1 opponents this year... 4 Div 1 teams have averaged 55 pts per game against Idaho this year... their opponents are covering the spread by a whopping 26 ppg this year... and no they haven't been playing the likes of OU every week... Arizona (not an offensive juggernaut) beat them 70-0... Idaho is 1-12 ATS dating back to last year (interestingly, the cover was a 16 pt loss against Nevada as an 18 pt dog last year... but that was the post-Boise triple-OT game on the blue turf, which created an inflated value on Nevada, and was CKs first start... Nev was a DD favorite coming off a 3OT loss... never a cover situation)... Idaho is unquestionably the worst team in CFB going back the past 3 years... they are working on a 20 game losing streak against Div 1 foes, dating back to 2006... ok, on to Nevada... they are a football team... good enough for me! Nev: 52-20
seriously though... Nevada started their season by tuning up with a very impressive schedule, playing Tx Tech and Missouri... the results showed in their 49-27 pasting of UNLV last week... CK and co. can put up some points in a hurry against bad defenses... have i mentioned Idaho has a bad defense? (out of 119 teams... 118 total D, 116 vs. pass, 108 vs. run)... just as much as playing on the Elite teams in the country is a good way to win money, so is playing against the bottom dwellers...
sorry it took so long to get these done... spent too much time answering questions and looking at games this week...
side note on Tennessee... over the years i have found that is very profitable to bet against Tennessee when people are buying their stock (believing the hype), and bet on them when people are selling their stock (jumping off the wagon)... there seems to be a psychology that Fulmer is able to tap into when they are down, but can't sustain it when expectations are high...
just an observation...
0
side note on Tennessee... over the years i have found that is very profitable to bet against Tennessee when people are buying their stock (believing the hype), and bet on them when people are selling their stock (jumping off the wagon)... there seems to be a psychology that Fulmer is able to tap into when they are down, but can't sustain it when expectations are high...
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Shepherd
Hot Forum Topics
