Alabama has won ten straight at home dating back to the beginning of January,
but the Crimson Tide have not been particularly adept at winning by pointspread
covering margins. The results don’t lie.
Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk, and only one
of their last nine wins at home came by more than ten points – a revenge matchup
against lowly Auburn. Plain and simple – the Tide are not a team that runs up
margins, making them a poor double digit favorite tonight.
To make matters worse for Alabama, they’re playing without senior guard
Andrew Steele again, out with an ankle injury that is expected to end his
season, even if the Crimson Tide advance. When Steele missed the entire month
of December, Alabama lost three times at home to lesser teams – Dayton, Mercer
and Tulane – as big favorites every time.
Northeastern is coming to play! Alabama head coach Anthony Grant, talking
about his counterpart Bill Coen on the Huskies sideline: “His teams play hard.
They don’t beat themselves. Extremely physical team. They’re typically a pretty
balanced team. He’s playing about 11 guys. He’s got guys that shoot it, guys
that get to the rim, get to the free-throw line. I think they’ve made more free
throws than their opponents have taken. Just a very tough, hard-nosed team.”
The Huskies have lost only two games all year by more than tonight’s spread. I
don’t expect a third!
Northeastern +11
Alabama has won ten straight at home dating back to the beginning of January,
but the Crimson Tide have not been particularly adept at winning by pointspread
covering margins. The results don’t lie.
Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk, and only one
of their last nine wins at home came by more than ten points – a revenge matchup
against lowly Auburn. Plain and simple – the Tide are not a team that runs up
margins, making them a poor double digit favorite tonight.
To make matters worse for Alabama, they’re playing without senior guard
Andrew Steele again, out with an ankle injury that is expected to end his
season, even if the Crimson Tide advance. When Steele missed the entire month
of December, Alabama lost three times at home to lesser teams – Dayton, Mercer
and Tulane – as big favorites every time.
Northeastern is coming to play! Alabama head coach Anthony Grant, talking
about his counterpart Bill Coen on the Huskies sideline: “His teams play hard.
They don’t beat themselves. Extremely physical team. They’re typically a pretty
balanced team. He’s playing about 11 guys. He’s got guys that shoot it, guys
that get to the rim, get to the free-throw line. I think they’ve made more free
throws than their opponents have taken. Just a very tough, hard-nosed team.”
The Huskies have lost only two games all year by more than tonight’s spread. I
don’t expect a third!
A tough situational spot for Portland, the second of a back to back
road spot. Portland is on a 16-5 run over the total and 26th in the NBA
in field goal shooting defense, allowing .467% shooting by opponents.
The over is 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. While
Portland is in the second of a back to back spot, the Bucks are home and
rested, so they will run right at the Blazers with their great guard
depth. The Bucks defense, though, is spotty, off an embarrassing home
loss to Orlando Sunday giving up 106 points, part of a 7-2 run over the
total. The defense has allowed 100 or more points in 9 of the last 10
games. And when these teams meet the over is 14-5 in the last 19
meetings.
Portland/Milw over 208
A tough situational spot for Portland, the second of a back to back
road spot. Portland is on a 16-5 run over the total and 26th in the NBA
in field goal shooting defense, allowing .467% shooting by opponents.
The over is 5-1 in the Blazers last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. While
Portland is in the second of a back to back spot, the Bucks are home and
rested, so they will run right at the Blazers with their great guard
depth. The Bucks defense, though, is spotty, off an embarrassing home
loss to Orlando Sunday giving up 106 points, part of a 7-2 run over the
total. The defense has allowed 100 or more points in 9 of the last 10
games. And when these teams meet the over is 14-5 in the last 19
meetings.
Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Clippers are 1-4
ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in
their last 6 games following a S.U. loss & 4-0 ATS in their last 4
games following a ATS loss.
From a source on a 6-0 run. SACRAMENTO +10
Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Clippers are 1-4
ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in
their last 6 games following a S.U. loss & 4-0 ATS in their last 4
games following a ATS loss.
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Kentucky was en route to
cutting the nets down, winning the National Championship. I won big w/
the Wildcats throughout their championship run, but this year is a far
different story as UK might once again be a #1 seed - but this time,
it's in the NIT! I can't think of a more disinterested team for this
event and as a result will call for an early exit... To make matters worse for Kentucky, they got a raw deal here.
Despite being the #1 overall seed in the 32-team NIT field, they must
open on the road due to Lexington being used as a NCAA Tournament site.
Whoops!
The opponent is Robert Morris, regular season champs in the
Northeast Conference, which guaranteed the Colonials a spot in the NIT
field. Of course, like Kentucky, they would have much rather prefered
the Big Dance, but getting to host the defending national champions is a
pretty decent consolation prize for RMU. Obviously, to get here, the
Colonials had to come up short in their conference tournament, but that
doesn't mean they're not motivated here. Said coach Andy Toole, "I feel
like Rocky in Rocky 1 who just got his shot against the champions in our
home city. We're extremely excited. It's incredible. It shouldn't be
hard to get the team prepared. It's going to be a crazy, crazy event."
One player tweeted that he was "breathless" over getting to play UK.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats, who are just 4-4 straight up since their
best player Nerlens Noel went down with an injury, probably couldn't
care less here. Take the points.
Robert Morris +4
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Kentucky was en route to
cutting the nets down, winning the National Championship. I won big w/
the Wildcats throughout their championship run, but this year is a far
different story as UK might once again be a #1 seed - but this time,
it's in the NIT! I can't think of a more disinterested team for this
event and as a result will call for an early exit... To make matters worse for Kentucky, they got a raw deal here.
Despite being the #1 overall seed in the 32-team NIT field, they must
open on the road due to Lexington being used as a NCAA Tournament site.
Whoops!
The opponent is Robert Morris, regular season champs in the
Northeast Conference, which guaranteed the Colonials a spot in the NIT
field. Of course, like Kentucky, they would have much rather prefered
the Big Dance, but getting to host the defending national champions is a
pretty decent consolation prize for RMU. Obviously, to get here, the
Colonials had to come up short in their conference tournament, but that
doesn't mean they're not motivated here. Said coach Andy Toole, "I feel
like Rocky in Rocky 1 who just got his shot against the champions in our
home city. We're extremely excited. It's incredible. It shouldn't be
hard to get the team prepared. It's going to be a crazy, crazy event."
One player tweeted that he was "breathless" over getting to play UK.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats, who are just 4-4 straight up since their
best player Nerlens Noel went down with an injury, probably couldn't
care less here. Take the points.
St. Joe’s is off a tough 3 point loss to VCU last out and is 9-1 ats in
games after allowing 80 or more. In the first round of the NIT They are
14-5 and have covered 5 of 6 on Tuesday. St. Johns has lost 5 straight
while shooting under 40% in 4 of those games. They were beat by double
digits by Villanova in their last game and are 3-6 vs teams who allow 65
or less and lost and failed to cover both times in no home games when
the total is 120 to 130. Look for St. Joe’s to win and cover here
tonight.
St Joseph -7
St. Joe’s is off a tough 3 point loss to VCU last out and is 9-1 ats in
games after allowing 80 or more. In the first round of the NIT They are
14-5 and have covered 5 of 6 on Tuesday. St. Johns has lost 5 straight
while shooting under 40% in 4 of those games. They were beat by double
digits by Villanova in their last game and are 3-6 vs teams who allow 65
or less and lost and failed to cover both times in no home games when
the total is 120 to 130. Look for St. Joe’s to win and cover here
tonight.
Yes, we are aware that Denver played last night. Yes, we are aware
that Denver went into OVERTIME last night. Novice players and
handicappers might assume that an AUTOMATIC play on the THUNDER is
warranted under those conditions. But before you lay the (almost)
DOUBLE-DIGITS in this game..... hear me out.
Denver is the HOTTEST team in the NBA right now. Last night's win
over Chicago was their 12th STRAIGHT win... which is tied for BEST
winning streak in Nuggets history. I am NOT gonna be fading this team
this evening. And when you see all applicable situations that apply to
this game, then perhaps you'll be joining me in playing the UNDERDOG
Nuggets.
*NBA home favorites of -7 > points (Okla City) have gone 3-13 ATS on TUESDAYS this season.
*NBA teams with a .666 > winning percentage (NUGGETS) have gone 11-1 ATS this season as underdogs of +7 > points.
*Since January, NBA road underdogs with NO REST and playing off a
road win (DENVER) have gone 12-2 ATS vs any opponent also off a SU win
(Okla City). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as underdogs of +7
> points.
*Conference underdogs playing with NO REST off a road OVERTIME win (DENVER) have gone 11-1 ATS in the last 5 seasons.
DENVER: 9-1 ATS as dogs of +7 > pts last 2 years... 17-6 ATS on
TUESDAYS (6-2 ATS as dogs)... 7-1 ATS in the 2nd of BB road games with
NO REST vs any opp off a SU win.
Oklahoma City: 1-6 ATS as TUESDAY division home favs of < 12
pts... 4-15 ATS since 1998 at home vs a conference opponent with NO REST
off a SU road win.
One more then I am gone!
Denver Nuggets +10
Yes, we are aware that Denver played last night. Yes, we are aware
that Denver went into OVERTIME last night. Novice players and
handicappers might assume that an AUTOMATIC play on the THUNDER is
warranted under those conditions. But before you lay the (almost)
DOUBLE-DIGITS in this game..... hear me out.
Denver is the HOTTEST team in the NBA right now. Last night's win
over Chicago was their 12th STRAIGHT win... which is tied for BEST
winning streak in Nuggets history. I am NOT gonna be fading this team
this evening. And when you see all applicable situations that apply to
this game, then perhaps you'll be joining me in playing the UNDERDOG
Nuggets.
*NBA home favorites of -7 > points (Okla City) have gone 3-13 ATS on TUESDAYS this season.
*NBA teams with a .666 > winning percentage (NUGGETS) have gone 11-1 ATS this season as underdogs of +7 > points.
*Since January, NBA road underdogs with NO REST and playing off a
road win (DENVER) have gone 12-2 ATS vs any opponent also off a SU win
(Okla City). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS as underdogs of +7
> points.
*Conference underdogs playing with NO REST off a road OVERTIME win (DENVER) have gone 11-1 ATS in the last 5 seasons.
DENVER: 9-1 ATS as dogs of +7 > pts last 2 years... 17-6 ATS on
TUESDAYS (6-2 ATS as dogs)... 7-1 ATS in the 2nd of BB road games with
NO REST vs any opp off a SU win.
Oklahoma City: 1-6 ATS as TUESDAY division home favs of < 12
pts... 4-15 ATS since 1998 at home vs a conference opponent with NO REST
off a SU road win.
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