Quote Originally Posted by PatsGrl:

Well I really wasn't expecting to watch NE vs Giants in this year's Superbowl.  A little dissapointed the Packers or Cowboys didn't make it but overall I'm satisfied my team is there.  Congrats to all the G-MEN fans.  It was a rough year for your team but you guys surely made it fair and square. 

Not much to say about this one, as many of you already had the opportunity to watch these two teams play each other a few weeks ago and the Giants surely almost gave my Pats a run for our money.  I'm a little curious as to why they set this line so high when clearly the Pats have not been as dominant as they were earlier this season.  IMO this line should be nowhere more than 7 but of course the line makers have been screwing me lately with these ridiculous NE spreads.  For those who want to play Giants - I advise you pound it now because they are a public dog right now and the line will not be increasing anytime soon.

As for me, I'll wait until this line creeps down and if I'm still not satisfied I will be forced to play a teaser on my team with the over.  I'm definitely not big on teasers but in this case I don't think I really have a choice unless this line moves down but I don't think it will move much... and no offense, but I can't spend my Superbowl Sunday rooting for the Giants.

I still can't believe football season is 1-game away from being over. 

The Super Bowl line was set with AFC-13 as a future well before the teams were decided. Patriots are a gift here at anything less than 2 td's - complete overreaction from everyone betting on what they've seen over the 2nd half of the season & the Patriots not covering big spreads (I've been against them in all but the Jax game) and the Giants playoff run. Pats were down 12 and still got the win in the first game, Moss has been missing for the last two weeks, Brady in a soft cast, all previous SB wins were by 3, etc, etc, etc.

NOTHING SAYS BET THE PATRIOTS BUT THE LINE IS DOUBLE DIGITS

Take your Patriots, enjoy the win & the season and make some money while you are at it. As much as I hate them and will continue to hate them, they cover this game easily. Think Niners/Chargers SB type of blowout.

It will be intresting to see if Eli shows up on the 3rd he has a tendancy to get frustrated and pull a Farve and start putting the ball up for grabs. He needs to stay cool and make good decisions. But what i think will really decide the game is the Gmen's D line vs the Pats O line. If they can get to Tom Brady and get them throwing I think we will see a tight game or even a Giants victory. But that might be wishful thinking and I for some reason have a soft spot for the giants, or I just hate the pats (smug bastards). But I like the match up this year and think it will be one of the better ones in the past few.

Take the Points!!!!!!

Taking GMEN +12.5,

GL ALL

I respect your prognasticative abilities as much as almost anyone in here 3rd.......but, I too have been going against the 2-8ats( the last 10 games) Pats for the later part of the year.......all except for the Giants in week 17 and last week against the banged up Chargers.........and as you know those were losers if you were on the Pats........No way in hell the Pats cover more than 11.......not with that defense.......not going against a team that had them down 12 in the later 3rd quarter in week 17......not against a team that is showing the ability to run the ball at will and who is picking off an average of 2 balls per game..........The Giants will find a way to get to 17-20 points........which should be enough to say within the chalk.......but the Pats probably find a way to win a close game in the fourth quarter. 

I for one will not be giving up Vegas's ridiculous number on that team anymore......they have inflated every line on the Pats since mid October.........and since then......they have made back more than they lost in the first 8 weeks of the season when the Pats went 8-0 ATS!!!  With the heaviest wagered game of the year looming.......you can best bet that there are 3-6 points on this game that have no rhyme or reason of being there except.......to protect and help insulate against the onslaught of Pats money that will come the last day or two before kickoff.  GL though my man.......I will certainly tip my hat to you if this game even remotely resembles the SF/SD game you mentioned. 

Nice write up CM......I sure will miss reading some of you guys thoughts until next season........When is the NFL gonna play a second season within the season.......Survivor does it?  Why can't they???

You won't see too much last minute Pats money here. If anything it will be sharps buying back off the +14 the took on the opener.

This game may go down to 10.5 or MAYBE 10 before 2/3/08, and will go no higher than 12 or 12.5 by kickoff.

Everyone who is even a casual bettor knows that the Pats have been awful against the number, but not many know exactly why. When was the last time you saw them take a shot down the field? They didn't do it for the entire postseason, and they didn't do it often over the second half of the regular season. Where has Moss been for the last two weeks? The Pats haven't played a game in decent weather for about 10 weeks now, it's been either rainy or windy and they have taken what defenses have given them and have been content to get a W and get out.

This team totally outclaasses the Giants on the offensive side of the ball, and is about even on defense. This one will come down to the secondary of the Giants, and they will get torched. Pats hung 38 on them in a "meaningless" game in the regular season at the Meadowlands. How many points do you think they can score in a perfect environment with two weeks to prepare?

Over the last two games, the Patriots have used Maroney in the run game and Faulk in the screen game more than they have all year. No Moss at all, not much Watson. The Patriots will not punt in this game, and they will not be kicking field goals. What do the Giants stop here? Nothing, they can't stop this offense. Let's see what Eli & company can do here when they aren't playing loose in a meaningless game away from the Meadowlands. Do you think the Giants can score 24 here? I don't, but I'm sure the Pats score somewhere in the 40's.

Jacksonville should not have covered the spread, but they barely did. San Diego had a good enough defense to play man up and go after Brady, and still lost by 9. The Giants secondary is going to get killed here, plain and simple. Let's see what Eli can do if he's down 12 in this one.

Pats won by 11 and 9 so far in the playoffs, one more or one less score gets the cover in both of those games. They will find that extra here. I HATE the Pats, but they will get the money here. I'm convinced, and I'm predicting 42-17.

'85 Patriots see themselves in '07 Giants

Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:

3rd & Long, your post rings true.  And not just cuz you're picking my team.  If you read above you'll see my initial thought was they would not fully cover the big #.

This article illustrates a relevant comparison between the '07 Giints and the '85 Patriots, both of whom won three playoff games on the road against all odds as a wild card entry, with the prize being a match with a juggernaut in the Supa Bow.  Many of you will remember watching one of the most lopsided SBs ever, as the Pats first led 3-0 and wound up losing in a laugher, 46-10.

'85 Patriots see themselves in '07 Giants

The Giants are about to be set up.  Do they still double team Moss, or do they now put a scout on Faulk?  Focus on stopping Maroney first, or the Wes Welker short passing game?  It's a trick question.  They are all trick questions with this offense.

Another key point is that the entire right side of the Pats O-line DNP'd the game in week 17.  RG Neal, RT Kaczur, and TE Kyle Brady (great blocker) were all out, and will be all-in for this game.
This will make a difference vs. the great pass rush of the Giants.

I am not predicting a game just like the Bears-Patriots, but getting the Pats at 12.5 or less is what I'll be looking for.

Another case of an important fact that doesn't get discussed. Great point. Brady never gets touched, and for that matter Favre didn't get touched last week, he just sucked. Play that game in 40 degree weather and the G-Men are playing golf.

Last year I said that Maroney was washed up for the year come playoff time - rookie wall. The kid has looked really good the last two weeks, and combine it with Faulk catching passes out of the backfield what do the Giants defend?

I don't like laying big points, I'll never like the Patriots, but it's the only way to go here.

One last point - last year people were lining up to back Grossman over Peyton, now they are falling for Eli over Brady?