Posted:
#8001
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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper
Posted:
#8003
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:
And with live betting, you can always try and create your own middle opportunities
And with live betting, you can always try and create your own middle opportunities
Valparaiso vs Maryland
Game Total
Over 122.5
-110
Risk:$220.00
To Win:$200.00
Valparaiso vs Maryland
Game Total
Under 125.5
-110
Risk:$221.00
To Win:$200.91
I live off live betting but you are only bringing up the positives. That 122.5 could have easily turned into a 115. These are hindsight comments.
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Posted:
#8004
I just want to say something about CG's bad beats.
March Madness is the second biggest money maker in Vegas after the Super Bowl.
What does that mean? These lines are incredibly sharp in certain places.
CG just happened to step right into the sharpest of sharp lines with his picks, that is, those where a free throw made or free throw missed can result in swings of thousands of dollars.
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Posted:
#8005
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I just want to say something about CG's bad beats.
March Madness is the second biggest money maker in Vegas after the Super Bowl.
What does that mean? These lines are incredibly sharp in certain places.
CG just happened to step right into the sharpest of sharp lines with his picks, that is, those where a free throw made or free throw missed can result in swings of thousands of dollars.
We've now had 10 games fall within 2 points of the spread yesterday and today. I lost Georgia and Buffalo, but odds are anyone betting the tourney is having multiple "bad beats".
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Posted:
#8008
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Nobody is really talking about CG putting exactly 2k to win 18xx on these games.
Wells Fargo not open in Vegas today?
Only has that much cash?
I think it is an unusual development.
I think you need to pay out my 4 max wagers on 1500>500 avg bet size. The norm seems to be $2000.
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Posted:
#8009
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Nobody is really talking about CG putting exactly 2k to win 18xx on these games.
Wells Fargo not open in Vegas today?
Only has that much cash?
I think it is an unusual development.
vanzack,pardon my ignorance..i havent the patience nor time to go back thru 20 million pages of tripe,wat exactly are the conditions of your bet and with whom was it made??..it was a "handshake" agreement i take it??relating to college gambler failing..
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Posted:
#8010
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
I think you need to pay out my 4 max wagers on 1500>500 avg bet size. The norm seems to be $2000.
I was hoping everyone would forget about this.
This is a winner. Pay the line. Take the don'ts.
By my calculations, if he loses this OK ST game, he is down to about 12k?
That certainly means a bomb like 5k at least is coming, and it also means he will be getting a job soon.
My buddy offered me 3,232 (yes, that is the amount - don't ask - he always does this) to settle. He is holding out hope that CG will disappear. But I think he loves it too much. He even says it in the videos. If Oregon covers - I am going to offer him 4k and we will see if that ends it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#8011
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
I live off live betting but you are only bringing up the positives. That 122.5 could have easily turned into a 115. These are hindsight comments.
True, then you lose the Vig, Who cant live with risking 20 to win 400?
Especially when the original bet is winning but looks a bit shaky.
Point was you have options that you would not have just betting entire games or even halfs.
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Posted:
#8012
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
vanzack,pardon my ignorance..i havent the patience nor time to go back thru 20 million pages of tripe,wat exactly are the conditions of your bet and with whom was it made??..it was a "handshake" agreement i take it??relating to college gambler failing..
5k. Ends on first day of NFL in September. If CG gets a job, runs out of money (his original bankroll 30k) including living expenses, or goes home before NFL kickoff I win.
The coke habit and stripper habit was just a bonus for me. I was figuring 2500 a month living expenses, but now I would say over 4k.
Needless to say my buddy texts me almost daily - and it usually just contains an amount. Today it said 3,232. But if CG goes 0-2 today, I am going to propose 4k to end this.
We make lots of bets like this all the time.10% of any bet goes to our local animal shelter - so they are the real winners here. They know us there. They laugh when we come in because they know one of us lost a bet.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#8014
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:
True, then you lose the Vig, Who cant live with risking 20 to win 400?
Especially when the original bet is winning but looks a bit shaky.
Point was you have options that you would not have just betting entire games or even halfs.
Of course the 20-1 middle (on -110 bets) is worth it at the right opportunities, especially when made instantly across 2 sites. But it looks like you simply used one site to make a bet, then hoped it could go in your favor where you could middle. Point being, your original bet could have went south and there would be no middle opportunity.
Regardless, your original premise is accurate. BUT in cg's case live betting is not for him. He makes a ridiculous amount of plays on pregame bets, can you imagine him playing live? He doesn't have the discipline for it.
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Posted:
#8016
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I was hoping everyone would forget about this.
This is a winner. Pay the line. Take the don'ts.
By my calculations, if he loses this OK ST game, he is down to about 12k?
That certainly means a bomb like 5k at least is coming, and it also means he will be getting a job soon.
My buddy offered me 3,232 (yes, that is the amount - don't ask - he always does this) to settle. He is holding out hope that CG will disappear. But I think he loves it too much. He even says it in the videos. If Oregon covers - I am going to offer him 4k and we will see if that ends it.
Hopefully he pulls out the Oregon game, but if he doesn't, I honestly don't think 5k is enough. I think we could easily be looking at a 10k all or nothing bomb.
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Posted:
#8018
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
5k. Ends on first day of NFL in September. If CG gets a job, runs out of money (his original bankroll 30k) including living expenses, or goes home before NFL kickoff I win.
The coke habit and stripper habit was just a bonus for me. I was figuring 2500 a month living expenses, but now I would say over 4k.
Needless to say my buddy texts me almost daily - and it usually just contains an amount. Today it said 3,232. But if CG goes 0-2 today, I am going to propose 4k to end this.
We make lots of bets like this all the time.10% of any bet goes to our local animal shelter - so they are the real winners here. They know us there. They laugh when we come in because they know one of us lost a bet.
ooooh,thats so righteous and big-hearted to give back from your wagers
...nice to hear.
...nice to hear.wat on gods green earth possessed him to back college gambler to last that long??....i mean its not ludicrous to suggest on a hunch that he mite have a chance to struggle through wat isnt his best sport by a long shot....but to put $$$ behind it??
...i think the consensus would agree the odds were strongly in your favour.
...i think the consensus would agree the odds were strongly in your favour.altho,im guessing 5 grand aint a significant sum to either of you??,as it is to many of us
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Posted:
#8019
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Of course the 20-1 middle (on -110 bets) is worth it at the right opportunities, especially when made instantly across 2 sites. But it looks like you simply used one site to make a bet, then hoped it could go in your favor where you could middle. Point being, your original bet could have went south and there would be no middle opportunity.
Regardless, your original premise is accurate. BUT in cg's case live betting is not for him. He makes a ridiculous amount of plays on pregame bets, can you imagine him playing live? He doesn't have the discipline for it.
The Original bet was Under 125.5
the later bet was Over 122.5
I get what your saying, Yeah, CG doesnt have the descipline for it, Not at all.
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Posted:
#8020
Quote Originally Posted by mafioso:
The Original bet was Under 125.5
the later bet was Over 122.5
I get what your saying, Yeah, CG doesnt have the descipline for it, Not at all.
I understand what you had. But that 125.5 original could have easily dropped where no more middles presented itself. Regardless it's a moot point, we agree on the premise of it being valuable and CG's potential involvement in it.
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Posted:
#8022
Hey CG -
Just watched your latest video. Seems like you are starting to feel sorry for yourself.
Some advice...
You are putting yourself in these positions. This is the life you chose. Good gamblers with a real process try to avoid close games.
Let me explain....
I have a whole model to determine point spread to results variance in NFL and NCAAF. What does that mean? It means that I have predictive stats that do not pick a winner - or point to a side - but only point to what games have the highest likelihood of the result being outside of a certain distance of the spread. I don't want to bet on coinflip games. So it is one tool I use to avoid them.
If you bet on a game that comes down to a buzzer shot, or FTs, you have already made a mistake. And yes - they will even out over time. But you have forced yourself in to such a short time period because of your ridiculous staking "strategy" that you aren't able to wait for them to even out.
So blame yourself. These bad beats would turn in to miracle wins if you just were around for a long enough time. But you are the one who comes up with random amounts to bet on these games. You are the one who has a random selection criteria. So.... you get randomness in return. The problem with your randomness is that your sample size is going to be tiny because of the relative miniscule bankroll to wager size you have.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#8023
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
ooooh,thats so righteous and big-hearted to give back from your wagers...nice to hear.
wat on gods green earth possessed him to back college gambler to last that long??....i mean its not ludicrous to suggest on a hunch that he mite have a chance to struggle through wat isnt his best sport by a long shot....but to put $$$ behind it??...i think the consensus would agree the odds were strongly in your favour.
altho,im guessing 5 grand aint a significant sum to either of you??,as it is to many of us
You have to go back over a month ago - to the beginning of the thread.
There weren't many saying he wouldn't make it 6 months. He sounded serious. He said he had great "money mgmt.".
So now of course it sounds like a slam dunk - but back then I would say most thought he would make it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#8024
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
vanzack,pardon my ignorance..i havent the patience nor time to go back thru 20 million pages of tripe,wat exactly are the conditions of your bet and with whom was it made??..it was a "handshake" agreement i take it??relating to college gambler failing..
Keep in mind this is the same vanzack that made a wager he could be on a boat full of women and have the biggest titts.
He won the bet.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
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Posted:
#8025
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
Keep in mind this is the same vanzack that made a wager he could be on a boat full of women and have the biggest titts.
He won the bet.
Keep in mind this is the same vanzack that made a wager he could be on a boat full of women and have the biggest titts.
He won the bet.
It was just the angle of that pic.
Here is another one. My tits aren't so big.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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