Hot Seat... Week 1 .... VANZACK

Covers.com, USA.

i have one last question and i will never bust your balls

if i got -180 you would dress up in a boy scout uniform for the giant, is their anyway i could parlay this?

What percent of you total gambling bank roll are you playing with on a monthly basis? Related, what are you willing to lose % wise of your total available funds on a monthly basis? 

My "total gambling bank roll" is hard to define.  And I dont use arbitrary time periods like "months" to factor in to anything.  I use time frames like seasons, and terms like bankroll are goals to me.  Im not being evasive or a dick - just explaining that those terms dont really apply to what I do.  I set a goal, and I set a stop gap on the downside, and I evaluate both after every set of wagers.  So in a football season, I set a goal.  My goal is calculated from some very specific inputs (look in the archives for a thread with "manifesto" in the title) - if you have the 6 inputs I describe in that thread - you can easily determine a betting amount.  Mine are very realistic, and would be considered pedestrian by lots of people.  I am a grinder.  I look for value and I bet it - hopefully in volume. 

I have had terrible months, but nothing where I would say "I need to stop because this is a bad month, I will pick it back up on the first of next month" - the time period of a month is not so important to me.  But I have had months where I have been on my knees.  It happens to everyone.

Would you consider playing on credit at this point?  If you lost all the money you have available and allocated, would you stop or keep playing on a credit basis?

I would and do play on credit, but not because I need credit.  It is more the landscape of certain "arrangements" I have in order to bet at places like Pinnacle and Betfair.  I would never bet money I dont have, and if I ever got close to losing a lot of my money, I would stop gambling long before I would even be faced with that decision - but the decision would be no - it goes against why I do this.

Do you use a system (someone's or your own to determine games) or do you just break a game down by the numbers?

Very simply -

For me, I come up with a gut line - a 2 minute thought process that puts a line where I think the RESULT will land, NOT predicting the betting line.   Then I run numbers and come up with a statistics line.

I mash them together - depending on what is working lately - and what time of the season it is (late means more stats) - and come up with a line.

Now that I have a line, I compare it to the real line.  Depending on the difference between my line and the available market line, I bet accordingly.

And it is very important to look backwards at results.  Tweak your formulas and your gut based on results.  As simple as it sounds - I think this is the critical flaw of most gamblers - once a game is over they move on and dont learn anything.  Compare how close your line is to the real results - and come up with some kind of analysis that will help tweak your process.

Have you ever considered quitting gambling due to poor performance?  For example, maybe you lost you ass a few months ina row.

I think anyone would be lying if they said they hadnt had a time where the losses were trying your last nerve.  But honestly, nothing - and I mean not even 20 game losing streaks - have made me consider quitting gambling than right now.  And it has nothing to do with losing or winning, it has to do with what I have to go through to get wagers down, and collect winnings or pay losings, and the amount of risk I take on to do it. 

Quote Originally Posted by jmitseff:

have you ever hit a Brazilian dime from behind?



world cup   2014 In Brazil

Nope, would love to, but that life has passed me by.

I will be there!

these are honesty questions, please beets dont get pissed at me

1. whos fault do you think it was that you lost both championship nfl games?

I lose games all the time.  I lost both championship NFL games this year.  The day before I won every EPL game I bet.  And the week before I broke even on the NFL playoff games.  I never bet enough on a single game that would make me lose balance - not even a little bit.  I assure you, you remember that I lost both of those games more than I do - I actually had to think for a minute who even played.

2. do you think its honest to say that ibcake could out handicapp you anyday on

I like LBCake - have for a long time, he is a fine capper and good poster.  But I dont think there is anyone here that has outcapped me at soccer this year.  Other sports?  Other years?  Absolutely, but 2010 soccer was vanzacks triumphant moment.

3. what port do you use in orlando when you park your canoe?

I dont have a canoe, and spend about 3 months a year in Orlando.  Really, it is Windermere, but Orlando is fine.

1. Do you like Miller High Life?

Nope.

2. Do you like frozen pizzas?

About 4 years ago I gave up all meat.  I am a vegetarian now, so I like pizza that has no meat - but yes - I like pizza.  Not really frozen pizza.

3. Do you dislike or like dogs?

Dogs are a big part of my life, in fact vanzack comes from 2 of my previous dogs (van and zack).

I was boxed a few times several years ago - if it was for the pbox riots that were between me and gamehunter - we have patched all of that up.  I dont remember the allbees incident - but I am very opinnionated and probably felt like I had been done wrong.

Im not bigger than covers.  I go for weeks at a time without posting, and nobody notices.  Covers is bigger than anyone - and thats the way it should be.  I follow the rules here, and know the boundaries - we have a sembiotic relationship.

My keyboard is sticky.

 1. What do you use to track your bets or analyze your own play? Pen and paper? Software? Excel spreadsheet?

I have excel spreadsheets full of downloads from online sites with my wagers.  I should have a better answer for you, but I dont.  I pull them in, and then format them, and them make them sortable.

2. Who exactly is the nunchuk guy?

I have no idea.  Found his pic by probably searching it on google.  I swear - that pic has such a viceral impact on people - they cant stand it and really think it is me.  I love sensing that someone thinks they are debating high level gambling with a 16 year old white rapper gang member.  I giggle like a schoolgirl sometimes.

3. What is the stupidest thing you ever bet on?

I went to the Liberty Bowl in 2009 with a bunch of gambling buddies.  I didnt have a bet on the game because my numbers told me not to, just didnt see an edge.  I was so bored, it was UK vs ECU - that I started putting out lines for every play.  WIll this play be a pass, a run, how many yards, over under for how long it will take to get a beer vendor, will the coach take his headset off - literally just calling out lines in between plays.  Long story short, I lost about 20K to my idiot friends.  That is probably the dumbest.

4. What's the longest-shot bet you have ever hit in terms of return?

I won a 6 team parlay when I was young and dumb.  But I really dont put myself in positions to hit longshots that often. 

5. Who do you respect the most in terms of capping ability and knowledge on this board? If you can't pick one person, any who you think really know what they are talking about.

Thats really tough because I dont want to leave anyone out.  But I do have a handful of people who I know "get it", and I read all of their posts.  But people come and go here too - sometimes I will be posting and say "I wonder what happened to .....".  I will tell you that I have learned, and continue to learn a ton here - you have to be perceptive and have an open mind - people think I come at them to attack them - but I really come at them to learn - and if they can hold up the scrutiny - I am sometimes very impressed.

Going to pack it in for the night, Im on post #26, I will get to every post.

From the hot seat to the toilet seat - see you all in the AM.

Gotta jump to this post #33.

Giant and others - I just received a disturbing phone call - I would watch in the next several days but I believe on a good source that Matchbook has been sold and is leaving the US market very soon.

This goes after my posts above about the political climate - and how ridiculous things have become.  This might be the final nail in the coffin for me.

I will have more to comment about your questions soon as I really didnt answer them - but just wanted to announce what I had heard.

Luckily - the only money I have offshore right now is at Pinnacle and Betfair.

I have been lucky with these book closings - somehow I have been able to avoid the messes - Im glad I have zero at MB right now.  This is my slow time, Im only betting soccer right now.  My pinnacle arrangement doesnt require that I post up a penny, so I have nothing there, and I have about enough in betfair to cover soccer.

MVP?  Sounds great.  Pay -110 at a D rated book.  Super.

Guys - my post about matchbook is not a joke.

Keep your eyes on it in the next couple of days.

Post #26 starts in the AM.

BTW - while we are on dumb bets....

I won like 2k (if my memory is right) because I figured out the scoring system on dancing with the stars.  I did research and found out in the first season like 5 years ago that it was impossible for someone to win, and very likely for the person who won to win - and bet all I could which was only about 2k I think.

Either way, I knew before the show aired that I had like a 90% chance of winning, only because I went to the website and read the scoring rules.