Posted:
#151
@bringit
Nice work!!
No Gamble No Future
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WTA Wuhan
Posted:
#153
I had a remarkable run in Beijing so time to bring the interesting players list to Wuhan and see if we can ignite some fire here.
Wuhan Interesting Players List
Note: these are not plays but instead are leans, potential plays, and/or thoughts about players with the intent of sparking discussion and input from others.
1. Jaqueline Cristian
Game spread: +5.5 (+125). Jackie had a rough few months but has found footing in China. I thought she played remarkably well in her comeback wins against Osorio and Krejcikova. Didn't catch the loss against Muchova, who eliminated both of these players in straight sets in Beijing. FWIW Muchova won 60% of the points against Cristian and 57% against Zheng. Also of note, Zheng and Cristian last played in Palermo in July when Zheng dominated 6-1, 6-1. I vividly remember that match and Cristian's form here is nothing like what I saw then.
Cristian can be an inconsistent player with her form rising and falling in waves but inconsistent players is where we have been able to make bank this year betting on players who are on "confidence runs". Players like Paolini, Noskova, Sramkova, Zhang Shuai, and others. Confidence is so ridiculously important in women's tennis, especially for middle of the pack players ranked outside the top 15 or 20. These are the players that are good enough to compete with the top players but not consistent enough to be great. This is where the money making opportunity arises. When a player gains form you try to jump on the wave early and ride it all the way until it inevitably breaks (while trying to find the next prospect/wave to ride). Most bettors look at matches based on which player is historically better than the other but for me in women's tennis I focus more on 'what have you done for me lately' because of the up and down nature of many of these middle of the pack players. Jackie is playing great and surely confident in her game right now and while that may not be enough to overcome Zheng I think she can keep it close.
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Posted:
#155
These are in no specific order at all.
2. Bronzetti
This one requires more research but I was fairly impressed watching Bronzetti this morning stepping in as an alternate for Badosa. She lost to Osorio in quallies but I've been really high on Osorio so not a bad loss to me. Most of my opinions are based on the eye test and I have a tough time keeping track of the various Wangs on tour which is why more research is required.
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Posted:
#157
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
I had a remarkable run in Beijing so time to bring the interesting players list to Wuhan and see if we can ignite some fire here. Wuhan Interesting Players List Note: these are not plays but instead are leans, potential plays, and/or thoughts about players with the intent of sparking discussion and input from others. 1. Jaqueline Cristian Game spread: +5.5 (+125). Jackie had a rough few months but has found footing in China. I thought she played remarkably well in her comeback wins against Osorio and Krejcikova. Didn't catch the loss against Muchova, who eliminated both of these players in straight sets in Beijing. FWIW Muchova won 60% of the points against Cristian and 57% against Zheng. Also of note, Zheng and Cristian last played in Palermo in July when Zheng dominated 6-1, 6-1. I vividly remember that match and Cristian's form here is nothing like what I saw then. Cristian can be an inconsistent player with her form rising and falling in waves but inconsistent players is where we have been able to make bank this year betting on players who are on "confidence runs". Players like Paolini, Noskova, Sramkova, Zhang Shuai, and others. Confidence is so ridiculously important in women's tennis, especially for middle of the pack players ranked outside the top 15 or 20. These are the players that are good enough to compete with the top players but not consistent enough to be great. This is where the money making opportunity arises. When a player gains form you try to jump on the wave early and ride it all the way until it inevitably breaks (while trying to find the next prospect/wave to ride). Most bettors look at matches based on which player is historically better than the other but for me in women's tennis I focus more on 'what have you done for me lately' because of the up and down nature of many of these middle of the pack players. Jackie is playing great and surely confident in her game right now and while that may not be enough to overcome Zheng I think she can keep it close.
I had a remarkable run in Beijing so time to bring the interesting players list to Wuhan and see if we can ignite some fire here. Wuhan Interesting Players List Note: these are not plays but instead are leans, potential plays, and/or thoughts about players with the intent of sparking discussion and input from others. 1. Jaqueline Cristian Game spread: +5.5 (+125). Jackie had a rough few months but has found footing in China. I thought she played remarkably well in her comeback wins against Osorio and Krejcikova. Didn't catch the loss against Muchova, who eliminated both of these players in straight sets in Beijing. FWIW Muchova won 60% of the points against Cristian and 57% against Zheng. Also of note, Zheng and Cristian last played in Palermo in July when Zheng dominated 6-1, 6-1. I vividly remember that match and Cristian's form here is nothing like what I saw then. Cristian can be an inconsistent player with her form rising and falling in waves but inconsistent players is where we have been able to make bank this year betting on players who are on "confidence runs". Players like Paolini, Noskova, Sramkova, Zhang Shuai, and others. Confidence is so ridiculously important in women's tennis, especially for middle of the pack players ranked outside the top 15 or 20. These are the players that are good enough to compete with the top players but not consistent enough to be great. This is where the money making opportunity arises. When a player gains form you try to jump on the wave early and ride it all the way until it inevitably breaks (while trying to find the next prospect/wave to ride). Most bettors look at matches based on which player is historically better than the other but for me in women's tennis I focus more on 'what have you done for me lately' because of the up and down nature of many of these middle of the pack players. Jackie is playing great and surely confident in her game right now and while that may not be enough to overcome Zheng I think she can keep it close.
Hard not to forget what happened to us in Palermo, that was ugly bakery special. 
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Posted:
#158
3. Kalinskaya
Alexandrova owns the h2h in this one but those matches came before Kalinskaya had her breakthrough. Kalinskaya has looked really good in most of her hard court matches this summer while Alexandrova has been consistently inconsistent. Same reason you take a chance on Kenin last night but this time you're doing it with a better and more stable player.
4. Frech
+245 is awfully tempting against Navarro in China. I've discussed this already so won't go into too much detail but Frech has been solid while Navarro has been busy pissing off the Chinese at the Olympics and then after Beijing she was so desperate for another early exit in China that she entered a 125 as a top 10 player just to embarrassingly get her early exit fix again. Frech should give her another good opportunity to do it again.
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Posted:
#160
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
@wgomel21 Agreed. But did you watch last night or against Barb? I'll back her until she starts spraying balls outside the doubles line or 3 feet behind the baseline again.
@wgomel21 Agreed. But did you watch last night or against Barb? I'll back her until she starts spraying balls outside the doubles line or 3 feet behind the baseline again.
The only match was able to watch was the Sofia match then it was the back of my eyelids. My book has it at +6 games.
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Posted:
#170
5. Kudermetova
This is a rematch from a couple weeks ago where Bea eventually went on to win the title in Seoul. My lean towards Kudermetova is based on my short term prediction of the trajectory of the two players. Bea has been gaining steam all summer which finally culminated with the title in Korea and a rise back up to 12 in the rankings. Kudermetova has been really bad for most of the year but she has definitely shown signs of life since the epic meltdown against Osorio. At the same time her ranking is in a massive freefall as her points from last year fall off, which leaves her with a choice between going with her sister to play small tournaments and qualifying or playing her butt off to get high level tournament wins so she can keep hanging with the big girls. I'm not saying Bea won't be motivated herself and she is in scary good form but at least she's already cemented herself in the top 15 for a while so she doesn't have the sense of urgency that Kuder has.
6. Erika Andreeva
See previous write-up
7. Anisimova
Amanda has been great during her resurgence in this hard swing and wgomel has to watch this match for reasons outside of the game of tennis. Marta has been up and down as usual but in China so far she's notched a shocking loss to Volynets and showed little mental fortitude today in her narrow win against Avanesyan to whom she gifted I think a total of 12 or 13 double faults. Honestly I could see big top ending this one pretty quickly.
The end
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Posted:
#172
Quote Originally Posted by wgomel21:
Quote Originally Posted by bringit: @wgomel21 Agreed. But did you watch last night or against Barb? I'll back her until she starts spraying balls outside the doubles line or 3 feet behind the baseline again. The only match was able to watch was the Sofia match then it was the back of my eyelids. My book has it at +6 games.
Quote Originally Posted by bringit: @wgomel21 Agreed. But did you watch last night or against Barb? I'll back her until she starts spraying balls outside the doubles line or 3 feet behind the baseline again. The only match was able to watch was the Sofia match then it was the back of my eyelids. My book has it at +6 games.
Yeah no whole numbers on draftkings so left with option of +6.5 (-150) or +5.5 (+125)
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