Wimbledon ATP Main Draw preview

First quarter

Djokovic won´t have more problems than maybe a close set against Mayer in his opener, 2^nd round against any of the Americans should be quite easy and 3^rd round against Chardy/Struff/Harrison/Kavcic shouldn´t pose any problems either.

I would love to see a R4 match between him and Haas, it should be a great betting spot as grass is the surface where the match-up favours Haas, I am pretty convinced he would make Djokovic´s life very hard. Tursunov/Wang/López is not the easiest draw for the German player though, it´s far from a deadcert Tommy will be able to meet Nole there, but fingers crossed for this.

It´s a pity Berdych will be clearly favoured to reach Wimbledon quarter finals betting-wise from the bottom half of this quarter, I might look for some prop on him making the semis, because I believe grass is the surface where he stands the biggest chance to beat Djokovic but odds won´t be anything special I guess.

Second quarter

I think this Wimbledon 2^nd quarter will offer us some good outright betting tips. Top seeds Ferrer and Del Potro are not reliable considering their recent form and their pedigree on this surface. It´s not that I can trust blindly on any of their rivals but there are a few very dangerous players in this section of the draw who, on an inspired week, can reach QF´s or even the semis like Kohlschreiber, Llodra, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Raonic or even the crazy Dolgopolov. I will take a deep look at the outright markets for this quarter, and it´s very likely I will advice some outright bet here.

Third quarter

This one has a Nadal vs Federer QF written all over it, don´t think it will offer us any good outright betting opportunities. Nadal´s draw looks soft because there´s no big server/hitter to make him struggle in his way to Round 3. In a possible R3 showdown against Paire, the Frenchman´s serve and backhand should be dangerous for him, but Benoit´s forehand and movement on grass is not good enough to make him fear for an early exit in my opinion.  Nadal always plays better in the second week of a Grand Slam so I don´t think anyone among Isner/Hewitt/Wawrinka will be able to beat him if they meet him in R4.

Federer, even though he´s a shadow of her former genius self, looks a cert to reach QF, his draw is quite easy for him (Hanescu, players totally out of form like Stakhovsky or Melzer, even the likes of Rosol or Jerzy Janowicz in R3 and R4 shouldn´t be able to push him more than maybe in a couple of close set).

I´d be surprised if we don´t have a quarterfinal match between Federer and Nadal. It would be the 31th clash in ATP Tour between them

Fourth quarter

Even though Tsonga´s draw is tricky I fancy him to reach QF where he should meet Murray, whose only challenging rival up until then could be an on fire Mikhail Youzhny, but I can´t see Misha winning more than one set maybe as he won´t get many free points on his serve and he´s not consistent enough not to get broken once per set imo.

So all in all, I find much more attractive betting wise the top half of the draw, bottom half looks way more predictable and I can easily see all 4 top seeding in that section of the draw reaching the finals. Pretty convinced that won´t happen in the top half

Wimbledon WTA Main Draw preview

First quarter

Same thing that I wrote in Roland Garros WTA Main Draw Preview applies here. The way Serena has been playing lately, the question should be “Who will play against her on QF from this quarter?”

Answer to this question is difficult: Kerber, Robson (despite all I still believe this girl will become very special once she matures and she´s polished by a good coach, specially in her footwork and movement on court), Kanepi, Kirilenko, Erakovic, even Bethanie Mattek-Sands (if she´s fit after her thigh injury) have chances to achieve it. But it´s hard to see past Serena to get out of this 1st quarter and oddsmaker´s and bookmakers´ betting odds will reflect that.

Second quarter

This one could get very interesting and I will try to find some good outright bet or prop with decent value because Na Li, Agnieszka Radwanska, and Roberta Vinci are the highest seeded players in this section, but none of them are tearing it up lately at all, so there could be a surprise winner out of this quarter. Difficult to say who, but there are quite a few talented players here who, on a given week if they play their best tennis, could beat almost anyone in this quarter in my opinion like Hantuchova, Petrova, Halep, Pironkova, Watson, Rybarikova even Barthel if she decides to show up.

I´d love Petra Martic to go on a run this Wimbledon, (she will do that sooner or later I´m convinced, because she´s hugely talented and her game fits grass superbly) and she comes off a worthy win in Nottingham CH  which should give a boost to her confidence. Watch out for this girl, if she´s physically fit and she´s on her she has the potential even to come out as a winner off this draw

Third quarter

It would be very surprising to me if Sharapova doesn´t reach QF from the bottom half of this section, the question I´ve made myself is “Sharapova against who?”  The seeded players in top half of this quarter, Errani, Wozniacki, Stephens and Lepchenko are very vulnerable these days on these courts in my humble opinion. Vekic, Hampton (if she has something left in her tank after her busy week in Eastbourne) even Andrea Petkovic could surprise although she has had no grass preparation. I will take a deep look at outright betting offer to see if I can find anything worth the advice.

Fourth quarter

Kvitova could have a couple of very tough matches in Round 2 against Shvedova (hard to know in which form she will arrive here, and although she´s in much worse form than 1 year ago, in Wimbledon 2012 she was awesome, so you can´t completely write off her chances to suddenly come into life again and repeat a good run here) and Makarova. If she gets through those two matches one would think that none of her possible rivals in R4 would stop a confident Petra.

Azarenka looks like a deadcert to reach QF from the bottom half of this section, don´t even think Flipkens´ variety on grass would hurt her too much and the rest of the field are several classes below her

I would really love to get this one wrong and stranger things have happened, of course, but I think we could easily get a repeat of last Roland Garros WTA final between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova

Istomin to beat Seppi @2.97 (Pinnacle)  4/10

These two meet again this year and I have to back Istomin again. Should be a dog fight and I have to side with Denis at current odds

Brown to beat García-López @3.10 (Betfair) 4/10

Big Dustin Brown breezed through qualies, where he didn´t lose a single set and García-López is not a guy to trust at all. I have almost the same feeling here than in Istomin vs Seppi match

Donskoy to beat Isner @3.97 (Pinnacle) 3/10

This one will looks too obvious for everyone and I´m pretty sure everyone and their mothers will be on Donskoy but I won´t overthink this one because sometimes the smartest thing to do is to keep it simple. Dosnkoy beat Isner last week, not facing a single break point in three sets and not even John´s 18 aces were enough.

Reid to beat Stepanek @6.55 (Pinnacle) 2/10

Stepanek flopped in RG against Kyrgios and I´m going to go for the double here. Reid comes off an excellent fight through the qualifyng draw and Radek comes off an easy loss against Seppi and some talk about personal problems in media. Plus he´s not the accurate server he once was, he´s close to be 35 years old and I don´t think he deserves such a low odds in this spot.

Ebden +5.5 games against Nishikori  @2.04 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I wanted to take Ebden to win a set, but most bookies don´t have that offer up yet, so I will advice this other one, which is risker but I also consider it has decent value. Reasoning is that grass fits Matthew´s game superbly, match-up is also favoured on grass as he has a better serve than Kei and that should be more important on this surface as well, so I do think he will give Kei a good fight, bigger than most people think

Robson to beat Kirilenko @3.14 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Stubborn I am, yes. I firmly believe in Robson, when she matures and improves her footwork and movement I think that she will be one of the best female players in the world. Kirilenko is more vulnerable in grass than in the rest of the surfaces in my opinion so I can´t help but taking Laura at these odds

Pironkova to beat Pavlyuchenkova @1.85 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Nastya without any grass leadup matches into this one, while this is the time of the year where backing Pironkova means business. She played decent stuff against Suárez, she was a bit unlucky not to win that one

Watson to beat Keys @2.36 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Although she has great potential I think Madison Keys is generally overrated betting-wise. She´s still too inconsistent and has too many flaws in my opinion. Heather did play well in Eastbourne, she gave a good fight to champ Vesnina and I think she has way bigger chances than these odds to win this match.

Pliskova to beat Petrova @4.05 (Pinnacle) 4/10

When in your last 3 matches you´ve choked a match away serving for it against Carla Suárez, you´ve also blown a 4-2 lead in the 3rd set of a Grand Slam against a rookie like Mónica Puig and you´ve only won 5 games off Stosur on grass, then you have a problem: Yes, you got it: “Hello, I´m Nadia Petrova”. Karo Pliskova has a great serve and if she manages to hold her serves,  Petrova will likely gift one of her service games eventually

Moore to beat Kanepi @8.36 (Pinnacle) 2/10

I might be crazy but I think Kanepi could flop here. Didn´t like her last losses and we know her past with injuries, her body has let her down many times. Moore has had a good lead-up to Wimbledon, a couple of good wins with a couple of sharp losses against rivals who supposedly were going to eat her alive. Gut feeling says I have to try her small.

GL folks

- All odds are from Pinnacle, except Rybarikova´s (Coral) -

Haas (@23.11) or Berdych (@7.90) to win 1st quarter  2/10 (1/10 each bet)

Dolgopolov (@35.68) or the field (@65.01) to win 2nd quarter 2/10 (1/10 each)

Vinci (@16.95), Hantuchova (@27.55) or Rybarikova (@101) to win 2nd quarter 2/10 (1.25/10 on Vinci, 0.5/10 on Hantu, 0.25/10 on Rybarikova)

Apart from this I also took this prop for today´s matches in Men´s Draw, no need to write another post just for this, so I will advice it below:

Trixie (3 doubles & 1treble) of Benneteau to win 3-2 (@7) & Lu to win 3-2 (@7) & Tipsarevic to win 3-2 (@6.50)  2.5/10 (0.75/10 on each of the three doubles and 0.25/10 on the treble)

Basically the same reasoning for the three selections. I feel favs are priced too short, but I find bigger value on going with them in a very tough match rather than trusting their rivals, because Ward, Troicki and Kamke tend to get very nervous when match is decided in a few key points

That´s all for today, good luck and hope you all do well with your betting, folks

Wimbledon 2013 betting picks for second round in ATP:

Brown to beat Hewitt  @5 (Ladbrokes) 2.5/10 & Hewitt to win 3-2 @8.5 (William Hill) 1.5/10

Big Dustin is really on fire. He´s won 10 sets in a row, he´s serving from a tree and firing winners for fun. Match will be played on his terms and being this sharp, not even a supposedly bad match-up as Hewitt (excellent returner with great passing shots) will avoid to drop a set imo. I could play it safe on Brown +2.5 sets, but I will go the riskier way as I believe he has a really good shot at taking this one. I´m afraid of Hewitt´s fighting spirit and Brown´s usual mental collapse if match gets very tight, so I will also play Lleyton to win in 5.

Rufin to beat Almagro @6.01 (Pinnacle) 2.5/10 & Almagro to win 3-2 @8.5 (William Hill) 1.5/10

These two met last year here and Almagro won in 4. From what I´ve heard, Nico´s preparation for this one has been worse than last year, and even Zopp (who has been out injured for a long time) kept the scoreline tight, so I think Rufin could easily do better than last year. I will take the same approach that in Brown-Hewitt match

Janowicz to beat Stepanek @1.85 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I´m a firm believer in Jerzy´s potential and although Stepanek surprised me yesterday and disposed easily Reid, I still make Jerzy around a 60% favourite here

Ram to beat Mónaco @3.85 (Pinnacle) 3/10

I´m not the biggest fan of Rajeev Ram, but I´d make him way shorter to beat Mónaco. I don´t think the Argentinian will like the match-up as Rampras won´t give him any rhythm and if he serves well, he should have a great chance at progressing.

Robert +1.5 sets against Paire @2.50 (Unibet) 4/10

Paire left some doubts yesterday against Ungur and he will face a tougher match-up for him here imo. Robert´s shots are flatter than Ungur´s and that should make Benoit struggle on his forehand side and his movement towards his right side, which are the biggest flaws he has in my opinion to do well on grass, as I´ve already commented on it more in ATP Main Draw preview. According to Falla´s interviews, Robert did play very well on R1 and I believe he can push Paire big time. I will play this one safer because if match goes to the distance, age and matches from qualyfing could take a toll on Stephane´s physical condition.

Tsonga to win 3-2 @7 (Ladbrokes) 2/10 and Cilic to win 3-2 @10 (Ladbrokes) 1/10

A small attempt here, as I believe Gulbis can trouble Tsonga but I don´t like to go against Jo on grass this year. If he recovers his confidence, freshness and will to win, he has an excellent chance to go deep in the draw (I might even take him to win outright if he gives me a good impression after this match). Cilic´s match has that weird smell to me, either he routes De Scheeper in 3 or he will make life very hard for himself, that´s just a gut feeling, so I will throw some money on him winning in 5.

Wimbledon 2013 betting picks for 2nd round in WTA:

Cetkovska to beat Wozniacki @3.40 (Bet365) 4/10

Simple approach. Petra gave a masterclass yesterday against Vekic. If she can pick it up from where he left it, she stands a beautiful chance at sending Caroline back to Denmark. I know it´s not always the case this will happen again but I won´t mind taking the risk at these odds.

Lucic to beat Suárez @2.32 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Carla won´t enjoy this match-up. Lucic serves big, and when you give her a ball to attack she just hits the crap out of it.. Carla will give her chances to rip returns because her serve is weak and will struggle to defend from Lucic´s shots as ball will skid a lot more than she fancies to. There´s always the chance that Mirjana misses more than what should be ideal, but I do think if she´s sharp, she is a favourite to win this one as her game suits much better to the surface and her rival needs a lot of more rhythm than what she will get tomorrow.

Many people are asking me about Azarenka vs Pennetta´s match. I won´t take any position today, first because Azarenka has tweeted that she had received positive news concerning the “injury” and second and a much bigger reason is that because I´ve learnt during these years that Azarenka´s camp normally gives us punters some hints when something is wrong with her (against Goerges Stuttgart ´11, Peng in Madrid ´10, etc), it looks like someone leaks the info and money starts piling against her. So my advice is to monitor that market closely and if this happens, then it should be a good idea to take the Italian, I will write another post  in the site if this happens

Good luck all, folks

YTD: 38-61-2 +53.83 units
Staked: 300.5; Returned: 354.33; ROI: 17.91%

Three betting picks for today Thrusday 27th June:

Blake to beat Tomic @2.75 (Ladbrokes) 5/10

Tomic pulled out of his doubles match with Troicki last evening, it doesn´t bode too well for his chances to progress further, so I think in these conditions I have to try Blake

Sijsling to beat Raonic @3.18 (Pinnacle) 3/10

Since he split with Galo Blanco, Milos has not performed in the way a guy of his ranking should. Sijsling serves&volleys shouldn´t be an easy match-up for the Canadian and I expect a tough battle here. If match gets decided in a couple of tie breaks, I don´t trust on Milos´ strokes when pressured on this surface at all

Mathieu to beat López @5 (Betfair) 2/10

Ok, López should be fav because of his good form and because of his nasty serve on grass, but @5 odds for PHM look crazy to me. These two have always had tough battles between them plus if match goes to the distance López could struggle after playing 11 matches in last 17 days.

GL folks

Shitpova

YTD: 39-63-2 +53.37 units
Staked: 310.5; Returned: 363.87; ROI: 17.19%

Back later or tomorrow morning with 3rd round plays, gl folks