Wimbledon 2013

I'm on the same, bol roulette

Sorry bro 

Poor guy died of a heart attack.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aziz_Shavershian

If this guy truly believed in Bartoli he'd take her SU and risk a significant sum of cash. If he truly believed it would go 3 sets, he'd back the Over and stick a far more significant sum on it (once it goes to a 3rd with the Over, you dont have to care who wins - taking 2-1 to a specific player, you still have to care who wins). But if you hadn't noticed, BNR loathes betting minus odds. That means him taking Lisicki or the Over here was never going to happen. If Lisicki was the dog however, he'd come up with an excuse to back her in some way. As it stands, he backed Kanepi against Lisicki, he backed Radwanska against Lisicki. He's a slow learner when it comes to this chick. As nice as BNR's positive ROI is, it'd be that much nicer if he ceased backing against Lisicki after she proved her cred. by beating Serena.

Thanks n3, gl bud.

Thanks Gavinnick, you could be right, I´m not saying Lisicki is not a deserved favourite, I just like to fade her on a possible high pressure spot because I´ve just seen her many times crumbling and folding like a cheap tent because of her poor nerves handling. If she comes out and blows Bartoli off court or if she comes out on top in a very close match, I´ll tip my hat off at her. GL

Thanks HOH and name the game, GL to you.

Thanks KiwiSportsFan. I always try to advise taking odds which I believe they´re wrong, of course I make a lot of mistakes and Kanepi over Lisicki was one of them (I wrote that I got it wrong totally after the match).

On the other hand, I´m perfectly fine with that Radwanska 2-1 over Lisicki bet&reasoning, despite being a lost bet, everyone who saw the match saw how Lisicki´s nerves made her receiving a 9-1 partial score in games from leading 6-4 *1-0 to trailing 0-3 in the third. It didn´t cash because she regrouped and was good enough to comeback to win, but it was a good read and a good bet (it´s all about value, if you have taken @5+ odds and they´re down to @1.25 odds in play, you can safely say you´ve done a pretty good job).

My style is not about finding excuses to bet on high odds and this Bartoli´s tip is not due to being a slow learner at all concerning Lisicki, as I know her strengths and weaknesses pretty well for a long time, that´s why I do think that Bartoli´s odds for a 2-1 win are wrong. If this comes into a decider, I don´t think Lisicki would be a favourite anymore. GL to you as well

Lisicki's nerves did well against Serena when she was in a hole against her.  Also did well in the Third Set vs. Radwanska.

Of course, Bartoli is the more experienced one and she should be calmer in the match.

Will be an exciting Final, no doubt.

 

Bad capping today, 0-3 -9 units.

Lisicki showed her true nervous face and couldn´t hit a ball in court until she saw herself match points down at 6-1 5-1. Barty/Dellacqua missed their chance on those set points in first set and after that, Peng/Hsieh were much better. And Bryans only lost first set, they were untouchable after a poor start.


YTD: 46-78-2  +60.41 units
Staked: 404; Returned: 464.41; ROI: 14.95%


I will try to look for a good prop for tomorrow´s final, back tomorrow in the morning. GL all

Bartoli 2-0   +400 

I won´t advise any bet for the final, I think it´s a better option to trade the match, but I will share my views on it:

 

I still think Murray is the better player on grass. He feels more comfortable with the skid and the lower bounce of the ball, and he´s much more relaxed than Djokovic when he has to bend his knees to hit the ball (this is the biggest difference and his biggest advantage over Nole on grass, watch both of them today when they have to bend their knees on slices, low balls and you will notice how Murray´s body is not tense at all and Murray´s feet are always ready to move again quickly after hitting a shot with his knees bent and Nole is normally more tense when being closer to the floor and he spends a couple of tenths of second more to get his feet ready to move again). Murray also has those extra mph in his serve which can be crucial in a match between two players with such an increible return games. As I´ve written here many times, I still believe grass is Djokovic´s worst surface by far.

Why not taking Andy at @2.5 odds? Simple, because Djokovic has played much better than him throughout the tournament. He´s serving very well, hitting his forehand well, and although his backhand didn´t work as usual against JMDP it´s such an amazing shot and he has such a huge confident on it, I´m pretty sure it will work well today again.

Murray has looked awful against Verdasco, so so against Janowicz (could have easily being down 2-1 sets again) and he has looked pretty nervous at times: Very weak 2nd serves, too tense when hitting his forehand, feeding his rivals off short balls to attack, etc- Crowd will surely help him today, but I also expect things like these to happen, and Djokovic won´t forgive if Murray goes through a patch of hitting junk like this.

I´ve also taken a look at the different props offered and although I´ve taken a few small bets, I won´t advice any, limits are low, odds are gone easily and it makes no much sense to me. Anyway, these are the stats of their only match on grass up to date (Olympics ´12), maybe they will help someone to clear their ideas:

                                               MURRAY        DJOKOVIC

1st Serve %	64%	62%
2nd Serve %	100%	96%
Aces	5	3
Double Faults	0	1
Unforced Errors	16	13
Break Points Convertions	2/4 (50%)	0/4 (0%)
Winning % on 1st Serve	43/56 (77%)	29/40 (73%)
Winning % on 2nd Serve	16/31 (52%)	14/25 (56%)
Total Winners	25	25
Forehand Winners	11	10
Backhand Winners	1	4
Net Points Won/Played	14/18 (78%)	19/26 (73%)
Total Points Won	81	71
Serve Maximum Speed	215 Km/h	202 Km/h

That´s all, hope we can enjoy this final and good luck all!

BnR

BetNoRoulette - I quoted your finals thoughts on another site (with full attributation, of course), hope you don't mind. Always read your offerings.

Sure, no problem at all BetCrimes. GL today

good luck 

Glad Andy Murray won Wimbledon, starting to fulfilling his huge potential and talent, well done.

I had a decent Wimbledon, up around 24 units to end up with +60 YTD. I definetely should have done better, but I will take it and will try to improve for North American HC season. I will be back here at Covers for Montreal, Cinci and US Open, have a good summer and good luck all with your betting.


PD: During this month of July I will still post on my blog (surely with less regularity, I will post again almost daily in August) and will check my twitter almost every day for any betting related discussion or question.