Wimbledon 2013

Good call on Sijsling

Thanks sparty, gl bud.

YTD: 39-63-2 +53.37 units
Staked: 310.5; Returned: 363.87; ROI: 17.19%

Four betting tips for ATP Wimbledon today Friday 28th. Weather forecast looks dire but at least Janowicz´s match will be played because it´s scheduled in CC:

Janowicz to beat Almagro @1.80 (Pinnacle) 5/10

A guy I trust and I believe he will still develop a lot as a player against another one whose game doesn´t translate as well on grass as in other surfaces. Match will be played under a roof and I think indoor conditions should favour Jerzy´s booming serves and flat shots. I think he has more than 60% chances to win this one.

Robredo +2.5 sets against Murray @3.33 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Robredo is very happy with both of his performances so far in SW19. So he´s in good form and he has always felt more comfortable on grass than most people think. Despite surely playing under a roof, which should help Murray, I believe he´s still priced too high to nick a set. I´m convinced that he will have more chances than odds suggest to win that set, either because he´s very sharp or because he´s an old fox who will take advantage of any lapse of concentration Andy might have.

De Schepper to beat Mónaco @3.5 (Bet365) 4/10

Stubborn I am. Mónaco has no business playing on a second week in Wimbledon. KDS has a booming lefty serve and an attacking game, some might think he hasn´t got enough ground game and I can understand their logic, but price is too tempting, it´s good enough for me to try my luck.

Struff to beat Chardy @3 (Betfair)  3/10

Looks like Struff got into this match after a bad first set, and turned it around until he was in charge leading 2-1 in the 3rd set, Chardy serving. Chardy is not the most reliable player to trust on, also serving behind in that 3rd set is a thing he won´t fancy, I can easily see him getting tight and betting broken if Struff leads 5-4 or 6-5. Small bet here.

GL folks

I´ve just found a very interesting prop in William Hill which I recommend taking, it has big value in my opinion:

 

Janowicz vs Almagro total tie-breaks in the match: 2 or more @4 (William Hill) 4/10

Both are big servers and with the roof closed because of the rainy weather it should be even harder to break themselves. Ladbrokes has 1.33 for at least 1 tie-break happening and I see those odds quite accurate, @4 for 2 or more are way off. WH oddsmaker has got it all wrong here imo.

That´s all, good luck folks

Bad day, went 1-3 with 7 units lost, thought Robredo could do more and a bit of little more luck was needed in that Almagro´s third set or with Struff´s tie-breakers. I will update YTD after 3rd round is completed:

Five betting tips for Wimbledon third round today, Saturday 29th:

 

Tomic to beat Gasquet @3.32 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I feel Tomic is due for a win against Richard and the best place to get it is here at Wimbledon. I saw the first match between both in Bangkok ´12 and Tomic was the better player in that first set imo, don´t think the match-up is particularly favourable to Gasquet at all. Grass is Tomic´s best surface and looks like that niggle in his doubles match was nothing serious as he was impressive against Blake according to media reports

Dolgopolov to beat Ferrer @3.87 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Dolgo can lose in three or win this one. Ferrer´s confidence is not good at all at the moment so I can´t resist fading him here against a very dangerous player like The Dog (if he feels like playing tomorrow)

Erakovic to beat Robson @2.72 (Pinnacle) 4/10

I love Robson´s tennis as you already know, but I feel Marina is playing very well also and match-up favours Erakovic imo. Why? Because Robson´s main weakness is her movement and defending, specially on the forehand side. Erakovic has a very powerful drive and her inside-out forehand should make suffer Laura a lot. Robson should also struggle against Erakovic´s big serve because she likes to return the ball a bit too early for my taste considering her technique, specially on her forehand. All in all, I gotta back the woman who I feel should be more comfortable in this intriguing match-up here.

Date-Krumm +9 games against Williams @1.91 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Serena will win Wimbledon but +9 games against such a fighter as Kimiko…. I can´t resist taking it. The only way to win points against such a sharp version of SW is striking first. Kimiko´s attacking style, aggressive returns and flat shots are a good way to earn those games against this Serena.

Martic to beat Pironkova @3.25 (Betfair) 4/10

I know Petra is not the favourite here because after watching her match against Karo Pliskova, despite winning and although she showed she´s in the good direction, I noticed that she´s still far from her best form. But the thing is that I felt that she only needed matches to reach it, just lacks of the confidence of winning week in, week out and being healthy again. She moved well, hit the ball well and looked agile, which are fantastic news. She´s such a natural talent that if she gets that confidence she can beat almost anyone left in the draw except SW.

That´s all, Gl folks

Really like the Dolgo play as he has played Ferrer close in the past and the surface favors him.  Definitely worth a shot at +300.

Thanks Theone. I think Erakovic vs Robson was a good call, just unlucky not to cash in the end. GL bud.

Third round recap: 3W-7L  -3.72 units
Staked: 40
Returned: 36.28


Despite losing I´m happy overall with 3rd round´s punting. Outcome was way too harsh given how the matches went imo, but if I keep up with this capping, I have no doubt luck will eventually even out things in the long run.


YTD: 42-70-2  +49.65
Staked: 350.5; Returned: 400.15; ROI: 14.16%


Back tomorrow with more tips for Monday, GL folks

YTD: 42-70-2  +49.65
Staked: 350.5; Returned: 400.15; ROI: 14.16%

Just one betting pick in ATP draw for Monday 1st July, Ladbrokes are way too high imo with these two offers, so I advice taking this parlay:

Youzhny & Haas to win at least one set against Murray & Djokovic @7.11 (Ladbrokes) 4/10

Simple, this price is too much, I expected Youzhny´s odds to win a set being around @2.5 and Haas +2.5 sets odds around evens after Djokovic´s masterclass against Chardy. Therefore my fair odds for this parlay were around the @5 mark, gotta try to punish Lads on their offer here.

GL folks

Three betting tips grouped in a trixie for today Monday 1st July in WTA Draw:

Trixie: Flipkens to win 2-1 @4/Radwanska to win 2-1 @4.20/Stephens to win 2-1 @4.20 (William Hill)   5/10 (1.5/10 each double, 0.5/10 for the treble)

Same reasoning behind all these three matches, that´s why I´ve decided to make a trixie bet with them: I think Flipkens, Radwanska and Stephens are too short coming into their matches, but I do feel taking them to win in three sets has a bigger value than taking the three underdogs.

That´s all, GL folks

Great day overall, despite Youzhny couldn´t close that 2nd set out, it was a pity, -4 units in the ATP 4th round bet.

Radwanska and Stephens won in three sets so we hit their double (1.5 units * 4.2 * 4.2 = 26.46 units returned there, for a total of 21.46 units of net profit in that bet). Pennetta served for the first set twice, it could have been a sick jackpot had she won that set, because Flipkens still could have had a very realistic shot at coming back, but I´ll take it!



Fourth round recap: 1W-1L +17.46 units

Staked: 9
Returned: 26.46


And YTD record:

YTD: 43-71-2  +67.11 units
Staked: 359.5; Returned: 426.61; ROI: 18.66%


Back tonight with more plays for quarterfinals. GL folks

YTD: 43-71-2  +67.11 units
Staked: 359.5; Returned: 426.61; ROI: 18.66%

Just one betting pick for today´s quarterfinals, I also think Kvitova might be too short against Flipkens, but I decided to pass that one up, she ended up playing better against Suárez today and Petra´s pedigree on grass might prove too strong in the end. Maybe Kvitova winning 2-1 if you can get odds higher than @4 could be a good bet there.

Kanepi to beat Lisicki @3.58 (Pinnacle) 4/10

Must bet for me. These odds for Lisicki are a huge overreaction to her win against Serena Williams. Both are very similar players quality-wise. Kanepi is not ranked higher because she has spent injured almost one year, missing Wimbledon and US Open in 2012 and Australian Open this year among other tournaments. But she´s back playing well again, her game is also very powerful and effective on grass and we also have to consider Lisicki is in a dangerous letdown spot after her draining emotionally win over Serena. Plus, she´s never been the most reliable girl around in tour and at these odds, in this spot, she´s a no-brainer fade material in my opinion.

That´s all, GL folks

Kanepi was no rival for Lisicki, got it all wrong there, -4 units. I will update YTD record after tomorrow´s ATP QF´s

A few betting advices for today´s ATP Wimbledon Quarterfinals:

 

Berdych +2.5 sets against Djokovic @1.85 (Betfair) 7/10

I wrote in previous posts ATP Wimbledon Main Draw preview and in Wimbledon outright betting tips that I thought Berdych was going to give Djokovic a huge headache should they meet in QF and I still think the same. It´s true Djokovic is playing well, but so is Tomas, he shrugged off a huge challenge from Tomic in last round and hit an amazing ball from most of the time. That should be more than enough to nick at least one set against Nole. And I wouldn´t be surprised if he can push him to 5 sets or even pull the upset.

Kubot to beat Janowicz @4.88 (Pinnacle) 3/10

Huge chance for both players here, and although I´m a big fan on Janowicz´s potential I do think he´s priced way too short here, I expect a very tough battle. JJ had some hiccups against Melzer that could have cost him big time. Kubot is playing very well and he´s a very dangerous rival with his aggressive style both on serve and when returning.

And finally one last tip split in three, I have the sneaky feeling one out of these three will go to five sets, so I will take the gamble. I´ve already explained how I see Djokovic-Berdych and Kubot vs Janowicz matches and in my opinion, Verdasco will either fold easily playing a bad match or will turn up to make Andy´s life way more difficult than people might have thought:

Murray to win 3-2 @11 (Betfair), Djokovic to win 3-2 @9 (Betfair) and Janowicz to win 3-2 @7.6 (Betfair) (Murray& Djokovic 1/10 bet each, and JJ 1.5/10 bet for a total bet of 3.5/10)

That´s all, GL folks

Like that Kubot play a lot.  GL 

Joker in 4, maybe 5. Berdshit cannot beat him twice in a row. Revenge factor is huge in Joker's head.

Thanks Theone, GL with that play.

Thanks Kamista, you could be right, let´s see. I still think grass is Nole´s worst surface (or less good surface would be more accurate) and where Berdych´s shots can be more effective against his defence. Concerning Kubot, well, in fact this shouldn´t have been his first time in Wimbledon´s QF, he had two matchpoints against López two years ago to reach that stage, if my memory works correctly. When he´s in good form, he´s a handful for most of the guys on tour. GL to you as well

@Asomugha Please cut that hair. GL

Berdych choked away his chances to win one of tho first sets, Jerzy was too clutch in that set point against in first set and breaking in the next game. After that he got a big mental advantage for the rest of the match and got a deserved win. Murray saved a bit the day with that 3-2 win against a good Verdasco. I´ve also updated outrights recap after Berdych has gone out:


QF recap: 1-3 -6.5 units

Staked: 17.5 units
Returned: 11 units

Outrights recap: 0-3 -6 units
Staked: 6 units
Returned: 0 units

YTD: 44-77-2  +54.61 units
Staked: 383; Returned: 437.61; ROI: 14.25%

GL folks

YTD: 44-77-2  +54.61 units
Staked: 383; Returned: 437.61; ROI: 14.25%

Two betting picks for today´s WTA Wimbledon Semifinals, grouped in one, because the reasoning is very similar:

Radwanska to beat Lisicki 2-1 @5.16 (Pinnacle) & Bartoli to beat Flipkens 2-1 @4.2 (Sportingbet) (2/10 each for a total of a 4/10 bet)

I believe experience will play an important role here. I think both matches should be quite levelled and it´s likely that will translate into three-set matches. If so, I´d rather go with the experienced player, both Radwanska and Bartoli have been in Wimbledon finals and Lisicki´s nerves and Flipkens lack of experience in the big stage could prove a hurdle too big to overcome.

That´s all, GL folks

Bet lost, -4, close with Radwanska, but no cigar.


YTD: 44-78-2  +50.61 units
Staked: 387; Returned: 437.61; ROI: 13.07%

Back tomorrow morning for ATP semis, GL all

YTD: 44-78-2  +50.61 units
Staked: 387; Returned: 437.61; ROI: 13.07%

We have two great matches in Wimbledon semis on Djokovic vs Del Potro and Murray vs Janowicz today, and I feel both could get very interesting:

It´s true Janowicz beat Murray in Paris last year, but it´s also fair to say Murray had that match under control until he messed it up serving for it. He was leading 7-5 5-4 and *30-0, he even had a matchpoint on serve at 40-30, only to miss a couple of forehands, a backhand wide an JJ broke back. After losing the 2nd set, Murray checked out mentally. Anyway Janowicz is a more dangerous player now and he´s much more confident on his own abilities these days, so he should pose a nice challenge anyway. I think Murray will come through, but shouldn´t be easy at all. I expect him to raise his game a lot from last match against Verdasco (he would be in huge trouble if he didn´t) but even with that Janowicz is good enough to take a set or even two.

Concerning Del Potro vs Djokovic I feel it will be also closer than odds suggest. Del Potro played great against Ferrer, much more aggressive than usual and I do feel he plays his best when he does this and he is not so passive as he tends to be many times. He will need to play like this to push Djokovic: serve big, pound his forehand and use the backhand down the line. I also think Djokovic will prevail in the end, because if this goes to 5 sets I´m not sure how good Del Potro´s movement will be with that dodgy knee, so I´ve decided to take two small bets grouped in one, both favs to win in 5 sets:

A 4/10 bet on Murray 3-2 @7.5 (William Hill) and Djokovic 3-2 @8 (Paddy) (2/10 each bet)

I might post a play on doubles W SF, but I will wait to see if odds drift a bit more, GL all

I finally took this one:

Barty/Dellacqua to beat Groenefeld/Peschke @2.70 (Betfair) 4/10

Odds drifted enough to try this one, in my opinion. I was impressed with Dellacqua and Barty in Australian Open this year and they have backed up that great performance with a title in Birmingham and a SF here, knocking out very classy couples like Hradecka/Hlavackova or Kops/Sears. I do believe they will win soon a Grand Slam, and they have a big chance here. Ashley is a fantastic young player, full of potential, and Casey was happy with her form despite being defeated in last qualies round by Witthoeft. Both have decent serves and good returns to make their rivals struggle. Groenefeld/Peschke are of course a great couple and have also defeated very good pairings but odds are way too influenced by this and maybe the seedings as well. For me, Barty/Dellacqua are not a worse couple than Groenefeld/Peschke.

That´s all, GL folks

Great day yesterday hitting the doubles play and Nole 3-2 win.

2-0 +18.8 units

YTD: 46-78-2  +69.41 units
Staked: 395; Returned: 464.41; ROI: 17.57%


On today:

Bartoli to beat Lisicki 2-1 @6.23 (Pinnacle) 3/10

Exactly the same reasoning that in the semifinals against Radwanska. I don´t trust Lisicki´s nerves, against Agnieszka she went bananas after she lost the break at 6-4 *1-0 and it almost cost her the match. You could see in her face and her body language how nervous she was, she didn´t take enough time to regroup after losing a point, and she started missing shot after shot. Only when she was down 3-0 in the decider, she calmed down and started to play better again. She´s the favourite because she has the advantage of having a better serve, more power and having a better reach when stretched, but Bartoli is more consistent, will punish Sabine when missing first serves and she won´t ever give up fighting. So I believe that if Marion can push Lisicki to her limit (taking her to a 3rd set), Sabine´s nerves could easily make her crumble.

Barty/Dellacqua to beat Hsieh/Peng @2.50 (William Hill) 3/10

You could read again my Barty/Dellacqua to beat Groenefeld/Peschke tip and that would do. I simply have this one very close to a 50/50 shot

Dodig/Melo to beat Bryans @5.50 (Pinnacle) or Bryans to win 3-2 @10 (Bet365) (2/10 on Dodig/Melo and 1/10 bet on Bryans 3-2)

Dodig is playing out of his mind and serving very well, this Melo-Dodig team is improving a lot and I think they will give the mighty Bryans´ a run for the title. Bet 365´s offer of @10 odds for a 3-2 set win for the Twins looks too generous to pass up as well, so I split the bet in two parts.


That´s all, GL folks

@5.5 odds for Dodig/Mello are Bet365 odds, sorry, my bad.