Shocking that Rybakina is such a small favorite vs Osaka

I’d expect the line to be at least -180 vs Osaka. Even though this is their first ever meeting, I know Elena hasn’t been playing that well this tournament but she’s wayyyy better than Naomi at this stage in their career. What am I missing?

I think it’s exactly what you said looks like they’re basing it on what’s happening in this tournament. Osaka has only been broken twice while I believe Rybakina has been broken 11 times, so she’s certainly had a tougher of time up until this point. But agree Rybakina is the better player. 

Naomi has been in excellent form lately.  I've watched most of her matches the last couple months and she is looking very sharp.  Of course, Rybakina is still in the fight to be world #1 this year but has been a little shaky this tourney.  I actually lean Osaka to win, but I think the best play in this match is the over in games or over in total aces. 

Comes down to the better player or the player who's playing better. Rybakina absolutely the better player. But if the same two players show up tonight that have shown up all week so far then Elena would be in real trouble. Osaka's matches have looked about as clean as they could look so far. Not so for Rybakina but what you can say is she's still here and maybe that's all that matters.

Elena on the year is hitting about 58% of first serves in and winning about 51% of second serve points. But in 3 out of her last 4 matches her 1stIn has dropped below 50% and her 2nd has dropped below 45%. Those aren't sustainable numbers for her at all. But she's still here. 

Should be able to determine which Elena has shown up within her first few service games. In both of her duds this week she has struggled to find her first serve right from the rip. If she has it I'm probably taking her live.

I will say that the odds are definitely a little strange here. Without considering form I think it would be well over -200. And at this level recent form isn't typically weighted as much as it seems to be here.

@bringit

I'm locked and loaded. If you post hammer her live I’m in! 

Osaka the play or Rybakina?  So If your saying rybakina holds the first 2 service games your live betting her?

exactly what I was thinking. On a day Elena would be a big favorite over Osaka. Strange this line is almost pickem 

agree. If you plan to take her live let us know. Might not watch the match so gonna miss out

I'm just now tuning in myself but obviously she's been broken already. But even if she had held and held the first 3 or 4 games that's not what I would've been looking for. What I'm looking for is if she can get her first serve in play consistently. 

Even if she's behind if she can keep her percentages up as we go deeper into the set she may be worth a look still.

Just curious, did anybody play Merida?

@bringit

No every dog has been getting shelled in Montreal 

Rybakina Set 2 (-120)

I cashed out for even money on Osaka to win. Elena looks too strong. Now got broken  as I type this