Round 3 plays

I will keep my plays in this thread, makes it easy.  What started out great for me has turned sour very quickly.  Yesterday was brutal but Sinner dropping a set to a nobody took the cake. 

Anyways, I am liking:

Frech +1.5 sets +147 (1 unit)

Fech ML +459 (0.25 units)

Fading Mirra, she barely beat Uchijima in round 2, unless she improves I cannot see her winning in straights.  Also think Frech has an outside chance of winning

Fernandez +1.5 sets +164 (1 unit)

Coco not that great imo I think she is way overhyped all the talk about being the next big star of women's tennis after Serena, she keeps making unforced errors she could have easily lost the 2nd set to Burrage if it wasn't for Burrage to make even more unenforced errors than Coco.  I know the history between these two has Coco winning in straights but from what I am seeing if Coco continues to make mistakes, Layla will take a set here.

Baena +2.5 sets (-130)

I don't see Paul winning in straights here, Baena is more than capable of taking a set, in fact I wouldn't be shocked if this goes the distance of 5 sets

Machac +2.5 -208 (2 units)

I really hate laying anything over -200 but I think this is warranted.  Novak has not looked sharp this tournament, he dropped a set in both his matches already against Basavareddy in Round 1 and Faria in Round 2.  Machac is a step up in class than those two and Machac held his own and won against a tough Opelka in Round 2.  Only question mark is fatigue after such a long match last round but I think the way Joker is playing I can't see how Machac won't at least win a set

Parlay

Sabalenka ML with Zvrev -1.5 with Alcaraz -2.5 -110 (1 unit)

Been hit and miss with my parlays lately but going to try this one.  Can't see Sabalenka losing this although Tauson has played well so far and she could take a set from Saba but can't see her winning, I think Saba is going all the way to the finals .  Alcaraz has been winning without breaking a sweat apart from the 2nd set agaisnt Shevchenko in Round 1.  Can't see him not winning in straights.  I also think Zvrev wins in straights but playing it safe by taking -1.5 as Fearnly has been playing good Tennis taking out Kyrgios in 3.  I can see him taking a set from Zvrev but not 2.

@icemantbi

 I dont know about Sabalenka to the finals. This tournament has a lot of heavy hitters getting pushed to their limits and Sabalenka hasnt been yet. Navarro has been tested twice and prevailed. Madison Keys had a battle last night and prevailed. Jasmine paolini and Iga Swiatek look like top form. Danielle Collins even battled last night and prevailed. Jessica Pegula cant count out either. Many of these girls showing they ready for the later rounds. I think Sabalenka is due to be tested soon. 

Greast views about tournament thats what I like. Im shocked that somebody appreciated Frech 

I like your analysing the plays great job - don’t know if I agree with the Sabalenka part - maybe I am coloured being Danish myself but I think the market has made the match versus Tauson way to 1-sided she is around +800 for the win ? I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Tauson won this (I would have priced it around +500)

@Calde13

 I think Tauson can give her a good run which is why I took the ML instead of set handicap.  I think Tauson is capable of stealing a set but at the end of the day Sabalanka is much stronger.  Of course anything can happen but I just don't see it here

 I also think she will win more often than not versus Tauson but gambling isn’t about winning or losing - it is about getting paid more than the chance would suggest (of course fair enough if you think she would win 7 out of 8 times - that is just a judgement call)

Yep Tauson already broke Saba twice a good start that's for sure.  Hope Saba gets it going 

Never a worry when it comes to Saba. Atleast until the QF or Semis when the going gets real tough

What a rough night, 1-5 yikes!

This is harder than I thought after all. 

@icemantbi

question for you brother as someone who doesnt wager tennis too often - instead of betting Frech +1.5 sets at +147, wouldn't the better play be taking the total sets Over 2.5? I grabbed that at +175 but saw it even higher before the match. 

thanks and BOL on your plays today 

@WILLY_THA_LURCH

 Yeah that makes sense didn't really notice that will keep that in mind next time