I looked at the line for Goerges vs Wozniacki and my eyes almost popped out of my head. +475!!! Here I thought they would make the line a sharp and tricky one in the +190-250 range but they went the other route bigtime… and as surprising as it is to me it is to my benefit as I very strongly believe Julia will challenge the world number one tomorrow.
I will just list my reasons and if you agree with even half of them I think you would be a fool not to pull the trigger, because it would only take a few of the following factors coming into play to make Julia the right side of the value at this number. And if most of the listed factors come into play, then this dog wins.
- Caroline does not defend as well on this type of clay as she does on hardcourts and Julia will not have to grind out rallies as much as most will think. Watch Caroline’s match vs Radwanksa for all the proof you need. Look at the amazing consistency with which Radwankska pierced the Wozniacki defense with her forehands down the line to the Wozniacki backhand corner. Julia’s coach was right there watching the match and surely noted the weakness. He would be IMO a damned fool if he did not, and for all I know he might well be given how much Goerges has underachieved thus far, but surely any halfway competent coach noted that and that means Julia should come into the match tomorrow aware of a very glaring weakness in the Wozniacki defense on this surface. And, as if it even needed to be stated, the type of forehand Julia can hit down the line dwarfs what Radwanska did her damage with. Watch the game film of Radwanska vs Wozniacki and tell me you do not see the pattern.
- This surface masks Julia’s two main weaknesses:
- Her defense. Her defense can be suspect at times, though overall I would rate it average. However vs the elite that makes it a weakness. But on this surface she is really getting to a ton of balls compared to normal. The balls sits up and she can get her feet under her and move to it. She does not have sudden explosive movement but once she gets her feet under her she moves well for her size. So clay hides the lack of a quick first step and lets it sit up in her strike range for very effective defensive, “protection” shots to stay in rallies. And of course great passing shots if her opponent is at the net and the volley is anything less than perfect.
Just look at her D vs Stosur. Stosur his 27 winners/24 errors, which is a great ratio for clay, but most of those errors Julia caused by staying in the rally longer than expected with good defense. It was plain on many points that Stosur could not hit through her consistently. If Julia can D up Stosur she can defend Wozniacki as well. The reason Stosur has cashed two dog tickets in a row vs Woz is due to having much better offense. No way can anyone convince me Wozniacki will bring more offensively tomorrow than what Sam brought today. Not a chance in hell of that happening.
- Her backswing. Julia has an absolutely massive backswing on the forehand side and this makes a much bigger difference than you make think in how a match plays out. She has this candycane backswing with a huge takeback and if you hit quickly enough to that side you can break it down and that is when she starts becoming an error machine. This is how Mattek Sands dominated her last year and why hardcourts will never be her best surface regardless of what people say to the contrary. There is a reason her one title so far came on the clay. But people think of her as a hardcourter… You cannot rush her forehand on clay and thus you cannot turn her main weapon into a weakness like you can on a hardcourt. This factor is huge.