I wanted to start a thread on this match where only Tennis is discussed and not name calling. Both sides opinions appreciated and received welcomely. Let's give people information to help them back their picks, so that let them bet who they like.
It's no secret I am big on Nadal and I have bet BIG on the -160. I can't resist it. Just too much value for me. I live in the UK and I see the hysteria and hype that surrounds Murray every year when Wimbledon comes round. It was the same with Tim Henman. The difference is Henman never had the ability Andy Murray has. He outperformed himself at Wimbledon year after year, but he was never good enough to win it.
Grass is probably Murray's second favourite surface, after hard courts. He can play on grass as winning in Queens and making solid improvment year after year in Wimbledon has shown. Still, I have always felt and felt strongly that Andy Murray will never win Wimbledon. The reason's being.
1) It's clear Flushing meadows is his favourite to play and it's abundantly clear he hates the hype and hysteria he has to deal with every year at Wimbledon. He always looks uncomfortable and by the look of his body language he feels the weight of the world is on his shoulders when he plays at Wimbledon. Rafa on the other hand you know will absolutely relish the atmosphere and indeed thrive on it. Home court advantage in my opinion is a hinderance here to Murray.
2) I don't think his games suits grass. When Murray gets put under pressure, he tends to do his best to get the ball back in play and hopes for his opponent to make a mistake instead of being aggressive and going for his shots, which is what you need to do to win on grass. Tsonga had chances to bury Murray in the second set but missed crucial shots when Murray was beginning to show real weakness. Rafa won't be so generous you can be sure of that. Also, when Murray is under big pressure his first serve goes to pieces. I think he is serving 50% on the year so far (maybe Tennis Capper can correct me). These service problems are not going away and Rafa will murder that second serve. Rafa is serving in or around 70% and while he doesn't have the biggest server in the world, it is effective and gets the job done.
3) These games down to the big points and self belief. When they both played each other in Wimbledon last time out Nadal CRUSHED Murray. Nadal has been clutch for years in Wimbledon and Paris. Murray has been found wanting when put under pressure when playing at Wimbledon. Yesterday Tsonga was a set up and 5-4 in the tie break. Nadal does not let Murray off the hook there. I don't think we will see a massacre here. As people have pointed out Murray is a good player. Big first serve, very intelligent and the best return of service in the game. I think we will see 3 hard well fought sets and I expect Rafa to come out 2-1 in front and roll from there ala Soderling. Yes Murray has beaten Nadal at grand slams, but one of those victories was against a player who was not anywhere near his best. I would always fancy Murray over Nadal in Flushing meadows, providing it wasn't the final and even though I wouldn't play much. Nadal has beaten Murray on the court they are playing on tomorrow and both players know it. Self Belief is a key advantage here for Nadal.
The problem when you play someone like Nadal when he is on form, is that you have to win 3 sets. You know the guys determination and will to win is legendary. Guys like Fried shrimp thinks the mental side of the game is not important. When you have 2 evenly matched players, then it's what makes all the difference. Rafa has won Wimbledon and been to 3 finals. You can't buy that kind of experience. Murray has failed his biggest tests (the matches with the most pressure) so far (2 grand slam finals and Wimbledon semi last year). Until Murray proves himself, like Soderling had to do, then it's best to fade him in these kind of matches and situations. The pressure is all on him. Expectant crowd, the fact he is now 23 and still has no grand slam. Players like Djock and DelPetro have made the break through. Murray still has not. The longer he goes without a slam the more the pressure will build when he gets to these situations..
4) Murray's coach Miles Maclagan. What has he done to get such a high profile job as Murray's Tennis coach? Maybe I am clutching at straws here but he just doesn't convince me as Murray's tactical coach. Uncle Tony, you may the same, but he must do something right as Nadal's record in Grand slams that are not hard courts is quite frankly phenomenal.
5) I know its different surfaces but winning is winning. Rafa has lost one match in 3 months. Murray has been off key since the Australian open. Winning is a habit, and a good habbit to have. I like the world's number one player on a great run against a player before this tournament that was clearly struggling with his confidence. Murray has not really been tested yet. Rafa will test him, of doubt there is no doubt. I don't believe you can suddenly start winning BIG matches when you haven't been doing it all year.
I don't have a million stats like Tennis Capper has (which I will post to help people make their minds up). He is backing his picks up with stats and good luck to the lad. This is where you might agree or disagree but lets use this thread to help cap this match. Afterall like or dislike isn't getting money off the books the main objective here?
Good Luck with your Plays 
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