Madrid

Muchova K 2-0 10 units

The downfall of Kontaveit is real, from #7 in the world to #87 her lowest ranking since 2016. Kontaveit has always been good indoors, clay is not for her. I think it will be an easy win for Michova who's having an impressive year so far 15-5 coming back from injuries. 

@Bjorn_Borg

 I think betting on exact sets has too much risk involved, no matter the opponent. 

She just lost 2-0 against Papamichail in her home country, something is not right with her. Michova beat Osaka her last year and had 2 MB against Sakkari.

I think last year around 85% off all 1st round matches was under 2.5 set. I think a lot more of the women's matches goes under 2.5 than the men's, but sure everything is risky that's why it's a gamble :)

Btw what's the thing with 36-year-old double player Strycova Barbora doing a comeback in the single round? She hasn't played any tennis since 2020, she had a baby and started a pod...now she's doing a comeback?

Apparently a comeback with her old double partner Hsieh Su-we now 37.. seems like a waste of spots, I'm sure there are some young players that would have done anything for a wildcard

Fils - 1 unit

Shevchenko - 2 units

Kotov Over 22.5 - 2 units

Hanfmann+Ruse - 3 units

thought the same thing......had to do a double take  

What’s the right bet here? Game spread? This looks ripe for the taking.

How about little borg last week?  He made me some money. GL for Madrid man ! Let’s get it 

@nattyorange

 That was great to see! His biggest title to date, hope he will have a good year.

Cirstea 2-0 6 units

@Bjorn_Borg

 Again, u were right, spot on but they gave her the second set, I also bet second set. After that, I bet recover on a under 8. Davis looked bad.

Update: Kontaveit, what do you think so far??? I can't get a positive read on what is happening, its like a sea-saw.

Yeah so annoying...how do you go from 86% first serve in the 1st set to 38% in the second just to go back up 87% in the 3rd... I did tilt -2.5 after the second set but a bit annoying, had Cristea 2-0, Muchova 2-0 and Cocciaretto 2-0 in a triple.

Yeah I think she looks better then I thought to be honest, but still a long way back for hope, hopefully she will be fully fit and back in form for the hard/indoor season after summer. 

Kenin 10 units

Friedsam 5 units

I really like Shevchenko A. today, might put some more into him after some more matches have finished. 

The conditions in Madrid favour big hitters 

Muchova 

Muchova Gracias 

Schevchenko 

What is the deal with Kenin.  Has all the talent, but not showing it on the court.

Kenin unofficially retired from professional tennis the moment after winning the Australian Open 2020.

Too much money being given to these LTA players in the past several years.

Krawczyk, Schuurs 1.8

This one fits the bill for me

Form: won Stuttgart last week and 11/6 for the year.

Played together: 65 games in total 42 wins.

Madrid record: Final last year.

Azarenka/Haddad

Form: Azarenka is 4/2 in double this year, Haddad 5/6. Azarenka hasn't won a clay double since 2019.

Played together: 0 matches

Madrid record: 0

Liked this when I first saw the draw, with Haddad just lost after 2h I like it even more, don't think she will recharge for this one.

Is Krawczyk, Schuurs worthy of a 10 unit banger?

@Bjorn_Borg

 Tailing ya. Great find.

Hey Bjorn. Full time lurker here but I love what you bring to the forum. I had a few questions for you if you could accept my friend request so I can send you a PM. Thank you!

Tough loss. Get em back.