*****Dog Discussion July19th-July25th*****

Malisse +460 one unit risked. could not help myself. half unit on Russel and Larsson. half on Seppi and Mayer. all over Fish on ML with Pervak, by self, with Cornet and small with Melzer. Also 3 to win 2 on him -150 -3.5 games. that is my card (other than some truly micro dog plays I promise not to brag about after the fact if they hit).

oh and half unit Golubev -105

I love how Atlanta did the scheduling for today.  The organizers know that ESPN2 would be carrying their matches this afternoon at 3pm ET and 6pmET; they shoved Anderson/Lacko to 12pm ET and will desperately be hoping that their match is over before  ESPN2 comes on the air.  You can the execs screaming, "Please, please...straight sets!"

 Russell/Isner is on after the first match; nice to see Big John getting ESPN2 to himself after the Wimby epic.

GL today Jarrett... I might hop on a few of those Overs that you've got. Hope my Chak pick works out for us 

damnit this pisses me off. I was going to put a little bit more on Larsson, but 5dimes didn't have the line up at 3:30am when I went to bed. I woke up late and now she's up a set. They must have known something was up and didn't want to put it up for it to be pounded.

I do like Russell's chances today as well.  Hearing Isner describe the condition of his body was scary; not only the aches and pains but also the blisters and skin gone.  Certainly that had to contribute to his struggle in Rd. 1.  Russell is a scrapper, maybe should be nicknamed "Jack".  I also like the early line moves, which favored Russell slightly. 

Fish seems to be an entirely diff player since early this year when he dropped 15-20 pounds.  My wife, who watches tennis in passing, even commented on how different he looked at Wimby.  It's tought o quantify the effect of slimming down so much, but his results lately have been impressive (11-2 in past 3 tourneys).  A lot of the match comes down to how Dent serves (aces, SWs, DFs) b/c Fish is going to serve well based n his recent form.

Malisse always impresses me w/ his consistency.  He serves well enough to keep Roddick's middling return game at bay, and he has no fear against the better players.  He has beaten Djokovic, JCF and Isner all in the past few months, and is 13-7 at ATP level since the beginning of March.  Definitely worth a play at +400 or better, plus the early line move favors him.

adding Lacko 6.25 units
over 23 games 1.25 units

Chakvetadze knocks off Vera  

Final card

Rusell +245 1.3 units
Mayer +150 1.75 units
Voegele +175 1.15 units
Russell/Isner over 23.5 +100 2 units
Golubev/Istomin over 22.5 -125 1.25 units
Mayer/JCF over 22 -130 1.3 units
Patricia Mayr +155 1.43 units
Sandra Zahlavova +210 .98 unit
 
Tailing BP26
M.Fish Games Won -3½ -155 3.88 units
Larsson +350 .3 units


Tailing Daviddaman
Anna Chakvetadze -140 1.68 units

11 units Russell/Isner over 23.5

Russel is going out like a bitch. I cooked lunch and did not even check the match out and he is already down a set and a break. Wow. Thought superior rallying would be a factor but obviously Isner is getting the best of him there as well. Whitewash of a match.

yeah and Isner is looking like he did pre wimbledon. I am likely done with tennis until next week. If I see a line I like I might jump on it. Good luck guys.

You will feel better after you have had some Fish.

you think Fish will wipe the floor with Dent? I stunk other then my marchenko pick on this hardcourt tourney. The clay wasn't so bad at times.

Have you seen Dent play this week? All Mardy has to do is be average. Plus two 3 setters in a row will not be good for Dent's body. I question his match fitness. I think Mardy wins in two sets, one being a blowout double break and the other might be tighter.

Dent has played as bad as anyone I have ever seen that has won two matches in a row. His match vs Blake was one of the worst of the year by all accounts and he played like shit vs Zeballos as well, stuff like DFing four times in his first game of the match. The UE-winner ratio for him should be at least 2-1 and he will serve at least 7 double faults. That is a lot of gifted points for Mardy, who is very solid from the baseline.

In backhand to backhand rallies Mardy will massacre this guy. I am not sure why the line is drifint down. I have read nothing about an injury. H2H is 1-0 Dent but that was five years ago before his injury--he is a totally different player right now and a shell of what he once was.  Line movement can be scary but they are wrong this time, I am 95% sure of it.

Locking in on Seppi +185 vs Melzer now for two units. He is 2-0 vs Melzer on clay including a 2 and 0 win last year in a Masters Event, and I have liked Seppi's form a lot for some time now. I love this pick. 1 unit on Golubev +130 as well.

Fish has grown to something like a 15 unit value just on the moneyline so am hedging one unit on Dent +235 to be safe(r). Fish still makes or breaks my week. Just need him to win for this to be a huge day, the 3.5 is a bonus.

Fish rolled his ankle near the end of the ginepri match, might be gimpy for tonight.

he had to withdraw from doubles with roddick because of it.

mother fucker. Thanks for the info. I only watched his first set vs Ginepri, had money on Ginepri. This complicates things, might hedge a bit harder now.

It is disgusting the amount of luck Dent has this week. He is playing like total shit and even if I hedge it won't be completely because Fish on one leg should still be god enough to beat this horrible player.

another half unit hedge on Dent. I have to believe if unable to play to the level where Dent dominates him that Mardy would retire.

I had a Pervak(money) Isner parlay...Golubev and Chaka Khan today...

I like Dent at that price...weirder things have happened lately... 

Dent finally got what he deserved 3-6 0-6. Zeballos can go to hell for letting this player bagel him! I do not think Mardy is some elite player but I literally thin a good challenger player could have beat Dent this week.

I bumped Larsson up to a unit but to be fair will just go by what I posted on the board.

Fish -3.5 -150 3 to win 2 +2

Fish/Pervak 2 units risked to win 1.5 +1.5

Fish/Cornet half unit risked to win half +.5

Fish/Melzer half unit to win 0.6 +0.6

Malisse +460 minus one unit (he choked IMO)

Russel +260 half unit risked

Larsson +375 (one unit risked but i said half here so) +1.85

Seppi +185 half unit risked +0.90 (about)

Mayer +150 half unit +0.75

Late Dent hedges 1.5 units (dont regret the one unit but maybe I regret the extra half unit I added)

+5.10 on these officially posted moves

As stated before I made micro parlays of all dogs and Fish and that netted me a few more units. A few more units from Fish on the ML as well as I really hammered it. So those four extra put me at around 9 units for the day and if you believe me on adding a half unit more to Larsson then that means I netted more than ten units profit today.

No matter how you slice it this was a great day. And week. First day hit 3 of 4 dogs, skipped second, third day hit both dogs and then today in some ways was the best one yet.

This has so far been one of my best weeks ever. Other than today have not risked much but am up over twenty units this week. GL to you guys tomorrow.

*switched up the Cornet and Melzer values on accident but it adds up the same, she was -185 and him -205 when I plugged the play in.

oh yeah and half unit Golubev was too, forgot I had that posted/played. He was awesome.

I lean tomorrow on all dogs on the men's side, Seppi two units Golub one unit and Anderson a half unit that I might bump up to one. I expect the Seppi line to go down and that is why I plugged in early. I think the Isner line might rise. Probably Golubev too.