*****Dog Discussion July19th-July25th*****

nice day BP, hang in there Jarrett... just a few bad breaks, no big deal. 

BP & Jarrett, got to give you props for todays insight.
Went with Melzer and Fish and cashed nicely.
I saw a post you put up BP about MLB plays. ill try and help u out with some picks
BOL to everyone

I have a parlay and if I win it, then I will be betting the weekend, if not I may still post, but won't be playing anything. It should be over by noon at the latest. Good luck in the morning guys.

Thanks man. I am pretty good at poker and they have this freeplay freeroll twice a week that I always do well at (and I hate tournament poker) so I think it might be an ongoing thing. I just won another 300 freeplay by getting 5th tonight so with the 200 left from the last prize that is 500 I need to find a way to try and extract value from!

I told ya Fish was good for ya Jarett. shouldnt be that bad a day when you hit your biggest pick right? Was a smart move trusting me on that one. My only regret was only having 3 units on 5dimes for the -3.5 because as stated I wanted to put at least 5 on it.

Official card:

Seppi +185 2 units

Pervak EVEN 1.5 units

Pervak/Larsson over 21.5 EVEN 1 unit

Golubev +130 1 unit

Anderson +260 1 unit

Cornet/Goerges over 21.5 EVEN half unit

Like the card a lot, would rate it a 7 on 1-10 scale. I do fear I may have put too much on my top three picks, would knock them each down by a half unit if I could do it over, but that is only 1.5 extra risked so not the end of the world.

adding Hercog -110, 0.6 units to win 0.5

Always good to see cappers who put in the time doing research get locked in to a zone... everyone here can remember a losing wager that still makes them sick to their stomach... Working together as a group is extremely beneficial for positive long term results. This is an excellent tennis forum we have here and with everyone's help will become even better. GL everyone!

 Gonna get the day rolling with these two...

Meusburger/Bacsinszky over 21 for half a unit

Pervak/Larsson over 21.5 for half a unit

Also just read that Fish pulled out of his doubles game to focus more on the singles... I know Roddick has overwhelming numbers vs Fish but I'm very curious to get a look at the total in this match.

it wasn't that bad of a day, I just lost patience and bet a game I shouldn't. I have taken right at double digits from my book in the last few weeks and still had a lot left in there. Now I have had to reload and don't want to go on tilt and start giving it back by the chunks. It's more of a step back to reassess and then go from there. Because I get pissed when I lose and then it snowballs.

Cornet/Goerges over 21.5 for half a unit (tailing BP on this one)

Been there bro Chasing is the #1 way they get us. I see sometimes you put out monster unit amounts like 15 and stuff. I used to do that but now try and use the 1-3 unit system with rare exceptions. Sure you win less when you hit but when you lose you are less pissed about your money management and less likely to tilt.

yeah exactly, when I get hot I tend to try and strike while the irons hot, but sometimes I win and sometimes I lose. I am still trying to do the money management thing, but still have that Jekyll/Hyde thing at times where the bad person pops up.

lol me too. I drink less potion now though so Mr. Hyde only comes out once a month or so instead of three times a week.

yea i reread and saw the 11 units on Russel. i added up your card and it looked about break even before that one. you still seem like you have hit more monster plays than you missed so keep your head up.

btw a lot of people think Russel was injured, stating no way does he win only 3 games in a match on hard vs anyone. Him going down that easy was the chock of the day for me, far exceeding the Larsson +375 6-3 6-2 upset.

*shock

yeah I thought if Isner had played the way he has since Wimbledon and Russell played decent then the over would have hit. But Russell looked like a local tennis pro vs Isner. I have one leg of my big parlay done. I would tell what it is but I don't want to jinx it. I will post the tickets later, but this would be huge. I will give a hint on the first part, it just ended 3 minutes ago and it made me nervous after the first set. but by the end

rant on Seppi, down a set and 1-4.

0 for 5 on break points. that sums it up right there. also choked horribly at the end of the first set, including missing an easy passing shot. I am the first to admit when I make a bad pick.... like say JCF over Montanes... but this one I do not feel bad about. I think I had the matchup right tactically, that Seppi could force Melzer into errors, generating just enough offense himself with his aggressive mentality this week. Seppi has been mentally solid this week, he literally only choked one or two points vs Bellucci and that was in the lead.

I really think this scoreline came down to one seemingly minor thing.... Seppi chose to receive first when winning the toss. the fucking idiot. how could you not know you are a choker... serving second sets up the exact scenario he faced, failing to break early and leaving it on serve then getting tight serving to stay in it then because of this you have to face the same scenario second set, down a break to boot. I think for the mentally weak serving first is very important. Stupid fucking move, Seppi. I was not happy to see him choose this prematch and he proved why in a big way.

Underestimated what a choker he is too. I knew it was bad but man has he been dreadful at key moments. I guess now Melzer is "too big" for Seppi to handle beating mentally, number 15 in the world. I think if Melzer had a shit year and was a moderate unknown like at the clay Masters series match last year Seppi would have won by grinding him down.

I would do this again at this price on clay for at least a half unit and maybe even a unit. I still think Seppi would win close to half of their encounters on clay. I would not put two on him again due to the choke factor. I knew I put a bit too much on this one. Live and learn. 

oh and Seppi today is pretty much fucked now but I have to think longterm and not chase.

adding Anderson +3 -125 1.25 to win 1. I love this spread a lot. It is very hard for me to see Isner breaking his serve and I think his form last round was perhaps a mirage.

nice on Timea lol. i thought about a bet the other way and am glad i didnt because it would suck to lose after a 6-1 start. congrats on the over too MLM.

Seppi went out like a bitch. yeah fuck that half unit tops if they replayed this. maybe it was a shitty dog pick afterall. I hope the rest of my day is better!

one parlay is done, I had to split it because one of my books only allows $200 parlays, you have to email them to get an increase and that's where the second one comes in.

Won Parlay   $200.00 / $311.11
 Jurgen Melzer 2 vs Andreas Seppi (Semifinals) 0 Jurgen Melzer -225 (W)
 Yvonne Meusburger 1 vs Timea Bacsinszky (Semifinals) 2 Timea Bacsinszky -130 (W)

(betwriter victor) Won Parlay   $62.50 / $97.22
 Yvonne Meusburger 1 vs Timea Bacsinszky (Semifinals) 2 Timea Bacsinszky -130 (W)
 Jurgen Melzer 2 vs Andreas Seppi (Semifinals) 0 Jurgen Melzer -225 (W)

My BIG parlay still has a golf matchup to go and it looks good (knock on wood) with about 2 holes to play.

$200 tennis parlays.

adding one unit on POLONA HERCOG 2 - 0 +185

Just very sure that if Hercog wins at all it will be a Chak implosion and over quickly. Hercog is very talented and Chak has had an easy draw to get this far and even then almost blew it yesterday.

nice comeback man wish you would have warned me lol. jkjk.

I liked Hercog today, but decided on Timea in the end. Good luck.