Posted:
#1
He should win
1
Carlos
-3.5 a Juego?
Posted:
#5
Quote Originally Posted by jvarghese:
Quote Originally Posted by jtoler: havent seen neither play all tourney but I do know carlos at times lose focus and take his foot off the gas and we've all seen many comebacks from nole just saying Take foot off the gas pedal for a chance to go to finals? I no think so sir.
chance to go to finals means nothing I saw him lose focus against norrie in final earlier this year and against sinner and musetti in consecutive finals last yr never know whats gonna happen in a tennis match
Quote Originally Posted by jtoler: havent seen neither play all tourney but I do know carlos at times lose focus and take his foot off the gas and we've all seen many comebacks from nole just saying Take foot off the gas pedal for a chance to go to finals? I no think so sir.
1
Posted:
#6
I had a large wager on Alcaraz last round. He played an excellent match, but I had two knocks on him, small ones.
He had 40-0 a couple of times and he let it get to 40-30. Keeping in mind he was cruising at this point.
And of course the unthinkable end of the match where he had thoroughly outplayed Tsitsipas and got broken while serving for the match. Next game he had a match point on Tsitsipas' serve, and didn't convert and forced it into a relatively close tiebreak.
I was looking ahead at the live line. I think he was -1000 for the third set, but the 4th set line was online like -195 or something. The discrepancy? I believe the books believed if he was somehow to lose the third set, it would be a red flag and it could have been downhill from there.
So I know Carlos is being anointed the next big thing, but he's still only 20 years old. He doesn't have the experience that a Djokovic has from playing in 33 finals and winning 22 of them like Novak has. He needs to stay laser focused because Novak is dangerous.
Novak only has 2 titles on Clay though, and Carlos appears to be as comfortable on clay as Nadal. In the end, I do like Carlos to pull it out, but he's going to need to do it in either straights or 4 sets. Because I don't trust him if it goes to 5. I think a 5th set would favor Djokovic.
2
Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:
I had a large wager on Alcaraz last round. He played an excellent match, but I had two knocks on him, small ones. He had 40-0 a couple of times and he let it get to 40-30. Keeping in mind he was cruising at this point. And of course the unthinkable end of the match where he had thoroughly outplayed Tsitsipas and got broken while serving for the match. Next game he had a match point on Tsitsipas' serve, and didn't convert and forced it into a relatively close tiebreak. I was looking ahead at the live line. I think he was -1000 for the third set, but the 4th set line was online like -195 or something. The discrepancy? I believe the books believed if he was somehow to lose the third set, it would be a red flag and it could have been downhill from there. So I know Carlos is being anointed the next big thing, but he's still only 20 years old. He doesn't have the experience that a Djokovic has from playing in 33 finals and winning 22 of them like Novak has. He needs to stay laser focused because Novak is dangerous. Novak only has 2 titles on Clay though, and Carlos appears to be as comfortable on clay as Nadal. In the end, I do like Carlos to pull it out, but he's going to need to do it in either straights or 4 sets. Because I don't trust him if it goes to 5. I think a 5th set would favor Djokovic.
I had a large wager on Alcaraz last round. He played an excellent match, but I had two knocks on him, small ones. He had 40-0 a couple of times and he let it get to 40-30. Keeping in mind he was cruising at this point. And of course the unthinkable end of the match where he had thoroughly outplayed Tsitsipas and got broken while serving for the match. Next game he had a match point on Tsitsipas' serve, and didn't convert and forced it into a relatively close tiebreak. I was looking ahead at the live line. I think he was -1000 for the third set, but the 4th set line was online like -195 or something. The discrepancy? I believe the books believed if he was somehow to lose the third set, it would be a red flag and it could have been downhill from there. So I know Carlos is being anointed the next big thing, but he's still only 20 years old. He doesn't have the experience that a Djokovic has from playing in 33 finals and winning 22 of them like Novak has. He needs to stay laser focused because Novak is dangerous. Novak only has 2 titles on Clay though, and Carlos appears to be as comfortable on clay as Nadal. In the end, I do like Carlos to pull it out, but he's going to need to do it in either straights or 4 sets. Because I don't trust him if it goes to 5. I think a 5th set would favor Djokovic.
I think the over 37.5 is the best play for this match.
0
Posted:
#11
@jvarghese
I don't bet totals at all. I think that's a complete crapshoot. Like even if it goes 4 sets, the under could still hit cuz of the whacky set scores. Like even when Fed would play Djokovic and Nadal, he'd still have games where he's lose 6-1 because he knew he needed to concede and conserve his energy for the rest of the match.
6-4, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 is a very reasonable score and that would be an under. If you look at the odds, 6-3 is actually the score with the greatest probability to hit.
0
Posted:
#12
@yeghia
That's not a bad bet I suppose. But remember these young guys, they're often unpredictable. Casper Ruud made Rune look pretty silly last match. Zverev is far from perfect, but he's been a bit clutch lately.
And no, I don't really know my tennis. I just live bet tennis from time to time, so I look at live lines and how they move based on certain situations.
Oh do I miss the days when we could just bet Nadal every year at Roland Garros and collect 2 weeks later.
0
Posted:
#13
Before I go to sleep and wake up to the match, based on some stuff I've been reading and looking at, I think Novak is likely going to take the opening set. My best guess is 6-4 or 7-5. People think Novak may start slow, seeing as he lost the opening set to Karen last outing.
I'm seeing a ton of Alcaraz love, and he's probably going to come out with a chip on his shoulder for the first time in a long time being the rare occasion where he's an underdog.
I'm interested in seeing how Alcaraz would respond to dropping his first opening set. It'll show me how mature this kid is and whether he's ready for primetime. I remember first hearing about Alcaraz last year. He was playing Nadal and was up a set or two on him and he was favored to win, but faded towards the end of the match. Wondering if he's still that same guy. We'll see. I haven't been this excited to see a tennis match since Federer was in contention in a major.
0
Posted:
#15
I don’t know if you watch a lot of tennis but i can clearly say Alcaraz is past being ready for prime time. That was pretty stupid comment. Guys 30-4 this year, won last major he played in.
I still like joker +180. If alcaraz was +180 I’d like him lol.
I bet if u bet against alcaraz every match this year you be up money, and he’s only lost 4.
0
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