An Aussie Final caliber match up in the Quarterfinal tonight

My inner birdie self tells me to pick a match winner. 

Iga has been rolling over her opponents this tournament, as she should. Emma has been fighting for her life in all 3 matches, because she just loves full distance 3 set battles. 

The tale of 2 of the best in the game, with 2 different styles of play. A match that could easily be a Finals match

Fanduel:

Emma 2-1,  +1300

Iga 2-1, +430

2 juicy profitable lines. I dont see a straight set win for either. Emma wont allow it. 

Fanduel Game spread is 6.5

One of the keys to emma hanging around and pulling the upset is limit errors, little to none. Iga will make her pay. 

What do you all have? 

My first bet is small on Emma ML with the payout  $300 and change

I can only see this ending in a victory for Swiatek (most likely 2-0) - if there was a site that gave odds on Navarro never beating Swiatek in a Grand Slam while they both have active careers and the odds were over +100 I would bet my entire life savings on it in a heartbeat - and it would be such a safe bet the bank would allow me to use it for collateral

Why not just play over 18….

Iga in another blowout 

6-2 6-2

@Calde13

I mean, Emma did knock off Coco at the US Open last year in 3 sets. She did pretty good against Saba after that despite losing in straight sets, taking it to a tiebreaker in 2nd set. Emma has been known to be able to play with others in top form and top ranked. Iga isn't invisible to losing as I remember all too well losing money on Iga last year. 

First time i said no way no how at Wimbledon, when she lost to Putintseva. I said, ill get it back down the road. Banked on Iga to win at US Open and she went down to Jessica Pegula. So 0-2 on Iga so far. Havent bet on her this Aussie Open yet

@UnrankedChamp

 Its at 18.5 now

But I see they have Emma at 5.5 games. That seems low, wont win over 5.5? Im a believer she atleast wins a set if she loses. But if its straight sets, 6-3/6-4 type of result

@HuskyNation1

 Took Emma +1.5 sets 

I don't think Emma has the game to frustrate Iga when she gets on a roll like she is now.  The odds are indicative of this.

@Starnes

 Took Emma +4.5 for +250

I see this, if Iga wins, Emma scoring 2 or 3 per set, maybe 4 in set 2. I just dont see Emma rolling over. And if Emma wins, EVEN BETTER because im allll over that Emma ML with a small change $30 bet for a big payout

I got under 17 and a half games

This. 

If this match was happening towards the end of last year (when Iga was in a funk before she shuffled her coaching) I might approach this match differently. 

I've bet the Navarro ML at +200 or better with her down a break in the 3rd set in every match so far except for the Stearns match (and freaking killed it ). The Stearns match would've fit the bill too but I was on Stearns instead. So if you do want to bet Emma you could wait till then and get like a million to one odds against Iga.

Another way you could bet it on FanDuel is an exotic parlay like this one: 

Iga Set 1

Iga Set 2

Navarro +6.5 games

Odds: +243

So basically you're betting on Iga to win in straight sets but not completely demolish Emma. Like a 6-4 6-2 or 6-3 6-3.

Or you could sub out the +6.5 for over 17.5 games for +207. This would avoid losing on a result like 7-6 6-0.

I did a similar parlay with Sabalenka and Tauson +5.5 which worked out nicely at +300.

It's Iga or nothing for me.  Credit to Navarro she is tough as we saw by her hanging in each of her games and coming back when it looked like it was over but Iga is just on another level right now

Iga struggles vs players(Salba, Rybrinka, etc) who can overpower her with serves and power ground strokes.

Emma game doesn’t fit the bill.

@bringit

 I like the idea

Since my Emma ML bet is just a total shot in the dark and prayer she pulls off another grand slam upset and im honest deep down with myself, Iga wins... 

Adding 

Iga Set 1

Iga Set 2

Over 17.5 games

I can see  a score like 6-3, 6-3 or 6-2, 7-5 for Iga in straight sets. Of course rooting for emma but can potentially save myself if Iga runs her off the court like she done to everyone else so far