@wgomel21
You would be very disappointed in me to hear that i went haddad ml after i saw collins down a few games in the 1st set.
instead of winning 300 on ml and spread i lost 270
turned a winner into a loser. AGGH
I didnt realize you had gm spread so i after i be ML i bet games also, and i hedged out dir a loss.
You really do have to wonder how that match would've played out without the rain. Both times it was Danielle Collins who went to the locker room, but it was the Danimal that came back out on court.
She comes back out, wins 9 straight games like a boss, then starts slipping a bit, Bea gets the break back, then at 3-3 she finds herself serving at 0-30. Momentum had completely swung the other way and it seemed like one of those moments where she might just lose the rest of the games in the set and come back fighting in the third. But fortunately mother nature had other plans and we got to see the Danimal again.
I had quite a bit riding on her, not only the game spread but 2-0 sets & ML as well. I had parlayed Paolini/Errani 2-0 + Danimal 2-0 pre-match and then I also did a live bet after watching Putinseva battle in the first set but come up just short . I took Putinseva to win 2nd set (+320) and Collins ML (+185) for a 1/2 unit at +1097. Guess I should've went for the Putinseva ML but I already had 1/2 unit on that from this morning.
A little ways into the second set I hedged some by taking Bea to win the set. But when that second delay happened I did something I typically would never do when I'm already so heavily invested. I cashed out the $100 Bea hedge bet for $197, then took half of it and put it on Collins to win the set and saved the other half to put back on Bea should Collins win that 7th game.
It just seemed way more likely that Collins could win that game after a delay than it would have been had the match played on originally. And I knew if she did win it I could hedge back on Bea at a similar or better price. Risky move lol but I had some time to think about it and everything I've touched lately has turned to gold so I went for it.
Watching the way Collins played when she came back out in the first set along with how lights out Rybakina was in her first set had me thinking they must've both been back there watching Iga go down and so they came out extra fired up knowing their half of the draw had opened up even more.
@wgomel21
I wonder if Badosa can pull the off the ole classic 'steamroll after rain delay' trick. I ended up laying off of her ML and instead put a small amount on 2-0 sets with the intention of coming back in on her ML if she dropped the first. As soon as the delay started her ML jumped to +475 at one of my books and I couldn't believe it was that high so I jumped in. It's back down to +340 now without another point being played so not sure how that happened.
When I was looking through her matches this year, almost all of the 3 set matches she has won have been matches where she dropped the first set, sometimes in dramatic fashion like 1-6 versus Navarro and against Halep. The notable exception would be her last match where it was the second set she dropped against Kasatkina. I can remember watching some of those matches and seeing her come back in the second set like a different player. So that kinda drove my betting strategy on her today.
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