9/1

Naomi Osaka +125

500/625

GL

why so confident?

Let's go! 

@Jeepguy77

 What about that post screams confident 

Came here to see if everyone was on Osaka, as I am thinking about her too. The plus juice is tempting me. We know what Osaka was, but she hasn't been able to get to that level. Was +125 yesterday. Feels like good value for someone that has shown dominance in the past. Just feels like a little too much value. 

Only 2 people (plus me), picking the match so far. All 3 people on Osaka. 

@Jeepguy77 

@slamspurs

 Osaka has great history here. She has the talent, but not the mental game. If mental game (love for the sport) is the question, familiarity and two titles in the tourny should help. Gauff obviously a US favorite, but time for her to crash out of this major tourny like she did last year. 

Beginning of this year, Osaka came out and said she wants to win Majors before she retires. Shows she may be back to caring. She's in slightly better form than Coco as well, so at +$, I'm in. 

GL

@UnderdogKing

 Lets get it 

Ive had a great this year in mostly major tournaments, popping in here and there  let's hope to keep that rolling

This opened at +170, I was just late to the party. The movement to +120 should make you feel better 

LIVE: Rublev -1.5 SETS -120

240/200

GL

Rublev mental collapse incoming 

@Whackamole

 No kidding. He really started shitting bricks as soon as I jumped on live is what it is

Win majors before she retires? She's thinking about retirement already? She's 27!

@slamspurs

 She thought about retirement when she was 24  where have you been? Haha. She went through a rough times

Well I ended up taking Osaka. Good luck to us. I actually think it's over in straights. Let's hope she gets the first set or I'll consider cashing out. 

Ooooooo Sucka 

she is a crying little Bxxxx

@Gavinnick

 Definitely dramatic and poor me, I'll give you that. But she is in excellent form and looks sharp

Alexandrova/Zhang -135

270/200

GL

Pretty damn good first set from Osaka. Only dropped two points on serve which is incredible when you consider that her 1stIn% was 39% against the top returner on tour.

@bringit

 She just looks free. She has always had top talent, just couldnt get through some demons. This is a home away from home for her. She may win the whole thing 

@Jeepguy77

@Im_Chasing

 I agree. I'm not really much of a fan because of the drama/poor me attitude like you mentioned earlier. But she's been on fire since she got a new coach with the exception of the debacle in the Canadian final. I've got her to win the quarter at +300 and feeling really good about that now.

She ended up losing a total of 6 points in 8 service games. And Gauff is statistically the best returner on tour this season. Starting with Osaka's last service game of the first set I bet under 6 points in each of her games on serve and won 4 of 5. Gauff only got to 30 a single time on Osaka's serve. Crazy.

@jvarghese

@bringit

 Yeah she kinda just mopes around. But her new thing is to just laugh everything off and always smile, which is weird and feels so fake. But hey, she looks like she'll beat anyone right now, so good for her.

Oh nice, great price. Yeah what is crazy is that we all knew Gauff had just changed her serve heading into this, but it looked like she had 0 confidence in anything, even her forehand. She was serving light to start as if she was still warming up. Can't do that against a former champion. 

Yeah that is wild to think about. It was absolute domination. 

Not to sound like a hater, but in no way do I think that Coco Gauff is better than Sabalenka. It was all luck that she beat her or any other top player in my opinion. 

So it's easy for me and a lot of people to dismiss Coco as a top player.

I watched some Osaka highlights from the last match, and was shocked she was broken so many times. Her backhand is a thing of beauty to watch. 

The men's draw is coming together as expected. Let's see if the women's is Iga and Sabalenka as should be expected. 

Naomi's return is a cool story line to watch though. Even if she politics irks me. 

@slamspurs

 Sabalenka is absolutely a better player than Coco and I don't know anyone who would claim otherwise. But it's hard to argue that Sabalenka is better on return than her. Coco has been statistically better on return than Sabs for at least the past 3 years if not more. That's not really debatable since it's a large sample size and they play against opponents of similar quality due to their rankings.

Gauff has also been the top returner for both 2024 and 2025. Points won on serve are a completely different story however.