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XTC's Statistical NFL System (last thread erased?)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Thread must have gotten erased somehow, perhaps it was how I was formatting it.


The results are in.  Honestly, I am actually legitimately surprised I even came up with rational numbers that coincide with what the books are thinking.  There is only 1 game that ended up standing out where a team is laying chalk and the underdog is the computer pick by a wide margin.  My computer either totally disrespects Houston or has warm feelings for Cleveland.

That leads me to wonder exactly how these spreads are thought of.  Remember, I do not skew results for :

1. Strength Of Schedule
2. Home / Away
3. Wins Losses
4. Any previous ATS 

So everything is basically "straight-up" if you want to view it in that manner.  So no such thing as home field advantage of turf/grass etc..

1. Bookies say San Diego - 8.5 / Computer Says San Diego -9.54

2. Bookies say Houston -4.5 / Computer Says Kansas City -4.1

3. Bookies say New England -2.5 / Computer Says NE - 2.05

4. Bookies say New Orleans -4 / Computer Says PK (NO <1/4th pt)

5. Bookies say Philly -2.5 / Computer Says PK (Phil Almost -1/2pt)

6. Bookies say NYG -10 / Computer Says NYG -4.13

7. Bookies say Chicago -6 / Computer Says Chicago -1

8. Bookies say Green Bay -3 / Computer Says GB - 2.15

9. Bookies say Pitt - 14 / Computer Says Pitt -5.39

10. Bookies say NYJ - 3 / Computer Says NYJ - 4.87

11. Bookies say San Fran -7 / Computer Says San Fran -1/2

12. Bookies say Minnesota -1.5 / Computer Says Minnesota -1/2

13. Bookies say Indianapolis -3 / Computer Says Indy -2.52

14. Bookies say Tennessee -3 / Computer Says Tennessee -6.2


So there you have it.  Feel free to comment or call me an 8-up kinda guy.  Tough to hurt my feelings!

GL to all no matter which way you go.  But I warn you not to fade Hal-9000, haha.
 
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Posted: #2
Aggregate Point Totals: 609 Points = 1 Pt Spread

1. San Diego  5106.385
2. NY Giants   2498.438
3. NY Jets 2168.242
4. Pittsburgh  1901.814
5. Tennessee 1783.474
6. Philly           1637.653
7. Atlanta 1406.877
8. Patriots 1248.842
9. Chicago 1167.809
10. KC Chiefs 1153.505
11. GB Pack 1005.557
12. Seattle 589.6837
13. Cincinnati 579.2942
14. NO Saints 423.9235
15. TB Bucs 411.1044
16. Indy Colts 186.6481
17. Minn 48.98031
18. Baltimore -5.38663
19. Detroit -16.7475
20. Dallas -243.504
21. Miami -304.626
22. St Louis -706.059
23. Denver -800.05
24. Wash -1353.62
25. Houston -1362.34
26. Cleveland -1381.44
27. Carolina -1488.71
28. San Fran -1676.51
29. Jags  -2033.1
30. Oakland        -2166.74
31. Arizona  -2932.25
32. Buffalo  -3420.83
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
'Thread must have gotten erased somehow'

It was moved because other websites were posted, which is against forum rules.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Oh, this makes sense I guess.  I thought this pertained to advertisements though and not website addresses.  Oddly enough it was just moved to another forum.

Btw, I tried sending you a PM but received some error conveying that we weren't good enough friends or something to be telling secrets, ha.

Anyway, GL everyone.
 
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Posted: #5
...so you are saying the 3 best bets are:

KC + points
Pitt
Chi

...right
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
I'm not saying anything.  This is the first week of beta testing.

I just highlighted the spreads that had the greatest differential.  Please don't view this as advice.  I just wanted to post this so continuing on if this does indeed pan out I just didn't come up with something out of left field if you know what I mean. 

The original thread can be found in website promotion forums I believe.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
By the way, the computer says Pitt should be -5.xx, so you would want to go the other way.  Does that make sense?

For example, Tennessee would be a better pick according to the computer opposed to Pitt.
 
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Posted: #8

The issue from a capping (which side to bet) perspective is how does the computer take into account recent form, team psychology, injuries, other motivational factors (revenge, dissage and shit-talkin bulletin bd material), whistle benefits...  and so on.  

Most computer programs are making predictions based on a fixed data set; and thats a major factor of capping, but hardly nuff to throw money at. So take the data for what its worth...  but I'd be wary about takin on the books when they offer up distorted lines. More times than not you'll be the one mugged in the alley with empty pockets.

I'm not btin on the "too many points" bait...in fact, Giants, Steelers & Niners will all make my card in one fashion or another.

 

 
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Posted: #9
exactly, and the chiefs have no left tackle to at all and no backup, mario williams will have a crazy day tomorrow
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
IMO revenge, BB Material, etc. are all just media hype and square angles.  A lot of people love to make picks on that but I haven't seen one thing that had led me to believe any of this information is relevant.  There are other factors that go beyond the bounds of this conversation of course.

Good luck to all, but I could care less about "emotion" in the NFL where the talent is very equal and the game is played in a very different format than the college arena.  Hopefully over time I am able to prove this statistically. 

The point I am trying to make is that I can correlate a large enough sample size of relevant/meaningful data to an ATS system.

Again, GL
 
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Posted: #11
Results for early games:

Highlighted Games (3-1 ATS)

1. Computer Says Kansas City - 4.1 / Win (Spread + 4.5)
2. Computer Says NYG - 4.13 / Win (Spread - 10)
3. Computer Says Chicago -1 / Win (Spread -7)
4. Computer Says Pitt - 5.49 / Loss (Spread -14)

Non-Highlighted Games (0-5 ATS)

1. Computer Says San Diego - 9.54 / Loss (Spread -9)
2. Computer Says New England - 2.05 / Loss (Spread -3)
3. Computer Says New Orleans PK (< 1/4) / Loss (Spread -4)
4. Computer Says Philly PK / Loss (Spread - 2.5)
5. Computer Says Green Bay - 2.15 / Loss (Spread -3)

Games SU (No Spread - Computer Picks Winner  5-4)

1. San Diego / Loss
2. Kansas City / Loss
3. New England / Win
4. Saints / Win (< 1/4)
5. Philly / Win (<1/2)
6. NYG / Win
7. Chicago / Loss
8. GB / Loss
9. Pitt / Win


_______________

It seems that the highlighted plays that the computer identifies that are off by a margin of > 4 so far are panning out.  It seems that I got unlucky with that Cleveland game and might have been lucky with the Lions.  So I guess those cancel out.

The others non-highlighted games were too close statistically to call and it would seem that the results of the early games called for this as well.

Interested to see how the rest pan out.

GL Everyone
 
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Posted: #12
Results for late games:

Highlighted Plays (0-1 ATS / 3-2 ATS Overall)

1. Oakland + 7 / Loss

Non Highlighted Plays (1-1  / 1-6 Overall)

1. NYJ -3 / Win
2. Dallas + 1.5 / Loss

Games SU - (3-0 / 8-4 Overall)

1. CPU says NYJ -4.87 / NYJ -3 / Win
2. CPU saus San Fran -1/2 / San Fran - 7 / Win
3. CPU says Minn -1/2 / Minnesota - 1.5 / Win

A developing trend already looks like it is forming with the computer not taking something into account with the Non-Highlighted games ATS.

Still too early to tell though.  As we progress further into the season the stats should start to carry more confidence as well as the results becoming more clear.

One thing that is interesting to note is that all of the highlighted games had a legit shot of all covering.  Of course, you could flip that coin and go the other way as well.  Still too early to assume anything.  A few more weeks should show more clarity.
 
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Posted: #13
This is also interesting.  If I skew for either a home/away game with the classic 3 point thinking.

Adjusted Scoring

1. Computer Says SD - 6.54 / St Louis = W
2. Computer Says KC - 1.1 / KC = W
3. Computer Says NE - 5.05 / NE = W
4. Computer Says Saints -3.25 = Bucs L
5. Computer Says Philly -3.5 = Philly W
6. Computer Says NYG - 7.13 = Detroit W
7. Computer Says Bears -4 = Seattle W
8. Computer Says GB - 5.15 = GB L
9. Computer Says Pitt -8.39 = Clev L
10. Computer Says NYJ - 1.87 = Den L
11. Computer Says San Fran - 3.5 = Oak L
12. Computer Says Minnesota -3.5 = Min W

Gives a 7-5 Total ATS.  Not enough games played yet though, but I will continue to keep track of everything.

 
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Posted: #14
Sunday Night

Non Highlighted Plays (0-0-1 ATS / 1-6-1 Overall)

1. Computer Said Indy - 2.5 / Wash (Push)

Straight up (No Spread 1-0 / Overall 9-4)

1. Computer said Indy -2.5 / Indy W

Highlighted Plays (3-2 ATS Overall) / Highlighted Play for Mon. Night on the line 

Bookie says Tenn - 3 / Computer says Tenn - 6.2
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Monday Night

Highlighted Play (1-0 / 4-2 ATS)

1. Computer Says Tenn - 6.2 / W

SU (No Spread CPU Picks Winner 1-0 / 10-4 Overall)

1. Computer Says Tenn - 6.2 / W


Adjusted Scoring For Home / Away Games (1-0 / 8-5 ATS)

1. Computer Says SD - 6.54 / St Louis = W
2. Computer Says KC - 1.1 / KC = W
3. Computer Says NE - 5.05 / NE = W
4. Computer Says Saints -3.25 = Bucs L
5. Computer Says Philly -3.5 = Philly W
6. Computer Says NYG - 7.13 = Detroit W
7. Computer Says Bears -4 = Seattle W
8. Computer Says GB - 5.15 = GB L
9. Computer Says Pitt -8.39 = Clev L
10. Computer Says NYJ - 1.87 = Den L
11. Computer Says San Fran - 3.5 = Oak L
12. Computer Says Minnesota -3.5 = Min W
13. Computer Says Tennessee - 3.2 = Tenn W
 
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Posted: #16


There are two small changes in the way these numbers were calculated.  One is related strictly to offense.  I am skewing the results for how many first downs were afforded by penalties.  I am doing this with a negative skew.  This hurts a team like Baltimore, because unless the statistics I am using are faulty, I see that they have been afforded 20 first downs by penalties on the year.  Whether or not they have “earned” these, I am skewing them negatively, so there is a small change there.

 

Another change I am making should more accurately predict the spread.  I am using the “z-score” method to “standardize scoring”.   These will be THE LAST CHANGES I will make so I can understand how this model performs without any more variations throughout the year.  This will give the lines a better statistical advantage when formulating my hypothesis.  The formula involves the following:

     1.       Teams Overall Score

2.       St Deviation of Population (32 overall scores)

3.       Population Mean

 

                The formula is calculated such as this:

                Z=(x- µ)/ s

            Z = score

            X = mean

            µ = population mean

            s = standard deviation of population

 


 
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Posted: #17

NON ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY ATS

1.       Book Says Pitt -3  @Miami / Computer Says Pitt -1.88

2.       Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati /  Computer Says Atl -2.21

3.       Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says KC – 5.41

4.       Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*

5.       Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago - .084

6.       Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says * NO – 3.712*

7.       Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*

8.       Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San Fran -4.25

9.       Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says Tampa -5.9

10.   Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*

11.   Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -1.96

12.   Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -4.6

13.   Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says Minn -.6726

14.   Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says *NYG -2.55*



 
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Posted: #18

ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY (3 Points For Home Team)

 

1.       Book Says Pitt -3  @Miami / Computer Says Miami -1.11

2.       Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati /  Computer Says Atl -5.21

3.       Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says * KC – 8.4*

4.       Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says  Tenn -1.41

5.       Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago – 3.08

6.       Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says  *NO – 6.712*

7.       Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 6.42*

8.       Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San Fran -1.25

9.       Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says * Tampa -8.9*

10.   Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -12.55*

11.   Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -4.96

12.   Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -7.6

13.   Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says GB-2.32

14.   Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says Dal -.44

 
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Posted: #19
BTW, this website doesn't recognize the "sigma" symbol apparently, so it coincidentally formatted the symbol to "s" I believe in the equations 2 posts above.

Overall Teams Scores -> Point Totals -> Standardized Totals

1.678105 Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers New York Giants New York Jets New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons Tennessee Titans Miami Dolphins Chicago Bears Washington Redskins Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos Houston Texans Baltimore Ravens Dallas Cowboys Minnesota Vikings Cincinnati Bengals Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers Jacksonville Jaguars Detroit Lions St. Louis Rams Buffalo Bills Oakland Raiders Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals -3.14835
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20

San Diego Chargers         18845.95055      1.678105044

Indianapolis Colts             15389.04512      1.155500862

Kansas City Chiefs            15121.79369      1.115098624

Philadelphia Eagles          14632.29289      1.041097419

New England Patriots      14372.56133      1.001832011

Pittsburgh Steelers         14288.31578      0.989096031

New York Giants              14000.65684      0.945608651

New York Jets                  12461.92817        0.712988448

New Orleans Saints         12270.12008       0.6839915

Atlanta Falcons               12266.54346         0.683450797

Tennessee Titans             11020.17035       0.495027997

Miami Dolphins               9991.910122         0.339578821

Chicago Bears                 9404.792837          0.250820261

Washington Redskins     9212.663589       0.22177476

Seattle Seahawks            8708.742217       0.145593499

Denver Broncos                             8507.443417         0.115161774

Houston Texans                             8442.304599         0.10531429

Baltimore Ravens           8339.645474         0.089794604

Dallas Cowboys                8180.41559           0.065722727

Minnesota Vikings           8037.040563       0.044047737

Cincinnati Bengals            7220.188146       -0.079441464

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  6842.193599       -0.136585501

Green Bay Packers          6503.231057       -0.187828801

Cleveland Browns            3804.928984       -0.595749695

San Francisco 49ers         3029.794125       -0.712932166


 
Prospect
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Posted: #21

Jacksonville Jaguars        2783.537289       -0.750160506

Detroit Lions                    2754.978802         -0.754477889

St. Louis Rams                2652.13295             -0.770025804

Buffalo Bills                       518.5956412         -1.092567322

Oakland Raiders            -1998.071958         -1.473029282

Carolina Panthers          -6664.328716        -2.178459428

Arizona Cardinals          -13079.92768         -3.148349675

 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #22
So then the highlighted plays would be KC, NO, Balt, TB and Sea, correct?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Please let me know if you are talking about the adjusted or non adjusted scoring, just so there are no mistakes
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Please also note these three things:

1.  The highlighted games are only as good as the spread I have provided above.  So if your spread is slanted in a direction that makes the opposite team more bias, it should be no longer highlighted in your mind.

2.  This is still beta, so DO NOT bet around these numbers.  Perhaps just use it as another marker for when you are capping your own games if you would feel the need to.

3.  Please ask questions if there is something you do not understand.  I know it isn't that straight forward.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25

Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati /  Computer Says Atl -2.21/ Win

Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says KC – 5.41/ Win

Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*/ Loss

Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago - .084/ Loss

Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says * NO – 3.712*/ Win

Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*/ Win

Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San Fran -4.25/ Loss

Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says Tampa -5.9/  Loss

Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*/  Win

Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -1.96/ Win

Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -4.6/ Win

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