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Using Mean Positioning Of Stats To Predict Chance Of Winning

Participants:

Posts: 31

Stake24

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 346

Posted: Nov. 15, 2008 - 5:51 PM ET #26

casinos are not afraid of steam chasers more often than not you always lose your chase or run out of funds

Tomspeople

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 1476

Posted: Nov. 15, 2008 - 6:00 PM ET #27

A = 4-6 -5.78u
B = 4-5 +0.25u
C = 6-12 -1.67u

November 15th, 2008
Tor/Van
Tor 50.70%
Toronto +153 [B]

Phi/Mon
Mon 58.41%
Phi +162 [C]

Was/NJ
Was 59.07%
Was -120 [A]

Ott/NYI
Ott 57.19%
NYI +137 [C]

Bos/NYR
Bos 54.27%
Bos +115 [B]

Buf/Pit
Pit 50.22%
Buf +135 [C]

Clb/Min
Min 51.29%
Clb +180 [C]

Dal/Phx
Phx 51.19%
No Play

Col/Edm
Col 56.84%
Col +125 [B]

Nsh/LA
LA 54.89%
Nsh +130 [C]

Stake24

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 346

Posted: Nov. 20, 2008 - 7:50 AM ET #28

Tom where did you go?

SecondAgain

Hall of Fame

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 25922

Posted: Nov. 20, 2008 - 9:13 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by kevk87:

Well if you know you have a winning edge, you would actually maximize on your expected value using kelly. So if you have a mathematical formula or a system which is better than a coin flip, then using kelly will help you in the long run. If you flat bet, you are actually neutralizing your edge.

100% correct

If you have an edge kelly can exploit it even more. No offence, but it's a fact. It does hurt more when you hit a run of outs, but long term you are in from

Run some tests using kelly and your current staking method. You will be pleasently surprised

SecondAgain

Hall of Fame

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 25922

Posted: Nov. 20, 2008 - 9:14 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by kevk87:

if you can consistently beat the closing line you would have an edge to your system. That is the reason casino's are afraid of steam chasers.

all depends. If you constantly beat Pinnacles closing line then you win long term. Even Pinnacle admit that