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Using Mean Positioning Of Stats To Predict Chance Of Winning

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Views: 916
Posts: 31
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 346
Posted: #26
casinos are not afraid of steam chasers more often than not you always lose your chase or run out of funds
 
Veteran
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1476
Posted: #27
A = 4-6 -5.78u
B = 4-5 +0.25u
C = 6-12 -1.67u

November 15th, 2008
Tor/Van
Tor 50.70%
Toronto +153 [B]

Phi/Mon
Mon 58.41%
Phi +162 [C]

Was/NJ
Was 59.07%
Was -120 [A]

Ott/NYI
Ott 57.19%
NYI +137 [C]

Bos/NYR
Bos 54.27%
Bos +115 [B]

Buf/Pit
Pit 50.22%
Buf +135 [C]

Clb/Min
Min 51.29%
Clb +180 [C]

Dal/Phx
Phx 51.19%
No Play

Col/Edm
Col 56.84%
Col +125 [B]

Nsh/LA
LA 54.89%
Nsh +130 [C]
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 346
Posted: #28
Tom where did you go?
 
Hall of Fame
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Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 25922
Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by kevk87:



Well if you know you have a winning edge, you would actually maximize on your expected value using kelly. So if you have a mathematical formula or a system which is better than a coin flip, then using kelly will help you in the long run. If you flat bet, you are actually neutralizing  your edge.

100% correct

If you have an edge kelly can exploit it even more. No offence, but it's a fact. It does hurt more when you hit a run of outs, but long term you are in from

Run some tests using kelly and your current staking method. You will be pleasently surprised

 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by kevk87:

if you can consistently beat the closing line you would have an edge to  your system.  That is the reason casino's are afraid of steam chasers.

all depends. If you constantly beat Pinnacles closing line then you win long term. Even Pinnacle admit that

 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 346
Posted: #31
Paging Tom

This system has been hitting at quiet a high rate the last 4 days.
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