Posted:
#276
We need to think of some filters. Can you post the data on google drive or something like that so I can play around with it?
0
Top Dog - NHL System
Posted:
#278
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
I like this idea, but it can be scary when there is a bad losing streak. Last year the top fave had winning streaks of 6, 9, 9, 7. Not sure I'd be able to chase this for 7-10 games. How many units would that 10th game be for and how many would you be down at that point?
I think I saw on here the betting progression is 1-5 units for the first 5 games. What is it for games 6-10?
The Top Dog having an extended losing streak is more likely than the "Top Favorite" having one. I checked 2011-2012 and similar to what Dan said about last year, there were many extended Fave streaks of 4-9 games. There were only a handful of Top Dog winning streaks longer than 2 games. Thus it might be a better idea to play the Top Favorite every night. At least that way you are playing with the stronger teams in the league. Yeah it is heavy juice but at least you're not chasing with lousy teams. Plus you can lay off the really big numbers and press a little to try and catch one of those streaks. Just my .02.
bol
0
Posted:
#285
10/11 GM1 NYI +165 (1 unit) = LOSS
10/12 GM2 BUFF+222 (2 units) = LOSS
10/13 GM3 FLA +130 (3 units) = LOSS
10/14 GM4 EDM +154 (4 units) = LOSS ***could have been DET +152 (which won) but the system says TOP DOG at close, so I am using EDM +154.
10/15 GM5 EDM +222 (5 units) = LOSS
10/16 GM6 CAL +183 (6 units) = LOSS
10/17 GM7 FLA +156 (7 units) = LOSS
10/18 GM8 PHO +128 (8 units) = LOSS
10/19 GM9 CAL +231 (9 units) = LOSS
10/20 GM10 DAL +201 (10 units) = LOSS
10/21 GM11 CAL +188 (11 units).....pending
10/12 GM2 BUFF+222 (2 units) = LOSS
10/13 GM3 FLA +130 (3 units) = LOSS
10/14 GM4 EDM +154 (4 units) = LOSS ***could have been DET +152 (which won) but the system says TOP DOG at close, so I am using EDM +154.
10/15 GM5 EDM +222 (5 units) = LOSS
10/16 GM6 CAL +183 (6 units) = LOSS
10/17 GM7 FLA +156 (7 units) = LOSS
10/18 GM8 PHO +128 (8 units) = LOSS
10/19 GM9 CAL +231 (9 units) = LOSS
10/20 GM10 DAL +201 (10 units) = LOSS
10/21 GM11 CAL +188 (11 units).....pending
0
Posted:
#291
darn it...
| 203905632-1 | 10/21/13 7:59pm | $25.00 | $109.00 | Pending | 10/21/13 10:35pm NHL Hockey 5 Calgary Flames -1 +436* vs Los Angeles Kings |
| 203905632-2 | 10/21/13 7:59pm | $25.00 | $48.75 | Pending | 10/21/13 10:35pm NHL Hockey 5 Calgary Flames +195* vs Los Angeles Kings |
| 203905632-3 | 10/21/13 7:59pm | $25.00 | $78.25 | Pending | 10/21/13 10:35pm NHL Hockey 5 Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) -½ +313* vs Los Angeles Kings (1st 60 min) |
| 203905632-4 | 10/21/13 7:59pm | $25.00 | $57.50 | Pending | 10/21/13 10:35pm NHL Hockey 5 Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) +230* vs Los Angeles Kings (1st 60 min) |
0
Posted:
#300
GM4 (Friday) ended up being CAR +196 (4 units) 
GM5 (Saturday) BUF +201 (5 units)
After just looking at the past couple weeks results - I'm pretty sure we should be taking the TOP DOG when the lines OPEN...not close. Much easier to see what team opened the highest vs at close. Often, I find the late game lines changing after the early game(s) start.
Anyone want to back test this for a few seasons?
GM5 (Saturday) BUF +201 (5 units)
After just looking at the past couple weeks results - I'm pretty sure we should be taking the TOP DOG when the lines OPEN...not close. Much easier to see what team opened the highest vs at close. Often, I find the late game lines changing after the early game(s) start.
Anyone want to back test this for a few seasons?
0
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