bD, question for you. On this system do you continue a play over the All-Star break?
example 1 - Team A plays 6 on the road, then break, then start with 9 at home.
example 2 - Team A plays 6 on road, 3 at home, then break, then start after the break with 3 or more at home
When I track the road fade version of this, I'm going to consider only plays that can be fully completed before the break. After the break will be treated just like the start of the year. Was wondering how you were going to handle these situations.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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bD, question for you. On this system do you continue a play over the All-Star break?
example 1 - Team A plays 6 on the road, then break, then start with 9 at home.
example 2 - Team A plays 6 on road, 3 at home, then break, then start after the break with 3 or more at home
When I track the road fade version of this, I'm going to consider only plays that can be fully completed before the break. After the break will be treated just like the start of the year. Was wondering how you were going to handle these situations.
for this season? If not I will get around to it myself and post the record.
Cheers bD for posting plays this season and look forward to next season!
Did anyone ever get a game by game breakdown of this system? Was looking to play maybe only game 4's and game 5's in a two game chase for higher unit amounts. Just need to the numbers to see if it is worth it or not....
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May I ask if anyone has recorded the breakdown of
A W-L
B W-L
C W-L
D W-L
E W-L
for this season? If not I will get around to it myself and post the record.
Cheers bD for posting plays this season and look forward to next season!
Did anyone ever get a game by game breakdown of this system? Was looking to play maybe only game 4's and game 5's in a two game chase for higher unit amounts. Just need to the numbers to see if it is worth it or not....
****Fade a home team immediately after returning from a six or more game road trip chasing for 5 games***
1) The has to be 5 home games in a row to complete the chase.
2) If the team is a dog, take them on the +1.5 RL. If favored, take the ML. I know i'm a year late,but instead of fading a team coming home after being on the road,wouldn't it be better to PLAY THEM at home starting the first game? I took the top home teams over the last few years,and STL and Atl never lost 3 in a row at home last year ,and most of the time they won their first game,which would be game "A" Det and pitts only lost once at home more than 3 games in a row(at home) so out of those 4 teams,you would be 26-0 26-0 25-1 and 25-1. I know a system loss would me minus 9 units if you played it for an A,B,and C chase,but you would still be up 84 units,and at $500 a game,that's a nice profit starting on opening day! Just my thoughts
And in full disclosure and fairness, that record IS accurate minus the Diamondbacks, who've gone 17-2 over the last 2 seasons in this role.
So until I can determine why that happened, they're on the banned list.
There's still plenty of time to make money this season, so try it out and get ready for next season...
GLTA
bD
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Quote Originally Posted by bDnews:
The numbers are high, but the play is easy...
****Fade a home team immediately after returning from a six or more game road trip chasing for 5 games***
1) The has to be 5 home games in a row to complete the chase.
2) If the team is a dog, take them on the +1.5 RL. If favored, take the ML. I know i'm a year late,but instead of fading a team coming home after being on the road,wouldn't it be better to PLAY THEM at home starting the first game? I took the top home teams over the last few years,and STL and Atl never lost 3 in a row at home last year ,and most of the time they won their first game,which would be game "A" Det and pitts only lost once at home more than 3 games in a row(at home) so out of those 4 teams,you would be 26-0 26-0 25-1 and 25-1. I know a system loss would me minus 9 units if you played it for an A,B,and C chase,but you would still be up 84 units,and at $500 a game,that's a nice profit starting on opening day! Just my thoughts
And in full disclosure and fairness, that record IS accurate minus the Diamondbacks, who've gone 17-2 over the last 2 seasons in this role.
So until I can determine why that happened, they're on the banned list.
There's still plenty of time to make money this season, so try it out and get ready for next season...
I tried to PM you but it won't let me,although we are friends. What I meant was when Atl SLT,Det,and Pitts were at home,You start each series and once they win,you are finished with that team and wait until the next team. I only went to 3 games,but if you stretched it out for the 4 game series,you picked up a few extra wins and didn't lose a 9 unit chase. There were a few times they only played a 2 game series for interleague play,but they all won at least one of those games. .STL was 22-1 when they played a team 3 or 4 games on a homestand. Atl was 26-0,never losing 3 in a row to the same team at home.Pitts was 24-1,or 25-0 if you extended it to 4 games vs San Diego.Det was 24-2 or 25-1 if you stretched it out to 4 games against the A's. I only traced those 4 teams,but I only took teams that traditionally are good at home and always win around 85 games. This year it looks like the dodgers,Det,Stl,Wash,Bos,Nyy and tex. I don't like to play that many teams though if I am betting $500 a pop.The good news is you can start this chase system on opening day!
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I tried to PM you but it won't let me,although we are friends. What I meant was when Atl SLT,Det,and Pitts were at home,You start each series and once they win,you are finished with that team and wait until the next team. I only went to 3 games,but if you stretched it out for the 4 game series,you picked up a few extra wins and didn't lose a 9 unit chase. There were a few times they only played a 2 game series for interleague play,but they all won at least one of those games. .STL was 22-1 when they played a team 3 or 4 games on a homestand. Atl was 26-0,never losing 3 in a row to the same team at home.Pitts was 24-1,or 25-0 if you extended it to 4 games vs San Diego.Det was 24-2 or 25-1 if you stretched it out to 4 games against the A's. I only traced those 4 teams,but I only took teams that traditionally are good at home and always win around 85 games. This year it looks like the dodgers,Det,Stl,Wash,Bos,Nyy and tex. I don't like to play that many teams though if I am betting $500 a pop.The good news is you can start this chase system on opening day!
CollectNow, " I took the top home teams over the last few years."
That of course will tend to work as long as the specific home teams keep performing like they have in the past.With the 2014 season right around the corner you can't arbitrarily assume that last years top home teams will continue the status quo.The beauty of bdnews system is you are laying against any team that is entering a 5 game home stand and not relying upon if they are an above or below .500 team at home. I would also give the Astros a few weeks to determine if they have shown any improvement as a team before arbitrarily betting against them. I don't think that they could play any worse than last year imo.
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CollectNow, " I took the top home teams over the last few years."
That of course will tend to work as long as the specific home teams keep performing like they have in the past.With the 2014 season right around the corner you can't arbitrarily assume that last years top home teams will continue the status quo.The beauty of bdnews system is you are laying against any team that is entering a 5 game home stand and not relying upon if they are an above or below .500 team at home. I would also give the Astros a few weeks to determine if they have shown any improvement as a team before arbitrarily betting against them. I don't think that they could play any worse than last year imo.
Looking forward to the plays this year. I'll only be fading teams with a record of under .470, and I'm using labby lines.
I like the idea in applying this to fading road teams Dan, but wouldn't we be better off chasing teams who play on the road? This system has shown that the edge is betting against home teams, so I'm wondering if we would be better off chasing road teams that are coming off a long home stand. I wish I were good at back testing so I could bring more to the table.
BOL
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Looking forward to the plays this year. I'll only be fading teams with a record of under .470, and I'm using labby lines.
I like the idea in applying this to fading road teams Dan, but wouldn't we be better off chasing teams who play on the road? This system has shown that the edge is betting against home teams, so I'm wondering if we would be better off chasing road teams that are coming off a long home stand. I wish I were good at back testing so I could bring more to the table.
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