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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Teams after TNF (long break) NFL

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    Burly
    glefkb01
    nghia1973
    hardyvault
    twodigitz
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    Burly
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 3:06 AM ET #1

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI is an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI is an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

     
    glefkb01
    glefkb01
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 7:55 AM ET #2

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    nghia1973
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 8:43 AM ET #3

    cool
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    cool
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 1:09 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Burly:

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

    SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burly:

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

    SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

     
    Burly
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 1:09 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Burly:

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

    SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

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    Quote Originally Posted by Burly:

    So with TNF every thursday i wondered if there could be a system taken from teams being in this situation

    After backchecking through just over a years worth of data heres what ive come up with:

    If the home team in the TNF game covers the spread and has a better record than team in next game they are 5-0 SU, also a possible reverse play may come into this as well because so far teams who have a worse record after covering are 0-2 SU

    If the home team in the TNF game does not cover the spread in the next game they are 0-4 SU and ATS

    ALSO

    If the team IN THE THF GAME  is the Underdog and loses and are the away team they are 6-0 ATS and SU IN THE NEXT GAME

    upcoming plays for this system are

    CHI WAS an UNDERDOG LOSER AWAY TEAM so they should WIN and COVER

    GB was a FAV HOME TEAM WINNER but they have the same record as SEA so its a no play

    I will try my best to track plays and post them throught the season, also trying to see if O/U can be worked into this as well

     

    SORRY IF THAT CONFUSED ANYONE WROTE IT AFTER A LATE NIGHT

     
    hardyvault
    hardyvault
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    Posted: Sep. 21, 2012 - 6:16 PM ET #6

    clear as mud, you trend finding stud... once again, Burly, down time vs analytical
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    clear as mud, you trend finding stud... once again, Burly, down time vs analytical
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 23, 2012 - 5:34 PM ET #7

    CHI win and cover

    i will continue to post under this thread

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    CHI win and cover

    i will continue to post under this thread

     
    twodigitz
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    Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 6:29 PM ET #8

    Nice find, wish you the best of luck!
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    Nice find, wish you the best of luck!
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 7:03 PM ET #9

    ive put all the information into a spreadsheet and with two years plus the plays so far this season

    ADDING: GB ML

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    ive put all the information into a spreadsheet and with two years plus the plays so far this season

    ADDING: GB ML

     
    vi3t4lif3
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    Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 7:16 PM ET #10

    keep up the good work burly..

    Highly appreciated

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    keep up the good work burly..

    Highly appreciated

     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 12:38 AM ET #11

    wow just wow

    that finish was just bs

    GB should have won that game

     

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    wow just wow

    that finish was just bs

    GB should have won that game

     

     
    hardyvault
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    Posted: Sep. 27, 2012 - 12:53 PM ET #12

    with a two year back check, including games played on Thanksgiving, and looking at TNF teams the following week with ten days to prepare...

    TNF winners the next week are 12-6 SU & 10-7-1 ATS
    TNF winners & favored the next week are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS
    TNF losers the next week are 9-9 SU & 12-5-1 ATS
    TNF losers & favored the next week are 3-0 SU & ATS
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    with a two year back check, including games played on Thanksgiving, and looking at TNF teams the following week with ten days to prepare...

    TNF winners the next week are 12-6 SU & 10-7-1 ATS
    TNF winners & favored the next week are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS
    TNF losers the next week are 9-9 SU & 12-5-1 ATS
    TNF losers & favored the next week are 3-0 SU & ATS
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2012 - 4:21 PM ET #13

    Hardy I've broken it down even further and have three years data almost all entered into a spreadsheet I will post plays for this week before kickoff. I will include ATS or ML and O/U plays

    I have also started looking into teams following off of MNF and it seems like situations are close to the TNF trends but will continue to collect data and double check
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    Hardy I've broken it down even further and have three years data almost all entered into a spreadsheet I will post plays for this week before kickoff. I will include ATS or ML and O/U plays

    I have also started looking into teams following off of MNF and it seems like situations are close to the TNF trends but will continue to collect data and double check
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 2:38 AM ET #14

    If NYG close as a underdog: Play NYG ML or ATS

    Also NYG Over 66% chance of hitting over 47

    CAR Over 75% chance of hitting over 48.5

    Overs are what they are, the % is enough to show profit over long term.

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    If NYG close as a underdog: Play NYG ML or ATS

    Also NYG Over 66% chance of hitting over 47

    CAR Over 75% chance of hitting over 48.5

    Overs are what they are, the % is enough to show profit over long term.

     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 12:27 PM ET #15

    also working on Teams after MNF

    plays for this week:

    GB ML GB Over

    SEA game has no plays

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    also working on Teams after MNF

    plays for this week:

    GB ML GB Over

    SEA game has no plays

     
    Burly
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 12:55 PM ET #16

    systems also says that NO should cover +9 but the Saints are a mess so that play is up to you
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    systems also says that NO should cover +9 but the Saints are a mess so that play is up to you
     
    hardyvault
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2012 - 2:10 PM ET #17

    Glad our intel is lining up. I'm on the G-men & Packers with you, plus the overs...
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    Glad our intel is lining up. I'm on the G-men & Packers with you, plus the overs...
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2012 - 12:41 PM ET #18

    2012 Record (posted plays)

    ML: 2-2 (includes GB MNF "loss")

    ATS: 2-0-1

    O/U: 2-1

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    2012 Record (posted plays)

    ML: 2-2 (includes GB MNF "loss")

    ATS: 2-0-1

    O/U: 2-1

     
    bulichm
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    Posted: Oct. 3, 2012 - 4:17 PM ET #19

    Good info. Thanks for posting.
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    Good info. Thanks for posting.
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2012 - 11:53 PM ET #20

    Play KC ML and ATS and under

    only one previous play for this play so play with some caution

    No previous plays for Cle/Nyg game but would lean CLE +9.5

     

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    Play KC ML and ATS and under

    only one previous play for this play so play with some caution

    No previous plays for Cle/Nyg game but would lean CLE +9.5

     

     
    Rusfan
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2012 - 5:18 AM ET #21

    Hi Burly,

    Can you please specify on the background for the KC play today?

    Thank you,

    Appreciate your work

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    Hi Burly,

    Can you please specify on the background for the KC play today?

    Thank you,

    Appreciate your work

     
    Burly
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2012 - 1:02 PM ET #22

    all plays depend on TNF outcome and if TNF team is ud or fav in second game
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    all plays depend on TNF outcome and if TNF team is ud or fav in second game
     
    MoneyHugger
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2012 - 4:57 PM ET #23

    KC ATS!!!
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    KC ATS!!!
     
    Burly
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    Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 2:09 AM ET #24

    2012 Record (posted plays)

    ML: 2-3 (includes GB MNF "loss")

    ATS: 3-0-1

    O/U: 3-1

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    2012 Record (posted plays)

    ML: 2-3 (includes GB MNF "loss")

    ATS: 3-0-1

    O/U: 3-1

     
     
    Burly
    Burly
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 650
    Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 3:06 AM ET #25

    For week 6

    STL game has no plays with high %

    If ARI closes as FAV: Play ARI ML and BUF ATS and over

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    For week 6

    STL game has no plays with high %

    If ARI closes as FAV: Play ARI ML and BUF ATS and over

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