- I have used a formula to create a point spread using Yards per Play (YPP). I waited until after week 7 in order for each team's stats to develop. The last 2 weeks I practiced. I have three categories based on the differential between the point spread I came up with and the actual line (Bovada)
The results this year so far :
2 point differential:
3 - 5
4 point differential
6 - 2
7 point differential
5 - 1
Now I am ready to post my alternate point spreads online. The line goes by the visiting teams. I understand we use different sports books. What may be a 2 point differential with Bovada might be a 4 point differential with Pinnacle. These are the spreads I came up with. Use however you like
Week 10
Bal -4.5
Atl +0.5
NO +1.5
Jax +3.5
Cle -4.5
Buf -10
Det +3
TB -6
Car +5
Min +1
Phi -1.5
Sea pk
KC +7
LAR -1
I use Bovada. For me, 13 of this weeks 14 games were at least 2 points away and qualified. All were Underdogs so I am a bit concerned but not too much.
When betting -110 I use this betting progression chase a profit.
Win 2 out of 6
1x 2x 4x 6x 8x 12x
Watch from the side or jump in. Good Luck
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Part I
SD and LAD Parlay- flopped
Part II
NHL Small Underdogs - Small Profit
Part III
MLB Playoffs Home Underdogs- Undefeated
Part IV
NFL Yards per Play
- I have used a formula to create a point spread using Yards per Play (YPP). I waited until after week 7 in order for each team's stats to develop. The last 2 weeks I practiced. I have three categories based on the differential between the point spread I came up with and the actual line (Bovada)
The results this year so far :
2 point differential:
3 - 5
4 point differential
6 - 2
7 point differential
5 - 1
Now I am ready to post my alternate point spreads online. The line goes by the visiting teams. I understand we use different sports books. What may be a 2 point differential with Bovada might be a 4 point differential with Pinnacle. These are the spreads I came up with. Use however you like
Week 10
Bal -4.5
Atl +0.5
NO +1.5
Jax +3.5
Cle -4.5
Buf -10
Det +3
TB -6
Car +5
Min +1
Phi -1.5
Sea pk
KC +7
LAR -1
I use Bovada. For me, 13 of this weeks 14 games were at least 2 points away and qualified. All were Underdogs so I am a bit concerned but not too much.
When betting -110 I use this betting progression chase a profit.
I lost those two as well. Dallas was coming off a bad loss and really pummeled Atlanta. The system is showing Atlanta as a pick this week. Maybe it's their turn to come out of the locker ready to win.
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@jwgold
I lost those two as well. Dallas was coming off a bad loss and really pummeled Atlanta. The system is showing Atlanta as a pick this week. Maybe it's their turn to come out of the locker ready to win.
Not as many plays this week. Seven of the projections are within 2 points of the line. Waiting on the line for the Pittsburgh game. Just read they could be missing at least seven starters due to CoVid.
Week 11
Less than 2 pt diff
Buf -7
GB -1.5
Mia -1.5
NO +3
Wsh +2.5
SF -6
Ari -4
2 pt diff
Bal -3 Chi +7 (bought 0.5 pt)
Cin +1 LV +1
4 pt diff
NE -2 Atl +7
Hou +4 Hou +10.5
Dal -4 Dal +3
NYG +5 NYG +11
7 pt diff
Det +2.5 Det +10
Waiting on :
Pit +4
*the system doesn't respect KC. Their defensive YPP allowed is second worst at 6.2. However, they could be a classic veteran team starting to get into gear for the second half of the season. I placed my bet on Dallas with 3 points and hoping for bad weather to keep the game close.
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Not as many plays this week. Seven of the projections are within 2 points of the line. Waiting on the line for the Pittsburgh game. Just read they could be missing at least seven starters due to CoVid.
Week 11
Less than 2 pt diff
Buf -7
GB -1.5
Mia -1.5
NO +3
Wsh +2.5
SF -6
Ari -4
2 pt diff
Bal -3 Chi +7 (bought 0.5 pt)
Cin +1 LV +1
4 pt diff
NE -2 Atl +7
Hou +4 Hou +10.5
Dal -4 Dal +3
NYG +5 NYG +11
7 pt diff
Det +2.5 Det +10
Waiting on :
Pit +4
*the system doesn't respect KC. Their defensive YPP allowed is second worst at 6.2. However, they could be a classic veteran team starting to get into gear for the second half of the season. I placed my bet on Dallas with 3 points and hoping for bad weather to keep the game close.
The line for the Pit game is up and is Pit +5.5. Therefore eight games using the forrmula are within 2 pts of the line I developed. Seven are not and, in my opinion, worth a wager.
Good Luck if you are following
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The line for the Pit game is up and is Pit +5.5. Therefore eight games using the forrmula are within 2 pts of the line I developed. Seven are not and, in my opinion, worth a wager.
Not a great week, 3 - 4 overall. Atl is garbage and Dal is all over the place with their final scores. Still 6 weeks to go, not worried at all. Week 12 will be up Wednesday Evening.
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Week 11
2 pt diff
1 - 1
4 pt diff
1 - 3
7 pt diff
1 - 0
Overall :
2 pt diff
4 - 3
4 pt diff
6 - 4
7 pt diff
1 - 2
Not a great week, 3 - 4 overall. Atl is garbage and Dal is all over the place with their final scores. Still 6 weeks to go, not worried at all. Week 12 will be up Wednesday Evening.
Seven games within 2 points of the line, eight were not. I am posting them all because the lines have moved a bit since yesterday and other books are different from mine. Some of you might have more than 8 games, some less. The column on the left is the line I developed, on the right is the wager I placed. Also this week is the first favorite. I have Car winning by 4 and the line has them winning by one. This came up more in seasons past. Good Luck
Week 12
Under 2 pts
Chi -2.5
Buf -7.5
Pit +5
TB -4.5
Atl +1
LAC -2.5
Min +3
2 - 3.5 pt diff
Car -4 Car -1
Ten +3.5 Ten +7
Phi pk NYG +3.5
LAR -2 LAR +1
Cle pk Cle+3.5
Sea -1.5 Sea +1
4 - 6.5 pt diff
LV -2.5 LV +8
NYJ -1.5 NYJ +3
7 pt + diff
no plays this week
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Week 12
Seven games within 2 points of the line, eight were not. I am posting them all because the lines have moved a bit since yesterday and other books are different from mine. Some of you might have more than 8 games, some less. The column on the left is the line I developed, on the right is the wager I placed. Also this week is the first favorite. I have Car winning by 4 and the line has them winning by one. This came up more in seasons past. Good Luck
I was just determining the lines for the week using the Yards per Play (YPP) System. I was thinking, why am I holding out on the formula? That is not what this forum is about. One thing about the spreadsheets and the NHL 2 Team Road Parlay is that everyone knows how to calculate the systems involved. So here it is:
YPP
1) Go to TeamRankings (or a similar site) and take the total for each teams offensive YPP and defensive YPP allowed. The difference between the two figures is the Net.
2) To calculate each team's point spread value, divide the Net YPP by 0.20. Some players prefer dividing by 0.15. I haven't tested it out because 0.20 has given me a profit every season.
3) Merge each team's point spread value together to determine the projected point spread for the game.
Here are two examples using games from this week :
Dal @ NO
Dal YPP
For : 6.2
Against: 5.9
Net YPP = 0.3
0.3 ÷ 0.2 = 1.5
Because the Offensive number (6.2) is greater than the defensive number (5.9), the point spread value for Dal is -1.5.
NO YPP
For : 5.0
Against: 5.4
Net YPP = -0.4
-0.4 ÷ 0.2 = -2
Because the Offensive number (5.0) is less than the defensive number (5.4), the point spread value for NO is +2.
Merging the values for both teams results in a line of Dal -3.5.
The current line is Dal -4.5
TB @ Atl
TB
Off YPP : 6.1
Def YPP : 5.2
Point Spread Value : -4.5
Atl
Off YPP : 5.1
Def YPP : 5.4
Point Spread Value: +2
Line for the Game :
TB -6.5
Current Line :
TB -11
I would skip the Dal game because there is only a 1 point differential. The TB line is 4.5 points away from the line I came up with so I would take Atl +11.
I will be back Thursday Morning with this weeks projections.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
I was just determining the lines for the week using the Yards per Play (YPP) System. I was thinking, why am I holding out on the formula? That is not what this forum is about. One thing about the spreadsheets and the NHL 2 Team Road Parlay is that everyone knows how to calculate the systems involved. So here it is:
YPP
1) Go to TeamRankings (or a similar site) and take the total for each teams offensive YPP and defensive YPP allowed. The difference between the two figures is the Net.
2) To calculate each team's point spread value, divide the Net YPP by 0.20. Some players prefer dividing by 0.15. I haven't tested it out because 0.20 has given me a profit every season.
3) Merge each team's point spread value together to determine the projected point spread for the game.
Here are two examples using games from this week :
Dal @ NO
Dal YPP
For : 6.2
Against: 5.9
Net YPP = 0.3
0.3 ÷ 0.2 = 1.5
Because the Offensive number (6.2) is greater than the defensive number (5.9), the point spread value for Dal is -1.5.
NO YPP
For : 5.0
Against: 5.4
Net YPP = -0.4
-0.4 ÷ 0.2 = -2
Because the Offensive number (5.0) is less than the defensive number (5.4), the point spread value for NO is +2.
Merging the values for both teams results in a line of Dal -3.5.
The current line is Dal -4.5
TB @ Atl
TB
Off YPP : 6.1
Def YPP : 5.2
Point Spread Value : -4.5
Atl
Off YPP : 5.1
Def YPP : 5.4
Point Spread Value: +2
Line for the Game :
TB -6.5
Current Line :
TB -11
I would skip the Dal game because there is only a 1 point differential. The TB line is 4.5 points away from the line I came up with so I would take Atl +11.
I will be back Thursday Morning with this weeks projections.
I always like to read your stuff. Seems like this system should get stronger as the year goes on. Does it and how long have you used the system. Thanks for sharing.
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@Surfer2
I always like to read your stuff. Seems like this system should get stronger as the year goes on. Does it and how long have you used the system. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for the compliment. I wait until the season is half- way through before I begin using the YPP. The stats need to accumulate. One drawback is there is no difference between home and road games. I first used the system in 2019. It went 6 - 6 in week 4, right after I discovered it. Then I have a record of it going 11 - 4. I recall condensing the 2, 4, and 7 point differentials into one final record to save space. Shouldn't have done that. At the beginning of this thread, I post the stats for practice weeks 8 and 9. I imagine as the season goes on, YPP will be more accurate. Also, the addition of week 17 means more money opportunities for gamblers as well as owners (insert joke here)
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@jwgold
Thanks for the compliment. I wait until the season is half- way through before I begin using the YPP. The stats need to accumulate. One drawback is there is no difference between home and road games. I first used the system in 2019. It went 6 - 6 in week 4, right after I discovered it. Then I have a record of it going 11 - 4. I recall condensing the 2, 4, and 7 point differentials into one final record to save space. Shouldn't have done that. At the beginning of this thread, I post the stats for practice weeks 8 and 9. I imagine as the season goes on, YPP will be more accurate. Also, the addition of week 17 means more money opportunities for gamblers as well as owners (insert joke here)
Column on the left is the line I came up with, column on the right is the line at Bovada
Less than 2 pt diff (no bet)
Dal -3.5 Dal -4.5
Phi -6 Phi -7
SF -2.5 SF -3
NE +3.5 NE +2.5
2 pt diff
Ari -5 Chi +8
Min -4 Det +7
Ind -6 Hou +9
Wsh +6.5 LV -2.5
Bal -1.5 Pit +4.5
4 pt diff
TB -6.5 Atl +11
LAC -1 LAC +3
Jax +6.5 Jax +13
7 pt diff
NYG -2.5 NYG +4.5
Den -1 Den +10
A couple of these - Chi, Atl, NYG - I don't even want to know about until the final score. However, everyone in the NFL is solid. The players have been scouted, analyzed, and they live football year round. They are all Pro's. The Den pick intrigues me. Getting 10 points in the division is a lot of points regardless of the match-up. I am hoping for sloppy weather in KC, as bad weather tends to help underdogs.
Good Luck
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Week 13
Column on the left is the line I came up with, column on the right is the line at Bovada
Less than 2 pt diff (no bet)
Dal -3.5 Dal -4.5
Phi -6 Phi -7
SF -2.5 SF -3
NE +3.5 NE +2.5
2 pt diff
Ari -5 Chi +8
Min -4 Det +7
Ind -6 Hou +9
Wsh +6.5 LV -2.5
Bal -1.5 Pit +4.5
4 pt diff
TB -6.5 Atl +11
LAC -1 LAC +3
Jax +6.5 Jax +13
7 pt diff
NYG -2.5 NYG +4.5
Den -1 Den +10
A couple of these - Chi, Atl, NYG - I don't even want to know about until the final score. However, everyone in the NFL is solid. The players have been scouted, analyzed, and they live football year round. They are all Pro's. The Den pick intrigues me. Getting 10 points in the division is a lot of points regardless of the match-up. I am hoping for sloppy weather in KC, as bad weather tends to help underdogs.
I mentioned sloppy weather can be a factor (I am sure most of you knew already). The forecast for KC looks alright, however, Chicago is predicted to be in the 40's with rain and 15 - 20mph winds. Used to be 15mph was the magic number to disrupt the kicking and passing game. Nowadays, that has changed a bit but I predict a lot of rushing attempts. Chi is averaging only 16.3 points per game, Ari has been allowing 18.4. The under is 43, might be worth a look.
Cheers
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***Special Update***
I mentioned sloppy weather can be a factor (I am sure most of you knew already). The forecast for KC looks alright, however, Chicago is predicted to be in the 40's with rain and 15 - 20mph winds. Used to be 15mph was the magic number to disrupt the kicking and passing game. Nowadays, that has changed a bit but I predict a lot of rushing attempts. Chi is averaging only 16.3 points per game, Ari has been allowing 18.4. The under is 43, might be worth a look.
I am not sure how to account for strength of schedule. Admittedly, the system is not very sophisticated. I begin after week 8 in order to have a decent amount of stats to work with. I have considered incorporating last year's stats but in the NFL, teams can change quickly. For example, last year the LAR averaged 5.5 YPP on offense. In the offseason they added a new QB. This year their offense is averaging 6.2 YPP. They are different. I am open to suggestions if you or anyone else has any
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@BlueStar57
I am not sure how to account for strength of schedule. Admittedly, the system is not very sophisticated. I begin after week 8 in order to have a decent amount of stats to work with. I have considered incorporating last year's stats but in the NFL, teams can change quickly. For example, last year the LAR averaged 5.5 YPP on offense. In the offseason they added a new QB. This year their offense is averaging 6.2 YPP. They are different. I am open to suggestions if you or anyone else has any
Fck - I was looking for an emoji with a paper bag over its head
This system has done well. Anyway, last week's results :
2 pt diff
2 - 2
4 pt diff
1 - 3
7 pt diff
0 - 2
Overall:
2 pt diff
11 - 15
4 pt diff
13 - 10
7 pt diff
3 - 7
I am going to post the picks until the season concludes. I found the YPP system in an article in Medium around five years ago. The author had success. He found his way to a morning radio show in Colorado where he was picking games. He also has a following on Twitter. I recently searched the web looking for the link so I could post it to no avail. I still have confidence in it. Thanks to the LAR last night for salvaging a victory.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Fck - I was looking for an emoji with a paper bag over its head
This system has done well. Anyway, last week's results :
2 pt diff
2 - 2
4 pt diff
1 - 3
7 pt diff
0 - 2
Overall:
2 pt diff
11 - 15
4 pt diff
13 - 10
7 pt diff
3 - 7
I am going to post the picks until the season concludes. I found the YPP system in an article in Medium around five years ago. The author had success. He found his way to a morning radio show in Colorado where he was picking games. He also has a following on Twitter. I recently searched the web looking for the link so I could post it to no avail. I still have confidence in it. Thanks to the LAR last night for salvaging a victory.
CoVid is hitting the NFL. Something like every team except for six have at least one player on the CoVid List. Wsh and LAR have at least a dozen. All of us experts are all aware of taking note of significant injuries. This situation is similar.
The YPP System relies on every team playing consistently. With different players playing this week and the fact that the system is sucking it up a bit, I have decided to take a week off.
Even if the system were up, I would have been skeptical. Take for example Cle. I would have come up with a betting line for them but their Starting QB won't be playing this week.
If you bet on other sports, I have noticed that Cal in the NHL and Chi in the NBA have had games postponed, so heads up brothas.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
CoVid is hitting the NFL. Something like every team except for six have at least one player on the CoVid List. Wsh and LAR have at least a dozen. All of us experts are all aware of taking note of significant injuries. This situation is similar.
The YPP System relies on every team playing consistently. With different players playing this week and the fact that the system is sucking it up a bit, I have decided to take a week off.
Even if the system were up, I would have been skeptical. Take for example Cle. I would have come up with a betting line for them but their Starting QB won't be playing this week.
If you bet on other sports, I have noticed that Cal in the NHL and Chi in the NBA have had games postponed, so heads up brothas.
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