Some More MLB Betting Systems

I found these thanks to T5A0A7 over at the foxdenforum and so maybe I'd thought these might help some who were looking some the bookie's $$$ in the baseball season. I don't have any backtested results but if anyone can give some insight on them - that'd be great. Well goodluck



9dropmb- (play every home team to win 1 game in every home series)

357vegas- (Play the game with the largest ERA differential and the better era playing at home. At least 2.00 point difference and with a era of less than 4.00.
using jimfeist.com)

BDNews Chase- (A.-Play any road favorite in their next four games after losing their previous two as a road favorite. B- Play against any road dog in their four games after winning the previous two as a road dog.)

SSI Totals Chase- (Wait for any team to play 5 overs or unders in a row, then begin a 6 game chase going against the trend)

JKAUL Dog Series Chase- (Play team in series where team in series will always be a dog-i think that's how i interpret it)

AZMAT MLB Dog System - (play on dog 100 to 150 no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league)

AZMAT Chase #2 - (using filter, chase -1.5 runline for away team in every series using 1-2-4 format:

game 1 - wager 1 unit
if loss, game 2 - wager 2 units
if loss, game 3 - wager 4 units

filter is as follows: chase only away teams ranked in top 20 for away records and drop bottom 10 teams )



BIGDADI The Logical Approach.com/teamrankings.com- (USE
RUN FOR - RUN AGAINST = X COMPARE
ROAD TEAM's X with HOME TEAMS's X
IF one side is +1.5 better, it is a play)

XANBOO SYSTEM- (system xanboo I & II- I-home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater II-and stats after producing a win shows the teams wins the next game also being favorite at home)

SUREBET's 60/60 CHASE ( play on home teams to win 1 game in home series where they have atleast 60% win percentage and FADE road teams that have a road losing % of atleast 60% to lose 1 game in road series)

KCFAN +1.5 CHASE- (MLB System



1. We bet on series where the team was swept in the previous three or four game series by the same team. "Swept" means that the team didn't win any games against the opponent during the series. So basically we are betting that the team won't get swept again.

Example: The Boston Red Sox lost all three games in a three game series against the New York Yankees. So we will bet the Red Sox in the next series they play against the New York Yankees.

2. So during the season, please note all the three or four series sweeps and look ahead in the schedule and note the next time the two same teams play. Recommended site for schedule is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/standings/.

3. We will buy one and a half runs when our team in the underdog and we will bet the money line when our team is the favorite.

4. Our goal is to win one out of the three games in each series. After the win we will go on to the next series. We will be using a three game progressive betting scheme. We will bet game one for $xxx profit. If we lose game one, we double up on game two to win our game one losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game two, we double up on game three to win our game one and two losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game three then it is considered a lost.

5. We never bet on a team when their best hitter or pitcher is injured. We never bet in September, because teams that are out of the playoff chase do not give 100% effort. Recommended site for injury reports is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/offshore/.

6. Even though the probability of winning is very high that does not mean losing is impossible. Losses are very rare, but still possible. Please have patience and restrain when using the system.)



htdykid Chase- (First Game Fave Loser RL Chase)

I found these thanks to T5A0A7 over at the foxdenforum and so maybe I'd thought these might help some who were looking some the bookie's $$$ in the baseball season. I don't have any backtested results but if anyone can give some insight on them - that'd be great. Well goodluck

ZAC's OLD DOG SYSTEM- (1- Dog pitcher must have lower ERA.

2 - Do not bet games when dog’s line is below +110 or favorite’s is equal to or above -200.

3 - Both pitchers must have 40IP.

4 - The favorite pitcher's ERA must not be less than 4.00.

5 - The dog pitcher’s ERA should not be less than 3.00 but I played it at less than 3.00 last year without any problem.

I found playing Dog pitchers in the 3.00 to 3.99 range to be the most profitable and there were stats posted that supported that.)


Oh yeah, this little piggy too
Anyone else have anything out there?

Big ups to HoustanFan for posting this one.

Hmmm... Looks good

Simple Home Chase

Developed by Hookem22 - goes like this:

The idea is to chase a team doing well at home to win one game on a homestand, when they are playing a team playing poorly at the time

1. Home Team is .500 or above at home and at least 5-5 their last 10 games.
2. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
3. Home team loses the first game or the series - this removes the possibility of having to chase 3 games.
4. Play until home team wins one game.
5. All plays are ML.

This year I will not play 4 game sets.

Generally speaking you get 3-4 sets to chase per series.

This was very profitable last year, especially before the all-star break.

I'll start this the first of May, so as to get good reliable stats.

Big ups to HoustanFan for posting this one.

Hmmm... Looks good

Oh yeah - found some more. I did cap some of these but I don't remember what the results were last year.

the best way to do it is take your bullpen and starter ERA and the teams batting average.   Take the lowest ERA of the 2 and the batting average and compare them.  Pick the team that has the lowest ERA and the higest batting average.  Out of all the teams that qualify pick up to 3 dogs.  If no dog's  qualify then pass the card and move to the next day. 

 

When betting totals you want to take the league average of ERA and batting average then look for teams that have an ERA higher than the average and above average batting.  If two of these teams are playing each other take the over.  To pick the under just do the opposite.  basically what you want is good batting and poor pitching for overs, bad batting and good pitching for unders.

 

1) Look at the money won.  A good way to find some games is to look at how much the team has won for the bettors.  You want to look at teams that have made money against teams that have lost money.   You can cross out 2 teams that are in the negative and stick with teams that have a positive against a negative. 

 

2) Pick out some teams and stick with them all season.  This is probably the most effective strategy.  When you only bet on 5 or 6 teams you get a good feel of the teams and know when to bet or not bet them.  What I usually do is wait about a month to 2 months into the season and pick teams that are .400-.500 (40% to 50% winning average).  These teams have great value through out the season.  They won't win every game but you'll get them at big prices when you decided to bet them. 

 

 

 

 

 

“Tired Road Teams”

A strong system that had results as high as 70% several years back.

- Play against a road team in game #1 of a series if its their 3rd or 4th straight road series if they were swept in the prior series.



“Double – Double Digit Games”

- Play the home team in the 3rd or 4th game of the series if they scored double-digits in the first 2 games of the series. Must be a non-divisional game.

 

 

“Dogs off a 1-Run Loss”

- As simple as they get. Historical numbers seem to be just above 50% but with dogs, that is a nice profit. Doesn’t matter if they are at home or away: Play a dog +100 to +150 if they are off a 1-run loss to the same team in the previous game.



“Home Team Off a Win vs. Road Team Off a Loss”

- Bet a home dog or favorite up to –130 that is coming off a SU win AND Series Win if they scored 5+ runs in the previous game versus a road team off a SU loss AND series loss. Obviously, game # 1 of a series.



“Play the Bad Team at Home”

- Play any team at home that are 10 games or more below .500 in the first game of the series if they have a .500+ home record as long as the road team has not won more than 5 of their last 10 games.

 

“Go Against a Road Team After 2 Straight Shutout Wins”

- For whatever reason, the numbers are heavily on the home sides playing against road teams that have just recorded 2 straight shutout wins.



“April American League System”

- Play any American League road team who’s bullpen has a combined ERA of 3.75 or lower that’s facing an opponent with a .260 or worse team batting average in April.



“Late Season Streaky Trend”

- September only: Bet on teams that have won 6 or more of their last 10 versus teams that have won 5 or less in their last 10.


__________________________________________________

___

DOG SYSTEMS:


“Home Dog #1”
This is a simple approach that comes up 20-30 times per year:

- Must be Division rivalry game: Play home dog that won 6 or more of the last 10 and has a positive home record (at least 2 more wins than losses at home)


“Home Dog #2”

A variation of the above with more emphasis on poorer road teams. Rare with only a dozen or so plays per season:

- Must be Division rivalry game: Home Dog with a home record 55%+ and winners of 6 of the last 10 vs. team with a 50% or less overall road record.


“Home Dog #3”

- Must be Division rivalry game. Play a home dog coming off a loss and winners of no more than 5 of their last 10 games against a road team that is under 40% on the road during the season.


“Road Dog #1”

- Play dogs of +135 or higher who are .500+ road teams and won 6 or more of their last 10 games versus home team that is under 60% at home and won 4 or less games in their last 10 (NO Interleague!!)


“Road Dog #2”

- Play road dog with road winning percentage 47%+ and winners of 12+ of last 20 versus home team with home winning percentage under 53% (no divisional games and no first games of a series).

__________________________________________________ ___

PLAYING FAVORITES:


"Home Favorite #1"

- Play a home favorite in Game # 3 of a series if they lost Game # 2 of the series as –200 or higher favorites (sweet revenge situation). Must be non-divisional game. (Only high juice play in the systems)


"Home favorite #2"

- Play home favorites between –110 to –130 coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs. They must be winners of 6+ in their last 10 AND 3+ of their last 7 home games. Road team must be winners of only 5 or less in their last 10.


"Road Favorite #1"

Probably one of the most complicated ones I ran across but as the others, seems to utilize current form with overall record. Follow this:

-Non-divisional game
-Road favorite of –130 or less!!!
-.500+ overall road record
-5 wins in last 10 games
-coming off a loss to same team
-Home team must home winning percentage under 60%
-Home team not have more than 5 wins in last 10 games.


"Road Favorite #2"

- First game of a series in which the home team is coming off the road. Road team must be favorite and winners of 6+ of their last 10. Home team winners of only 7 or less home games of their last 15; and 3 or less of their last 5 home games.


__________________________________________________ ___

INTERLEAGUE –


"Interleague #1"

- Play a road favorite of –130 or greater coming off a loss to the same team (not the first game of a series). Road team averaging 4.5+ runs per game last 5. Home team not scoring 7 or more runs previous game.


"Interleague #2"

- Play an American League home favorite of –130 or greater in the first game of a series versus a National League team coming off a series loss and have won only 5 or less of their last 10.

That's the one I was talking about.  It was Houstonfan, not hookem22.

It is very good.

 MontanaMax:One thing for sure, you have covered every possible scenario known in MLB "system" play! very thorough..Unfortunately they do not pertain to all teams. and theirs know way of understanding who these teams are till the end of the year..injuries during a series, pitching, middle relieve, and closers, are key match-up ingredients, that are overlooked.. If you look at last years Tigers, Angels, and Dodgers, you will find well below 50% win ratio on discipline system play..Incorperating situational play with a systematic match-up of handicapping, which are numerous in detail; should be taken into consideration, always....To have a strict diet of system play alone, just does not work, as you will find out at the end of the year with your research. Handicapping formula's will always 'over power' systems in successful MLB wins!    very good thead, bol for the upcoming O9 season

Yes please explain number three. Does it mean you wait for the first game of a three game series to be lost and then play the next two? Or because it is three game sets only does he mean you would only would be  chasing  twice if the team lost the first game of the series. Bottom line do we play the first game of the three game series?? Thanks a bunch. I looked at some back tracking for last year and this looks solid. I am very quick with numbers and charts to verify this system if you can clairify for me. I can use MLB standings from espn that breaks down daily records with splits on Home and Road records.   

At least it's not the "L" word

Great job posting all these systems. Hopefully, someone who has had experience with baseball can post here any variation of these they are using so some systems can be tracked.

BOL

Good lookin out sports_Network . The 1st post was put out on the foxdenforum by some reputable cappers who did pretty good with these systems. Exactly how good... I don't remember. I agree with what your saying about the capping style and stuff. That's where our stomachs' come into play. I trust mine - do you tust yours? "Hell... That's where I put on my food" a wise man once said. By the end of the year I followed some other's advise and cooled down with wagering on MLB cause by then the lines were out of hand beginning at mid to late August. Just in time for theNFL. But for those who had the marbles out there good job on following Mil when CC the fat man pitched with a -250 MLand greater. Picking your spots in MLB is very keen to beating the books. I even remember times last year when the A's, Mariners, Braves, and uhh... oh yeah Wash went on winning streaks killing the favs. That's baseball for you and with 160 some odd games in a 6 month span for each team, this gives those degenerates out there plenty of action to "double up a nick with a dime then to f*ck that tripple the nick and put 14.99 on that"

If anyone can maybe backtrack any of these for some past results, I'm sure the community would appreciate it. And let's not forget those +1.5 / lines out there are valuable even with the NHL. They saved my butt many times.

Thanks guys, this is all for you. "Now let's go out there and be somebody"

 I found these little piggies out an about. Hmmm... Could they past the smell test? Yeah I know... The units??? I have no idea how they were obtained.


(#GR1106) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite off a 5+ run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 34-15 +1155 units

(#GR1206) "Play On" any MLB Favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 41-24 +815 units

(#GR2806) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10+ hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 157-116 +2760 units

(#GR3206) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a loss in which they had +10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 79-33 +2225 units

(#GR4606) "Play On" any MLB favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 89-41 +3085 units

(#GR4906) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 82-77 +3210 units

(#GR10706) "Play On" any MLB +140 or better Underdog whose opponent is off a win in which they had 10+ hits and scored at least 5 runs. 265-400 +4635 units

(GR#806) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is coming in off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 44-19 +1080 units

(GR#906) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more that is off a loss in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and scored 5 or more runs. 74-31 +1760 units

(GR#1006) "Play Against" any MLB Home Underdog off a win in which they had a winning margin of at least 5 runs and had 10 or more hits. 51-94 +2375 units

(GR#1406) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite of -140 or more off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 10+ hits and scored 4 or less runs. 19-6 +985 units

(GR#1606) "Play Against" any MLB -140 or more favorite off a 1 run loss in a game in which they had 5 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 47-37 +1330 units

(GR#2706) "Play Against" any MLB Favorite off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 258-191 +1035 units

(GR#606) "Play On" any MLB Home Underdog in a division rivalry game with a line that is less than 200 and have won at least 6 of their last 10 games with a home win percentage of 55%+ and facing an opponent that has less than a 50% win percentage on the road. 40-20 +2685 units

(GR#3406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a loss in which they had 10 or more hits and left 10+ runners on base. 172-210 +2410 units

(GR#4706) "Play On" any MLB -140 or more Favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 10 runners on base. 64-32 +920 units

(GR#6406) "Play On" any MLB Underdog off a 1-run win in which they had 10+ hits and left at least 5 runners on base. 168-209 +1025 units

i

How did this end up last year ? 

i am assuming all of the "GR" systems are sportsdatabase queries..so +2685 units is actually plus $2685  ..based on $100 wagers..which is +26.85 units....still good tho...thanks

Hey Max.. got some time at work this morning,,.so I will try querying each of those gr systema above... see if any are winners..the first one is not

(#GR1106) "Play On" any MLB Home Favorite off a 5+ run loss in a game in which they had at least 10 hits. 34-15 +1155 units

site=home and line < -105 and p:points<po:points and p:hits>=10 and op:runs>=p:runs+5

Record W-L (marg, % win)	$ On	$ Against	Over/Under O-U-P (marg, % over)	$ Over	$ Under	season
						2009
						2008
						2007
						2006
						2005
						2004

pasting stuff does not work on here for some reason ..and also you can't edit ... anyway ..thst system above was not profitable...will test each one..if i find one that is profitable will post the results

I have checked 5 or 6 of these on sportsdatabase so far,,and according to my queries none of these results are accurate or consistently profitable.. so i won't quert any more..I would welcome someone to try a few themselves though.. its possible my queries were off..