Situational Handicapping

"(v)                4/5 – All teams will at some point be faced with a situation where they have to play 4 games in 5 nights. As an example I always like fading a team who have to play their 4^th game against an uptempo, offensive minded team. I have a calendar in my room where I have marked down every single situation where a team has to play their 4^th game in 5 nights, fairly simply thing to do by having a look at the NBA schedule but a potential valuable one."

Also, on the flip side, some teams don't perform as well when having 3 days off.

Good post for discussion  during the break.

Quote Originally Posted by Islandstyle:

 and the last one is the drunk stooper bet!!

 

 

I keep losing on that one. 

Great writeup Rod

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Agree 100%. I've only been betting the NBA two years and have figured out that almost of all the actual handicapping that will give you the best results is situational handicapping, of course with smaller elements of the other factors you mentioned added in.

Probably the most important thing - IMO anyway - that anybody looking to start betting on the NBA is to not place a majority of weight on the individual matchups and more importantly stats when looking at a game and capping it, but to try to figure out when and which team will show up on a particular night in a particular matchup. I think if/when you figure this out you will have a lot of success betting in this league.


Great post Rod.

Spot on Andy, although I have outlined the 3 methods of capping I think the overriding method is situational. Applying both technical and fundamental in isolation is dangerous, each trend or statistic still needs to be assessed under the particular situation of the game IMO.

Quote Originally Posted by chilitokid:

Nice write up rod_steel

I'm not sure if you numbered the categories by importance because I think 1 and 3 are of equal value and 2 is the lesser of all the categories listed.

Another situation I feel that should be included in Method #3 is a team on a B2B where the 2nd game is in Denver and Denver is not on a B2B.

Again, nice write up.

I certainly didn't list the examples in order of importance, also there are so many examples out there. You can be broad like the ones I listed above or be specific like the Denver example you provided which is a very good one. A B2b game in Pepsi Center in altitude against a uptempo offense is always tough on the opponent.

Where did I say it was easy

Just throwing it out there in terms of this is another way to look at capping a NBA game.