Situational Handicapping

Question

I had a bit of spare time given the current lull in the NBA schedule with it being the All star weekend so I thought of jotting down some points around the concept of “situational handicapping.” It’s a method I swear when betting on the NBA and if used correctly it is an extremely powerful tool.

You can pretty much apply this to any professional sport however in my experience it has worked particularly well in the NBA. This thread is not an attempt to insult anyone’s intelligence because I’m sure the majority of the people here are fully aware of the concept, just thought it may be useful for anyone who is just starting out in NBA betting.

There are essentially 3 main methods to cap a NBA game.

Technical handicapping – you look for certain trends or statistics which you feel provides one team with a technical advantage over the other. An example was just a couple of nights ago in a game between the Raptors and the Spurs. The play was on the Raptors because they had a technical advantage over the Spurs on that particular night given how poorly the Spurs have fared this season on the back to back situation, at that point they were 2-7 ATS in that scenario.

Fundamental handicapping – perhaps the easiest and most basic method whereby you use basic statistics that you can get from a boxscore. Things like team shooting %’s, defensive statistics, player turnover ratios, team 3 point shooting made and conceded etc The over in the Warriors v Knicks game a few nights ago was set at 231.5. That itself is enough for many to be scared away from betting the over, however always ask yourself with these kinds of totals why has it been set so high? A quick look at each of the team’s offense and defense numbers and where they ranked in the NBA under those categories would have given you the reason.

Situational handicapping - this is the one I wanted to go into a bit more detail in below.

rod_steel · Answer

I had a bit of spare time given the current lull in the NBA schedule with it being the All star weekend so I thought of jotting down some points around the concept of “situational handicapping.” It’s a method I swear when betting on the NBA and if used correctly it is an extremely powerful tool.

You can pretty much apply this to any professional sport however in my experience it has worked particularly well in the NBA. This thread is not an attempt to insult anyone’s intelligence because I’m sure the majority of the people here are fully aware of the concept, just thought it may be useful for anyone who is just starting out in NBA betting.

There are essentially 3 main methods to cap a NBA game.

Technical handicapping – you look for certain trends or statistics which you feel provides one team with a technical advantage over the other. An example was just a couple of nights ago in a game between the Raptors and the Spurs. The play was on the Raptors because they had a technical advantage over the Spurs on that particular night given how poorly the Spurs have fared this season on the back to back situation, at that point they were 2-7 ATS in that scenario.

Fundamental handicapping – perhaps the easiest and most basic method whereby you use basic statistics that you can get from a boxscore. Things like team shooting %’s, defensive statistics, player turnover ratios, team 3 point shooting made and conceded etc The over in the Warriors v Knicks game a few nights ago was set at 231.5. That itself is enough for many to be scared away from betting the over, however always ask yourself with these kinds of totals why has it been set so high? A quick look at each of the team’s offense and defense numbers and where they ranked in the NBA under those categories would have given you the reason.

Situational handicapping - this is the one I wanted to go into a bit more detail in below.

rod_steel · Answer

The underlying theory behind situation handicapping is that on any given day or night, the situation can dictate how a team could perform. Therefore the circumstances surrounding the upcoming game are considered. Some examples:

(i) Revenge – motivation for a team is perhaps the single most important factor to consider when deciding to back a team. The last thing you want to do is back a lame horse. If you read the leadup quotes and comments to a game where one team was beaten up badly by another earlier in the season, you will invariably see some kind of reference back to that game which is a sure sign they will be motivated.

(ii) Letdown – again motivation is the common theme here. A classic example is when a team comes off a very successful road trip and play their first home game upon their return. This is an even more appealing if the team they play is a sub 0.500 team

(iii) Lookahead – situation where one team has an upcoming marquee game against a top opponent in the game causing them to look past their current opponent.

(iv) Sandwich – invariably the NBA schedulers will throw up a meaningless game for a top team which will be in the middle of couple of keys games. We had an example the other night where the Lakers had to play the Thunder at Staples, after coming off an East coast swing. Then the next night they had to hit the road and travel to Salt Lake City.

(v) 4/5 – All teams will at some point be faced with a situation where they have to play 4 games in 5 nights. As an example I always like fading a team who have to play their 4^th game against an uptempo, offensive minded team. I have a calendar in my room where I have marked down every single situation where a team has to play their 4^th game in 5 nights, fairly simply thing to do by having a look at the NBA schedule but a potential valuable one.

Invariably you will find that it isn’t one single situation you use to make a play, it could be a combination. Also even more broadly speaking you will find that to make a strong play you will have to use a combination of all 3 capping methods.

Good luck for the second half of the season

Rod

Miracle1976 · Answer

Thanks Rod, always glad to read your thoughts

thatsagoodone · Answer

One of the best threads all season   Thanks Rod

Islandstyle · Answer

and the last one is the drunk stooper bet!!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Love the write up...keep rollin bro!!

Bruuuuce78 · Answer

great post bro..........i should print that

Szejtan [PL] · Answer

LIKE IT

andarmac99 · Answer

Agree 100%. I&#x27;ve only been betting the NBA two years and have figured out that almost of all the actual handicapping that will give you the best results is situational handicapping, of course with smaller elements of the other factors you mentioned added in.Probably the most important thing - IMO anyway - that anybody looking to start betting on the NBA is to not place a majority of weight on the individual matchups and more importantly stats when looking at a game and capping it, but to try to figure out when and which team will show up on a particular night in a particular matchup. I think if/when you figure this out you will have a lot of success betting in this league.Great post Rod.

nbafan88 · Answer

very good write up rod.

Coverdatspred · Answer

motivation is huge in the NBA....its a grind of a season.  Good read Rod

Miodzik · Answer

awesome writeup Rod, thank you

KingKappy128 · Answer

Nice write up brotha

MACDONEGAL · Answer

thank you!

chilitokid · Answer

Nice write up rod_steel I&#x27;m not sure if you numbered the categories by importance because I think 1 and 3 are of equal value and 2 is the lesser of all the categories listed.Another situation I feel that should be included in Method #3 is a team on a B2B where the 2nd game is in Denver and Denver is not on a B2B. Again, nice write up.

Dr_Hoops · Answer

Great write up man.

chilitokid · Answer

oops  take Denver in this situation.

axpiota59 · Answer

excellent

HappyKane · Answer

Any sid-choo-way-sho-nal strategies for tennis?

Situational Handicapping

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