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Simple NHL Home Chase System

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Posted: #1
Simple System, chase a team thats on a series of 3 or more games in a row at home.
 
Last Season this was 154-7 (+69.01u)
 
Also, just betting the first game of each 3 or more game home series would have went 93-61
 
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Posted: #2
Yeah i remember your thread from last season. The system seems solid. The one thing that worries me is the juice. Not all home teams are gonna be favourites, but when you get teams like detroit and pitts at home vs mediocre teams the line could be as high as -300. If you lose a chase, its a big hit on the bankroll.  According to the record you posted, 1 loss would be worth about 12 units.

Are you going to be posting picks on this thread?

 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by ethancraft50:

Yeah i remember your thread from last season. The system seems solid. The one thing that worries me is the juice. Not all home teams are gonna be favourites, but when you get teams like detroit and pitts at home vs mediocre teams the line could be as high as -300. If you lose a chase, its a big hit on the bankroll.  According to the record you posted, 1 loss would be worth about 12 units.

Are you going to be posting picks on this thread?

yes I will. Also, rarely is a team -200. Most plays are around the -120 mark if their a fav and a +120 if they're a dog.

As for the chase losses, here is last seasons loss amounts
-2.68u
-6.75u
-15.85u
-17.16u
-23.24u
-4.56u
-14.75u

So yeah the average series loss last season would have been 12.14u

 
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Posted: #4
Tomspeople, do you have the game-by-game record ? Whats the record for game 1s, 2s,3s and 4 ???


 
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Posted: #5
Interesting Tomspeople, I'll be sure to watch....Thanks
 
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Posted: #6
I have to disagree with you on the money lines, here is Detroit at home for 3 games and the lines are -280 -240 and -220
 
 
 
12/1/07
Phoenix W 3-2 Chris Osgood Ilya Bryzgalov W -280 U 5.5 -120
11/29/07 Tampa Bay W 4-2 Chris Osgood Marc Denis W -240 O 5.5 -120
11/27/07 Calgary W 5-3 Chris Osgood Curtis McElhinney W -220 O 5 -145
 
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Posted: #7
quick question.....if the Kings play a 7 game home stand, would you chase the whole seven games if they keep losing?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by duby:

quick question.....if the Kings play a 7 game home stand, would you chase the whole seven games if they keep losing?
 
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Its personal preference really. I prolly wouldn't chase more than 4 games.

 
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Posted: #9
It would also depend if they were the fav or the dog.  It costs less to chase the dog..
 
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Posted: #10
I would how well your HFOUDL plays would do in the NHL???
 
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Posted: #11
I came up with a record of 148-15...  with  NJ, NYI, Flo, Chi, Nash, St. Louis 3 times, Ana, dallas 2, Pho 2, and SJ 2 not winning in the first 3 games...   did I miss something.. At that record it would be a losing proposition...
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by rabiddog:

I came up with a record of 148-15...  with  NJ, NYI, Flo, Chi, Nash, St. Louis 3 times, Ana, dallas 2, Pho 2, and SJ 2 not winning in the first 3 games...   did I miss something.. At that record it would be a losing proposition...

I never said only chase 3 games.

 
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Posted: #13
Can u think similar as HFOUDL in nhl without chase? HFOUDL without chase worked well this baseball season i make money from it. i don't like chase system
 
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Posted: #14
What about not playing the top 3 teams and the bottom 3 teams?
 
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Posted: #15
I get what your saying Stake24, but even though the top 3 teams will have a higher ML, they are also most likely to win.  While the bottom 3 teams would be most likely to lose, they will also be dogs with a great value ML...  So it's going to be a personal decision.
 
Detroit last season with the best record, won a game in each home series
 
Tampa Bay last season with the worst record, also won a home game in each series...
 
I noticed with NYI last season they were 2-8 before going into their last 3 game home series, which they went 0-3.  I would have to say watch for teams playing poorly and definately check to see what goalie is in net.....
 
Unit size is going to play a big part in this chase system, as some teams have up to 7 home games in a row.  It would be smart to vary it in certain circumstances....
 
As a group, we should be able to figure this out... I'll look more into you idea Stake24
 
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Posted: #16
I was thinking of knocking off detroit right off the bat...and/or only play top 10 home teams. I know all teams never lost last season, but it might be just an anomaly.

For chases, particularly in game 1s, in baseball i would play the -1. We can still play the RL -1 for NHL to reduce juice. If we push, then the chase is done. I would rather push than to chase game 2 with heavy juice again.

I hope we figure something out before season starts!
 
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Posted: #17
Ethancraft50 I think that is a great idea with the -1 like 40% on ML 60% on RL or just to break even. What about using SV% or GAA to eliminate bottom 3 or top 3 teams?
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

I never said only chase 3 games.

that was chasing the first 3 games of a home series of 3 or more games..

 

 
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Posted: #19
I'm glad I discovered this thread. I think I can add some valuable hockey advice as it is my passion and best sport to bet on.

I use 5 dimes, where you can get the -1 line and it would definitely be a -1 play on det, if they push game one, its over. I truely like this system.

Another thing, there is something about Canadian teams, I'm not taking anything away from US teams just canadian teams have a lot more pressure on them to succeed as hockey is the #1 sport in canada. While in the states the media and pressure isn't are sever for hockey. I would add all 6 canadian teams into the mix for this system.

A person above said NYI went 2-8 before being swept 0-3 at home, hence losing the chase. I think something we could follow is simple to eliminate poor runs by teams. How about 5-5 is the poorest 10 day streak a team can go into a 3 game homestand with? Regardless of who they play, I don't think that will be an issue.

Thats all that is on my mind right now. Let's share some idea's and pan out this system, I think were onto something.


 
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Posted: #20
i played a chase system last year that never lost.  i dont remember the exact record but i can guess it went like 100-0.  here it is:

wait till any home team loses two straight home games in a row.  it could be weeks apart but they have to be two straight home games in a row.  then bet for them to win a home game.

its going to be a five game chase at the most.
 
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Posted: #21
yeah i used the -1RL A LOT for baseball. ofcourse there will be times when it hits and you will think to yourself "why didn't i bet ML?" but in the long run, it is more beneficial and preserves the bankroll.
i really like the idea of looking at the 5-5 L10 as a filter before going into the home stand.
 
Mr.UnderOver, I remember playing a system like that a few seasons ago...but not last season. Do you have the breakdown of the numbers/records for it still?? like max. bet wagered , longest losing streak....etc..
 
I looked at the top 10 home teams using the stats from the previous season (06-07 season), and only played 4 or more game chases and it was perfect (as tomspeople said, no team lost).
The record I got was 23-0 ... i do not have the numbers in front of me at the moment. but it was undefeated.
The 06-07 season, using 05-06 stats, the top 10 home teams had 1 loss on a 4 game chase....on a 3 or MORE game chase, there were more series losses.
 
The problem i guess, with only playing the top 10 teams would that over the course of the season, there may be only
20-25 series....and even with 1 loss, you may only end up with 13-18 units....i only used top 10 home teams because i thought they would be the most reliable teams.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MrUnderOver:

i played a chase system last year that never lost.  i dont remember the exact record but i can guess it went like 100-0.  here it is:

wait till any home team loses two straight home games in a row.  it could be weeks apart but they have to be two straight home games in a row.  then bet for them to win a home game.

its going to be a five game chase at the most.

It couldn't of been 100-0 there are may teams that lost 2 straight at home and then lost the rest of their current home games. Quick examples are:

NY Islanders 0-3

Anaheim 0-3

Dallas 0-3 at the beginning of season and another 0-3 at end of the season

 
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Posted: #23
dude, you keep betting them at home.  like they may even go on a long road trip and then you start betting them again when they come back home.

the system is like 100-0...not each bet.  thats obviously impossible.
 
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Posted: #24
So your just betting a team to win at home.  That should happen eventually, unless your the Detroit Tigers at the beginning of the season...
 
 
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Posted: #25
well, yes but you dont want to chase more than six games cause that would cost you a TON of money.  so after they lose 8 straight at home, then you call is quits.  but like i said, i don't think that ever happened last year.  a team never lost 8 in a row at home.
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