Simple NHL Home Chase System

Yeah i remember your thread from last season. The system seems solid. The one thing that worries me is the juice. Not all home teams are gonna be favourites, but when you get teams like detroit and pitts at home vs mediocre teams the line could be as high as -300. If you lose a chase, its a big hit on the bankroll.  According to the record you posted, 1 loss would be worth about 12 units.

Are you going to be posting picks on this thread?

yes I will. Also, rarely is a team -200. Most plays are around the -120 mark if their a fav and a +120 if they're a dog.

As for the chase losses, here is last seasons loss amounts
-2.68u
-6.75u
-15.85u
-17.16u
-23.24u
-4.56u
-14.75u

So yeah the average series loss last season would have been 12.14u

Tomspeople, do you have the game-by-game record ? Whats the record for game 1s, 2s,3s and 4 ???

Its personal preference really. I prolly wouldn't chase more than 4 games.

I would how well your HFOUDL plays would do in the NHL???

I never said only chase 3 games.

What about not playing the top 3 teams and the bottom 3 teams?

I was thinking of knocking off detroit right off the bat...and/or only play top 10 home teams. I know all teams never lost last season, but it might be just an anomaly.

For chases, particularly in game 1s, in baseball i would play the -1. We can still play the RL -1 for NHL to reduce juice. If we push, then the chase is done. I would rather push than to chase game 2 with heavy juice again.

I hope we figure something out before season starts!

Ethancraft50 I think that is a great idea with the -1 like 40% on ML 60% on RL or just to break even. What about using SV% or GAA to eliminate bottom 3 or top 3 teams?

that was chasing the first 3 games of a home series of 3 or more games..

 

I'm glad I discovered this thread. I think I can add some valuable hockey advice as it is my passion and best sport to bet on.

I use 5 dimes, where you can get the -1 line and it would definitely be a -1 play on det, if they push game one, its over. I truely like this system.

Another thing, there is something about Canadian teams, I'm not taking anything away from US teams just canadian teams have a lot more pressure on them to succeed as hockey is the #1 sport in canada. While in the states the media and pressure isn't are sever for hockey. I would add all 6 canadian teams into the mix for this system.

A person above said NYI went 2-8 before being swept 0-3 at home, hence losing the chase. I think something we could follow is simple to eliminate poor runs by teams. How about 5-5 is the poorest 10 day streak a team can go into a 3 game homestand with? Regardless of who they play, I don't think that will be an issue.

Thats all that is on my mind right now. Let's share some idea's and pan out this system, I think were onto something.

i played a chase system last year that never lost.  i dont remember the exact record but i can guess it went like 100-0.  here it is:

wait till any home team loses two straight home games in a row.  it could be weeks apart but they have to be two straight home games in a row.  then bet for them to win a home game.

its going to be a five game chase at the most.

It couldn't of been 100-0 there are may teams that lost 2 straight at home and then lost the rest of their current home games. Quick examples are:

NY Islanders 0-3

Anaheim 0-3

Dallas 0-3 at the beginning of season and another 0-3 at end of the season

dude, you keep betting them at home.  like they may even go on a long road trip and then you start betting them again when they come back home.

the system is like 100-0...not each bet.  thats obviously impossible.

well, yes but you dont want to chase more than six games cause that would cost you a TON of money.  so after they lose 8 straight at home, then you call is quits.  but like i said, i don't think that ever happened last year.  a team never lost 8 in a row at home.