Shoot middle, play opening line, or both?

Question

Ok, so I just got back into football and the only reason is because I recently found a local book that pretty much offers opening lines at 20 cent prices and I can get current lines for 5 cents. My question is what is the best value play when there are moves in the line.

So for instance, I can get today's Bowling Green O/U for 64.5 while my other line is 72.5. I would play the over 64.5 on one side and under 72.5 on the other and/or I could also just play the over 64.5, but keep in mind I need to pay 20 cent juice for this line.

For NCAA football I have been tracking 4+ point moves in the O/U for the last three weeks and according to my records if I would have shot the middle, it would have hit 5 out of 15 times and if I would have bet with the move on the original line it would have went 11-4. If I were to have played $100 for each bet I would have been +700 shooting the middle and +$620 playing only the original line.

Obviously, looking at the end numbers, just shooting for the middle is a more profitable play the past three weeks, but would it be in the long run? Also, I have been only tracking 4+ point differences, but should I look at a lower number? If you were me, how would you attack these opening lines for 20 cent prices?

jmj0013 · Answer

Ok, so I just got back into football and the only reason is because I recently found a local book that pretty much offers opening lines at 20 cent prices and I can get current lines for 5 cents. My question is what is the best value play when there are moves in the line.

So for instance, I can get today's Bowling Green O/U for 64.5 while my other line is 72.5. I would play the over 64.5 on one side and under 72.5 on the other and/or I could also just play the over 64.5, but keep in mind I need to pay 20 cent juice for this line.

For NCAA football I have been tracking 4+ point moves in the O/U for the last three weeks and according to my records if I would have shot the middle, it would have hit 5 out of 15 times and if I would have bet with the move on the original line it would have went 11-4. If I were to have played $100 for each bet I would have been +700 shooting the middle and +$620 playing only the original line.

Obviously, looking at the end numbers, just shooting for the middle is a more profitable play the past three weeks, but would it be in the long run? Also, I have been only tracking 4+ point differences, but should I look at a lower number? If you were me, how would you attack these opening lines for 20 cent prices?

jmj0013 · Answer

Any insight?

ropeAAdope · Answer

Stick with the good line IMO. And can I get hooked up with your bookie

jmj0013 · Answer

So I started playing four weeks ago going $100 each way to shoot the middle and so far I have hit two middles and pushed one.  Total I am up &#x2B;$140.  Had I just played $100 on the original line, I would be 18-13-1, but having to pay 20 cent juice I would have been &#x2B;$240.  These past three weeks have been pretty brutal, basically winning half and losing half and then having to pay the 20 cent juice.  The good thing is that at least I am up.  I can&#x27;t complain.

rudie · Answer

id certainly bet the opening line at 20 cent. you know youd be getting in on  the sharp plays at a great line. you figure your supposed to lay 120 just to move a game 1 point. your getting 3 and four points ???? absolute value there. this is unheard of. he wont be around long.

jmj0013 · Answer

Should I solely play only the opening lines or maybe play both the opening and shoot the middle?

jmj0013 · Answer

So far for today I have seven games with a difference of 4&#x2B; points and five of those games have a difference of 7&#x2B; points.

Shoot middle, play opening line, or both?

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