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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    "Key Parlays" [MLB} after 17 days & Continued.

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    rickbrown86
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    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2007 - 10:34 AM ET #1

    The Rules of the Key System are "keying" the opening line highest juice team in 2-team parlays with next 3 opening line teams with highest juice. These will become parlays (A) (B) and (C). If there is a tie -- 1st tie-break is W/L record of teams -- 2nd tie-break is Home over Away -- 3rd is current streak. The other rule is the unit level we bet, and this is determined only by the "key" We start at a base unit (never go under whatever base is) after a loss we increase 1 unit & after a win we decrease 1 unit. There are streaks in any system or even straight plays, and by only using whether the "key" wins or loses -- we will be at base level most of the time as it is winning at about 70%. ************************************************* I want to track this for a Season to get complete results, but I really believe it is best to wait until 30 days into season to (1) let Linesmakers get settled in and (2) when weather conditions more favor the sport. ************************************************* Started tracking in oakparkheartguy's thread, so for earlier plays you can check there. Will include the last play from yesterday: Fwd <$3473> 17 Apr Day 17 level (4) $400 Key is ATL with: [A] DET 400/477 [B] HOU 400/472 [C] STL 400/491 Fwd: <$3473> Day 17 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$549 After 17 days: <$2,924> level now (3) $300
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    The Rules of the Key System are "keying" the opening line highest juice team in 2-team parlays with next 3 opening line teams with highest juice. These will become parlays (A) (B) and (C). If there is a tie -- 1st tie-break is W/L record of teams -- 2nd tie-break is Home over Away -- 3rd is current streak. The other rule is the unit level we bet, and this is determined only by the "key" We start at a base unit (never go under whatever base is) after a loss we increase 1 unit & after a win we decrease 1 unit. There are streaks in any system or even straight plays, and by only using whether the "key" wins or loses -- we will be at base level most of the time as it is winning at about 70%. ************************************************* I want to track this for a Season to get complete results, but I really believe it is best to wait until 30 days into season to (1) let Linesmakers get settled in and (2) when weather conditions more favor the sport. ************************************************* Started tracking in oakparkheartguy's thread, so for earlier plays you can check there. Will include the last play from yesterday: Fwd <$3473> 17 Apr Day 17 level (4) $400 Key is ATL with: [A] DET 400/477 [B] HOU 400/472 [C] STL 400/491 Fwd: <$3473> Day 17 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$549 After 17 days: <$2,924> level now (3) $300
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2007 - 2:08 PM ET #2

    Fwd <$2924> 18 Apr Day 18 level (3) $300 Key is DET with: [A] SEA 300/335 [B] CIN 300/462 [C] NYY 300/462
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    Fwd <$2924> 18 Apr Day 18 level (3) $300 Key is DET with: [A] SEA 300/335 [B] CIN 300/462 [C] NYY 300/462
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2007 - 10:21 PM ET #3

    Fwd: <$2924> Day 18 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 18 days: <$3824> level now (4) $400
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    Fwd: <$2924> Day 18 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 18 days: <$3824> level now (4) $400
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 19, 2007 - 3:46 AM ET #4

    Fwd <$3824> 19 Apr Day 19 level (4) $400 Key is TOR with: [A] MIN 400/553 [B] SD 400/543 [C] NYY 400/564
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    Fwd <$3824> 19 Apr Day 19 level (4) $400 Key is TOR with: [A] MIN 400/553 [B] SD 400/543 [C] NYY 400/564
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 19, 2007 - 8:23 PM ET #5

    Fwd: <$3824> Day 19 Key Lost Day: <$1200> After 19 days: <$5024> level now (5) $500
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    Fwd: <$3824> Day 19 Key Lost Day: <$1200> After 19 days: <$5024> level now (5) $500
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2007 - 2:57 AM ET #6

    This whole system is based on the key averaging 70% and A B C about 62% [.70 X .62 = .43 or parlays hit about 43%] Current percentages are Key @ 42% and A B C @ 63% [.42 X .63 = .26 or parlays hit about 26%] Actual is at 24% BRUTAL!
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    This whole system is based on the key averaging 70% and A B C about 62% [.70 X .62 = .43 or parlays hit about 43%] Current percentages are Key @ 42% and A B C @ 63% [.42 X .63 = .26 or parlays hit about 26%] Actual is at 24% BRUTAL!
     
    mvp123
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2007 - 10:24 AM ET #7

    so am i correct in thinking the next play would cost a total of 1500? thats bizzare at best||peace.gif' border=0>
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    so am i correct in thinking the next play would cost a total of 1500? thats bizzare at best||peace.gif' border=0>
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2007 - 1:08 PM ET #8

    I won't start playing this until 30 days in, but wanted to track from season start to get complete season results. Hope everyone read that earlier. I am curious as to how long it takes before system digs itself out of this hole tho. Fwd <$5024> 20 Apr Day 20 level (5) $500 Key is CLE with: [A] MIL 500/748 [B] FLA 500/772 [C] LAD 500/722
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    I won't start playing this until 30 days in, but wanted to track from season start to get complete season results. Hope everyone read that earlier. I am curious as to how long it takes before system digs itself out of this hole tho. Fwd <$5024> 20 Apr Day 20 level (5) $500 Key is CLE with: [A] MIL 500/748 [B] FLA 500/772 [C] LAD 500/722
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 21, 2007 - 1:55 AM ET #9

    Fwd: <$5024> Day 19 Key Won (with C) Day: <$278> After 19 days: <$5302> level now (4) $400
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    Fwd: <$5024> Day 19 Key Won (with C) Day: <$278> After 19 days: <$5302> level now (4) $400
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 21, 2007 - 12:08 PM ET #10

    above post should read Day 20, not Day 19
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    above post should read Day 20, not Day 19
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 21, 2007 - 12:09 PM ET #11

    Fwd <$5302> 21 Apr Day 21 level (4) $400 Key is FLA with: [A] BRS 400/664 [B] LAA 400/678 [C] COL 400/745
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    Fwd <$5302> 21 Apr Day 21 level (4) $400 Key is FLA with: [A] BRS 400/664 [B] LAA 400/678 [C] COL 400/745
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 22, 2007 - 1:29 AM ET #12

    Fwd: <$5302> Day 21 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$942 After 21 days: <$4360> level now (3) $300
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    Fwd: <$5302> Day 21 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$942 After 21 days: <$4360> level now (3) $300
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 22, 2007 - 12:53 PM ET #13

    Fwd <$4360> 22 Apr Day 22 level (3) $300 Key is SF with: [A] BRS 400/664 [B] DET 400/678 [C] MIN 400/745
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    Fwd <$4360> 22 Apr Day 22 level (3) $300 Key is SF with: [A] BRS 400/664 [B] DET 400/678 [C] MIN 400/745
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 23, 2007 - 2:29 AM ET #14

    oops -- parlay amounts were not updated to today's teams & levels. Correct amounts are: Fwd <$4360> 22 Apr Day 22 level (3) $300 Key is SF with: [A] BRS 300/435 [B] DET 300/470 [C] MIN 300/495
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    oops -- parlay amounts were not updated to today's teams & levels. Correct amounts are: Fwd <$4360> 22 Apr Day 22 level (3) $300 Key is SF with: [A] BRS 300/435 [B] DET 300/470 [C] MIN 300/495
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 23, 2007 - 2:31 AM ET #15

    Fwd: <$4360> Day 22 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$605 After 22 days: <$3755> level now (2) $200
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    Fwd: <$4360> Day 22 Key Won (with A B) Day: +$605 After 22 days: <$3755> level now (2) $200
     
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    Posted: Apr. 23, 2007 - 3:18 AM ET #16

    Fwd <$3755> 23 Apr Day 23 level (2) $200 Key is BRS with: [A] NYM 200/244 [B] NYY 200/273 [C] CUBS 200/294
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    Fwd <$3755> 23 Apr Day 23 level (2) $200 Key is BRS with: [A] NYM 200/244 [B] NYY 200/273 [C] CUBS 200/294
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2007 - 4:01 AM ET #17

    Fwd: <$3755> Day 23 Key Lost Day: <600> After 23 days: <$4355> level now (3) $300
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    Fwd: <$3755> Day 23 Key Lost Day: <600> After 23 days: <$4355> level now (3) $300
     
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2007 - 4:06 AM ET #18

    Fwd <$4355> 24 Apr Day 24 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYM 300/334 [B] PHI 300/324 [C] ARI 300/431
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    Fwd <$4355> 24 Apr Day 24 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYM 300/334 [B] PHI 300/324 [C] ARI 300/431
     
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2007 - 4:07 AM ET #19

    Fwd: <$4355> Day 24 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 24 days: <$5255> level now (4) $400
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    Fwd: <$4355> Day 24 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 24 days: <$5255> level now (4) $400
     
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2007 - 1:09 PM ET #20

    Fwd <$5255> 25 Apr Day 25 level (4) $400 Key is LAA with: [A] CLE 400/447 [B] NYM 400/474 [C] NYY 400/490
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    Fwd <$5255> 25 Apr Day 25 level (4) $400 Key is LAA with: [A] CLE 400/447 [B] NYM 400/474 [C] NYY 400/490
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 25, 2007 - 9:07 PM ET #21

    NYY postponed sub for {C}: [C] PHI 400/492
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    NYY postponed sub for {C}: [C] PHI 400/492
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2007 - 2:30 AM ET #22

    Fwd: <$5255> Day 25 Key Won (with B C) Day: +$539 After 25 days: <$4360> level now (3) $300
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    Fwd: <$5255> Day 25 Key Won (with B C) Day: +$539 After 25 days: <$4360> level now (3) $300
     
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    Posted: Apr. 26, 2007 - 4:02 AM ET #23

    Fwd <$4360> 26 Apr Day 26 level (3) $300 Key is PHI with: [A] LAA 300/356 [B] LAD 300/367 [C] BRS 300/414
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    Fwd <$4360> 26 Apr Day 26 level (3) $300 Key is PHI with: [A] LAA 300/356 [B] LAD 300/367 [C] BRS 300/414
     
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2007 - 5:46 AM ET #24

    Fwd <$4716> corrected total 26 Apr Day 26 level (3) $300 Key is PHI with: [A] LAA 300/356 [B] LAD 300/367 [C] BRS 300/414
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    Fwd <$4716> corrected total 26 Apr Day 26 level (3) $300 Key is PHI with: [A] LAA 300/356 [B] LAD 300/367 [C] BRS 300/414
     
     
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2007 - 5:48 AM ET #25

    Fwd: <$4716> Day 26 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 26 days: <$5,616> level now (4) $400
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    Fwd: <$4716> Day 26 Key Lost Day: <$900> After 26 days: <$5,616> level now (4) $400
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