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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    "Key Parlays" [MLB 2007} after 100 days & Continued.

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    rickbrown86
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    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2007 - 3:31 PM ET #1

    Rules (from prev thread) The Rules of the Key System are "keying" the opening line highest juice team in 2-team parlays with next 3 opening line teams with highest juice. These will become parlays (A) (B) and (C). If there is a tie -- 1st tie-break is W/L record of teams -- 2nd tie-break is Home over Away -- 3rd is current streak. The other rule is the unit level we bet, and this is determined only by the "key" We start at a base unit (never go under whatever base is) after a loss we increase 1 unit & after a win we decrease 1 unit. There are streaks in any system or even straight plays, and by only using whether the "key" wins or loses -- we will be at base level most of the time as it is winning at about 70%. ************************************************* I want to track this for a Season to get complete results, but I really believe it is best to wait until 30 days into season to (1) let Linesmakers get settled in and (2) when weather conditions more favor the sport. ************************************************
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    Rules (from prev thread) The Rules of the Key System are "keying" the opening line highest juice team in 2-team parlays with next 3 opening line teams with highest juice. These will become parlays (A) (B) and (C). If there is a tie -- 1st tie-break is W/L record of teams -- 2nd tie-break is Home over Away -- 3rd is current streak. The other rule is the unit level we bet, and this is determined only by the "key" We start at a base unit (never go under whatever base is) after a loss we increase 1 unit & after a win we decrease 1 unit. There are streaks in any system or even straight plays, and by only using whether the "key" wins or loses -- we will be at base level most of the time as it is winning at about 70%. ************************************************* I want to track this for a Season to get complete results, but I really believe it is best to wait until 30 days into season to (1) let Linesmakers get settled in and (2) when weather conditions more favor the sport. ************************************************
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2007 - 3:32 PM ET #2

    Fwd: <$7383> (Tracking entire season) Day 100 Key: Won (with A B) Day: +$520 After 100 days: <$6863> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$1183 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 70 Key: Won (with A B) Day: +$520 After 70 days: +$1703 level now (1) $100
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    Fwd: <$7383> (Tracking entire season) Day 100 Key: Won (with A B) Day: +$520 After 100 days: <$6863> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$1183 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 70 Key: Won (with A B) Day: +$520 After 70 days: +$1703 level now (1) $100
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2007 - 3:44 PM ET #3

    After 100 days the internal percentages are: KEY = 62.00% (this is low -- sb approx 70%) A = 64.29% (this is high -- sb approx 62%) B = 55.56 (this is low -- sb approx 62%) C = 54.00% (this is low -- sb approx 62%) in parlays : KEY/A = 34.69% (sb aprox 42-43%) KEY/B = 36.36% (sb aprox 42-43%) KEY/C = 33.00% (sb aprox 42-43%) Using both MLB last year & NHL results for the "guess-ti-mates" on what percentages should be. Time will tell if the reach these projected numbers.
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    After 100 days the internal percentages are: KEY = 62.00% (this is low -- sb approx 70%) A = 64.29% (this is high -- sb approx 62%) B = 55.56 (this is low -- sb approx 62%) C = 54.00% (this is low -- sb approx 62%) in parlays : KEY/A = 34.69% (sb aprox 42-43%) KEY/B = 36.36% (sb aprox 42-43%) KEY/C = 33.00% (sb aprox 42-43%) Using both MLB last year & NHL results for the "guess-ti-mates" on what percentages should be. Time will tell if the reach these projected numbers.
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2007 - 3:51 PM ET #4

    Fwd <$6863> (Tracking entire season) 13 Jul Day 101 level (1) $100 Key is MIN with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CUBS 100/121 [C] CLE 100/118 Fwd: +$1703 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 13 Jul Day 71 level (1) $100 Key is MIN with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CUBS 100/121 [C] CLE 100/118
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    Fwd <$6863> (Tracking entire season) 13 Jul Day 101 level (1) $100 Key is MIN with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CUBS 100/121 [C] CLE 100/118 Fwd: +$1703 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 13 Jul Day 71 level (1) $100 Key is MIN with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CUBS 100/121 [C] CLE 100/118
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2007 - 3:45 AM ET #5

    Fwd: <$6863> (Tracking entire season) Day 101 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$354 After 101 days: <$6509> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$1703 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 71 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$354 After 71 days: +$2057 level now (1) $100
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    Fwd: <$6863> (Tracking entire season) Day 101 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$354 After 101 days: <$6509> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$1703 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 71 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$354 After 71 days: +$2057 level now (1) $100
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2007 - 1:22 PM ET #6

    Fwd <$6509> (Tracking entire season) 14 Jul Day 102 level (1) $100 Key is BRS with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CLE 100/116 [C] NYY 100/120 Fwd: +$2057 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 14 Jul Day 72 level (1) $100 Key is BRS with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CLE 100/116 [C] NYY 100/120
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    Fwd <$6509> (Tracking entire season) 14 Jul Day 102 level (1) $100 Key is BRS with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CLE 100/116 [C] NYY 100/120 Fwd: +$2057 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 14 Jul Day 72 level (1) $100 Key is BRS with: [A] LAA 100/115 [B] CLE 100/116 [C] NYY 100/120
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2007 - 2:40 AM ET #7

    Fwd: <$6509> (Tracking entire season) Day 102 Key: Won (with A C) Day: +$135 After 102 days: <$6374> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$2057 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 72 Key: Won (with A C) Day: +$135 After 72 days: +$2192 level now (1) $100
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    Fwd: <$6509> (Tracking entire season) Day 102 Key: Won (with A C) Day: +$135 After 102 days: <$6374> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$2057 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 72 Key: Won (with A C) Day: +$135 After 72 days: +$2192 level now (1) $100
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2007 - 12:27 PM ET #8

    Fwd <$6374> (Tracking entire season) 15 Jul Day 103 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/110 [B] LAA 100/115 [C] NYY 100/125 Fwd: +$2192 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 15 Jul Day 73 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/110 [B] LAA 100/115 [C] NYY 100/125
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    Fwd <$6374> (Tracking entire season) 15 Jul Day 103 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/110 [B] LAA 100/115 [C] NYY 100/125 Fwd: +$2192 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 15 Jul Day 73 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/110 [B] LAA 100/115 [C] NYY 100/125
     
    angelobruno
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2007 - 11:19 PM ET #9

    rick nice going bro after 72 days still positive cash flo nice work buddy||an_cheers.gif' border=0>
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    rick nice going bro after 72 days still positive cash flo nice work buddy||an_cheers.gif' border=0>
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2007 - 1:24 AM ET #10

    angelobruno Thanks At least it shows that you can back 2-teamers with high juice. There may be a better way, but I think it gives us more confidence in betting a 2-teamer.||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
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    angelobruno Thanks At least it shows that you can back 2-teamers with high juice. There may be a better way, but I think it gives us more confidence in betting a 2-teamer.||Peace_5.gif' border=0>
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2007 - 1:25 AM ET #11

    Fwd: <$6374> (Tracking entire season) Day 103 Key: Won (with C) Day: <$75> After 103 days: <$6449> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$2192 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 73 Key: Won (with C) Day: <$75> After 73 days: +$2117 level now (1) $100
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    Fwd: <$6374> (Tracking entire season) Day 103 Key: Won (with C) Day: <$75> After 103 days: <$6449> level now (1) $100 Fwd: +$2192 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 73 Key: Won (with C) Day: <$75> After 73 days: +$2117 level now (1) $100
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2007 - 1:38 AM ET #12

    angelobruno: If interested, the entire hockey season is under: Key parlays (back on pg 2) Key Parlays (continued)(back on page 2) "Key Parlays" after 71 days & Continued. (near bottom this page) "Key Parlays" after 120 days & Continued. (about halfway down this page) Had some real struggles, but finished After 188 days: +$3,259
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    angelobruno: If interested, the entire hockey season is under: Key parlays (back on pg 2) Key Parlays (continued)(back on page 2) "Key Parlays" after 71 days & Continued. (near bottom this page) "Key Parlays" after 120 days & Continued. (about halfway down this page) Had some real struggles, but finished After 188 days: +$3,259
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2007 - 3:13 AM ET #13

    Not that is matters, but I really hate today's play Fwd <$6449> (Tracking entire season) 16 Jul Day 104 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/152 [B] ATL 100/150 [C] NYY 100/161 Fwd: +$2117 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 16 Jul Day 74 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/152 [B] ATL 100/150 [C] NYY 100/161
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    Not that is matters, but I really hate today's play Fwd <$6449> (Tracking entire season) 16 Jul Day 104 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/152 [B] ATL 100/150 [C] NYY 100/161 Fwd: +$2117 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 16 Jul Day 74 level (1) $100 Key is CLE with: [A] BRS 100/152 [B] ATL 100/150 [C] NYY 100/161
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 16, 2007 - 10:58 PM ET #14

    Fwd: <$6449> (Tracking entire season) Day 104 Key: Lost Day: <$300> After 104 days: <$6749> level now (2) $200 Fwd: +$2117 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 74 Key: Lost Day: <$300> After 74 days: +$1817 level now (2) $200
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    Fwd: <$6449> (Tracking entire season) Day 104 Key: Lost Day: <$300> After 104 days: <$6749> level now (2) $200 Fwd: +$2117 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 74 Key: Lost Day: <$300> After 74 days: +$1817 level now (2) $200
     
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2007 - 12:22 PM ET #15

    Fwd: <$6749> (Tracking entire season) Day 105 Key: Lost Day: <$600> After 105 days: <$7349> level now (3) $300 Fwd: +$1817 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 75 Key: Lost Day: <$600> After 75 days: +$1217 level now (3) $300
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    Fwd: <$6749> (Tracking entire season) Day 105 Key: Lost Day: <$600> After 105 days: <$7349> level now (3) $300 Fwd: +$1817 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 75 Key: Lost Day: <$600> After 75 days: +$1217 level now (3) $300
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2007 - 12:31 PM ET #16

    18 Jul Day 106 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYY 300/416 [B] BRS 300/402 [C] CUBS 300/430 Fwd: +$1217 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 18 Jul Day 76 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYY 300/416 [B] BRS 300/402 [C] CUBS 300/430
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    18 Jul Day 106 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYY 300/416 [B] BRS 300/402 [C] CUBS 300/430 Fwd: +$1217 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 18 Jul Day 76 level (3) $300 Key is MIN with: [A] NYY 300/416 [B] BRS 300/402 [C] CUBS 300/430
     
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2007 - 12:03 AM ET #17

    Fwd: <$7349> (Tracking entire season) Day 106 Key: Lost Day: <$900> After 106 days: <$8249> level now (4) $400 Fwd: +$1217 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 76 Key: Lost Day: <$900> After 76 days: +$317 level now (4) $400
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    Fwd: <$7349> (Tracking entire season) Day 106 Key: Lost Day: <$900> After 106 days: <$8249> level now (4) $400 Fwd: +$1217 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 76 Key: Lost Day: <$900> After 76 days: +$317 level now (4) $400
     
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2007 - 12:25 AM ET #18

    Fwd <$8249> (Tracking entire season) 19 Jul Day 107 level (4) $400 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 400/474 [B] ATL 400/499 [C] CUBS 400/539 Fwd: +$317 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 19 Jul Day 77 level (4) $400 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 400/474 [B] ATL 400/499 [C] CUBS 400/539
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    Fwd <$8249> (Tracking entire season) 19 Jul Day 107 level (4) $400 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 400/474 [B] ATL 400/499 [C] CUBS 400/539 Fwd: +$317 ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 19 Jul Day 77 level (4) $400 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 400/474 [B] ATL 400/499 [C] CUBS 400/539
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2007 - 10:03 PM ET #19

    Fwd: <$8249> (Tracking entire season) Day 107 Key: Lost Day: <$1200> After 107 days: <$9449> level now (5) $500 Fwd: +$317 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 77 Key: Lost Day: <$1200> After 77 days: +$317<$883> level now (5) $500 feeling needy
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    Fwd: <$8249> (Tracking entire season) Day 107 Key: Lost Day: <$1200> After 107 days: <$9449> level now (5) $500 Fwd: +$317 (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 77 Key: Lost Day: <$1200> After 77 days: +$317<$883> level now (5) $500 feeling needy
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 20, 2007 - 9:45 AM ET #20

    Fwd <$9449> (Tracking entire season) 20 Jul Day 108 level (5) $500 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 500/536 [B] DET 500/603 [C] MIL 500/708 Fwd: <$883> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 20 Jul Day 78 level (5) $500 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 500/536 [B] DET 500/603 [C] MIL 500/708
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    Fwd <$9449> (Tracking entire season) 20 Jul Day 108 level (5) $500 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 500/536 [B] DET 500/603 [C] MIL 500/708 Fwd: <$883> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 20 Jul Day 78 level (5) $500 Key is NYY with: [A] BRS 500/536 [B] DET 500/603 [C] MIL 500/708
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 21, 2007 - 1:53 PM ET #21

    Well I commited to a season LOL -- Is it over yet? Fwd: <$9449> (Tracking entire season) Day 108 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 108 days: <$10,949> level now (6) $600 Fwd: <$883> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 78 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 78 days: <$2,383> level now (6) $600
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    Well I commited to a season LOL -- Is it over yet? Fwd: <$9449> (Tracking entire season) Day 108 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 108 days: <$10,949> level now (6) $600 Fwd: <$883> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 78 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 78 days: <$2,383> level now (6) $600
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 21, 2007 - 1:57 PM ET #22

    Fwd <$10,949> (Tracking entire season) 21 Jul Day 109 level (6) $600 Key is DET with: [A] NYY-G1 600/629 [B] OAK 600/667 [C] BRS 600/728 Fwd: <$2,383> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 21 Jul Day 79 level (6) $600 Key is DET with: [A] NYY-G1 600/629 [B] OAK 600/667 [C] BRS 600/728
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    Fwd <$10,949> (Tracking entire season) 21 Jul Day 109 level (6) $600 Key is DET with: [A] NYY-G1 600/629 [B] OAK 600/667 [C] BRS 600/728 Fwd: <$2,383> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 21 Jul Day 79 level (6) $600 Key is DET with: [A] NYY-G1 600/629 [B] OAK 600/667 [C] BRS 600/728
     
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 22, 2007 - 3:40 AM ET #23

    Fwd: <$10,949> (Tracking entire season) Day 109 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$2024 After 108 days: <$8925> level now (5) $500 Fwd: <$2,383> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 79 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$2024 After 78 days: <$359> level now (5) $500
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    Fwd: <$10,949> (Tracking entire season) Day 109 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$2024 After 108 days: <$8925> level now (5) $500 Fwd: <$2,383> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 79 Key: Won (with A B C) Day: +$2024 After 78 days: <$359> level now (5) $500
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 22, 2007 - 1:42 PM ET #24

    Fwd <$8925> (Tracking entire season) 22 Jul Day 110 level (5) $500 Key is SD with: [A] NYY 500/660 [B] Cubs 500/721 [C] DET 500/708 Fwd: <$359> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 22 Jul Day 80 level (5) $500 Key is SD with: [A] NYY 500/660 [B] Cubs 500/721 [C] DET 500/708
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    Fwd <$8925> (Tracking entire season) 22 Jul Day 110 level (5) $500 Key is SD with: [A] NYY 500/660 [B] Cubs 500/721 [C] DET 500/708 Fwd: <$359> ( Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) 22 Jul Day 80 level (5) $500 Key is SD with: [A] NYY 500/660 [B] Cubs 500/721 [C] DET 500/708
     
     
    rickbrown86
    rickbrown86
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2007 - 3:02 AM ET #25

    Fwd: <$8925> (Tracking entire season) Day 110 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 110 days: <$10425> level now (6) $600 Fwd: <$359> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 80 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 80 days: <$1859> level now (6) $600
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    Fwd: <$8925> (Tracking entire season) Day 110 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 110 days: <$10425> level now (6) $600 Fwd: <$359> (Actual System Start [after 30 days] ) Day 80 Key: Lost Day: <$1500> After 80 days: <$1859> level now (6) $600
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