Projected winning percentage

I tried this morning to use Bill James formula to compute the chances of winning of teams playing NHL games.

Here are the winning percentages (projected):

 

WAS 32.5% @ BOS 67.5%

CAR 43.2% @ NYR 56.8%

DET 49.7% @ CBJ 50.3%

NJD 53.5% @ OTT 46.5%

MON 50% @ TAM 50%

PHI 46.8% @ FLO 53.2%

TOR 38.9% @ MIN 61.1%

ATL 47.1% @ DAL 52.9%

SJS 49.7% @ COL 50.3%

BUF 56.5% @ EDM 43.5% (surprise!!!)

ANA 46.2% @ PHO 53.8%

 

The teams that had chances over 55% are highlighted in red. God, why didn't I compute those yesterday???

 

NBA games

 

SAC 43.4% @ CLE 56.6%

IND 45.9% @ ORL 54.1%

DEN 51.5% @ MEM 48.5%

SAS 47.9% @ UTA 52.1%

CHA 46.3% @ LAL 53.7%

 

So for the NBA only the Bucks had more than 55% chances to win but they where far away from covering -13.5. I think a team at home with chances of 56% could cover -3.5. I don't know exactly how to transform the chances into spread.

Theoretically, no favourite was supposed to cover the spread (???).

Any thoughts?

The projected winning percentages for tonight NHL games would be:

 

NYR 48.1% @ PIT 51.9%

BUF 45.8% @ CAL 54.2%

CHI 50.7% @ ANA 49.3%

NAS 38.9% @ VAN 61.1%

 

 

And let's see how the prediction works for soccer and european hockey today:

 

Togliatti  60.7% - Novosibirsk 39.3%

Cherepovec  56.1% - Torpedo NN 43.9%

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl  58.3% - Atlant Mytishi 41.7%

Vaasan Sport 62.7% - Hokki Kajaani 37.3%

Jukurit Mikkeli 60.7% - KooKoo Kouvoula 39.3%

TuTo Turku  67.3% - D-Team Jyvaskyla 32.7%

Bjorkloven  68.2% - Boras 31.8%

 

Manchester City 80.2% - Newcastle 19.8%

Atalanta Bergamo 78.1% - Bologna 21.9%

Cagliari 85.4% - Siena 14.6%

AC Torino 78.1% - Reggina 21.9%

 

where the heck do you find those % to look up?

I computed those %'s using the goals for and goals against averages.

lol iam lost on that but sounds good to me

but how do you come up with that? calculate that then ? and how would you do that for NCCA basketball my freind

I calculate them using the Pythagorean formula that James found to be good to estimate the winning percentage for baseball teams in the 70's, I think.

Any way, to be brief:

 

WP = GF² / (GF² + GA²),

Where WP = projected winning percentage

GF = goals for / game

GA = goals against / game.

 

Although for basketball is recomended to use the 16.5 exponent.

So the formula becomes:

 

WP = GF^16.5 / (PF^16.5 + PA^16.5),

Where WP = projected winning percentage

PF = points for / game

PA = points against / game.

 

Take into account both teams:

PF = points scored by home team playing at home + points allowed by away team when playing away and the same with points against.

No.

Write these (example):

            Number of games       Points for           Points against

Home             3                          278                         251

Road              6                          332                         357

 

PF (accounting for home) = (278 + 357) / (3 + 6)

that means points scored by home team added at points allowed by road team and than divided by the number of games (total, home + away).

PA (accounting for road) = (332 + 251) / (3 + 6)

that means points scored by road team added to the points allowed by home team and divided by number of games.

Than raise the PF and PA at 16.5 power (for basketball) or 2 power (for hockey, soccer or baseball).

 

would the winning % be figured out in a much more easy why that that.In local sports page when baseball is on they they winning % printed now is that not the same? 

I don't know, I've never seen the local sports page (look at my location) but I assume that's the real winning percentage (number of games won / number of games played) for the season.

Anyway, what I've computed it's a little more complicated than that wp.

ok thanks 

If you're interested that much write your mail and I'll send you an Excel worksheet that automatically computes the percentage when you enter the numbers.

oh you would do that ?

i hope this is ok to do here is my email

where can you find all these stats in one place?

For NBA https://www.sfstats.net/basketball/calendar/2009/1/29/

For NCAA, I don't know.

I computed the chances for tonight NBA games and the true spread for the favourite accordingly to these chances.

I'm curious to see the results tomorrow.

 

Milwaukee 35.8% @ Indiana 64.2% (-4.5)

Sacramento 12.1% @ Boston 87.9% (-12.0)

Washington 26% @ Miami 74%  (-7.0)

Toronto 49% @ New Jersey 51% (-1.0)

Atlanta 44.8% @ New York 55.2% (-2.0)

Chicago 52.6% (-1.5) @ LA Clippers 47.4%

Detroit 55.2% (-2.0) @ Minnesota 44.8%

Denver 39.5% @ New Orleans 60.5% (-3.5)

Memphis 40% @ Oklahoma City 60% (-3.0)

Philadelphia 21.5% @ Houston 71.5% (-6.5)

Golden State 27% @ Dallas 73% (-7.0)

Charlotte 25.2% @ Portland 74.8% (-7.5)

 

The teams highlighted in red should the good picks against the spread.

you bet on NBA then

I bet on everything if I have some info to make a prediction.