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#1
I tried this morning to use Bill James formula to compute the chances of winning of teams playing NHL games.
Here are the winning percentages (projected):
WAS 32.5% @ BOS 67.5%
CAR 43.2% @ NYR 56.8%
DET 49.7% @ CBJ 50.3%
NJD 53.5% @ OTT 46.5%
MON 50% @ TAM 50%
PHI 46.8% @ FLO 53.2%
TOR 38.9% @ MIN 61.1%
ATL 47.1% @ DAL 52.9%
SJS 49.7% @ COL 50.3%
BUF 56.5% @ EDM 43.5% (surprise!!!)
ANA 46.2% @ PHO 53.8%
The teams that had chances over 55% are highlighted in red. God, why didn't I compute those yesterday???
NBA games
SAC 43.4% @ CLE 56.6%
IND 45.9% @ ORL 54.1%
DEN 51.5% @ MEM 48.5%
SAS 47.9% @ UTA 52.1%
CHA 46.3% @ LAL 53.7%
So for the NBA only the Bucks had more than 55% chances to win but they where far away from covering -13.5. I think a team at home with chances of 56% could cover -3.5. I don't know exactly how to transform the chances into spread.
Theoretically, no favourite was supposed to cover the spread (???).
Any thoughts?
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