Cherepovec 56.1% - Torpedo NN 43.9% 3-4
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 58.3% - Atlant Mytishi 41.7% 5-1
Vaasan Sport 62.7% - Hokki Kajaani 37.3% 3-2
Jukurit Mikkeli 60.7% - KooKoo Kouvoula 39.3% 3-4
TuTo Turku 67.3% - D-Team Jyvaskyla 32.7% 7-3
Bjorkloven 68.2% -
Atalanta
AC Torino 78.1% - Reggina 21.9% 0-0
I found some data digged out by a guy named Jay Edgar who studied the NBA games ATS results for manny years and found some relation between the winning percentage of a team against the spread. He called these results "true moneyline".
Accordingly to his studies, for example, favourites of -3.5 won 61.4% of the games during the seasons he studied. So if my percentage computed for a team is 61.4% I assume that team will cover -3.5 and I'll take it as a good play if the spread set by the bookie is not bigger tha -3.5.
That's how I figured out the spreads for each percentage.
Take for example Boston: I computed a winning percentage of 87.9% for the straight win. In the data I have (from that Jay Edgar guy) a team with a winning chance of 87.9% should win by a difference of 12 points. But the line for Boston is -17.0, too big and I prefer to bet on Sacramento +17.0 because they have better chances.
The spreadline posted next to the favourite in ( ) is the "true line" and the lines made by the books you find them at your bookie or look at those from the covers NBA scoreboard, doesn't matter. Anyway, books lines change. When I computed those percentages, bos were -16 favs now thy're -17 but no doing so good... So the "true line" (after Jay Edgar) is the one in the brackets and it shows what spread should have that favourite in order to be a good bet at his percentage of winning I computed. But that percentage is the projected percentage based on the points for and points against and it only tries to convert into percentages the differences between teams points scored and points allowed.
That was a mistake:
I used for that the Pythagorean formula with exponent 2 wich is apropriate to baseball and hockey, but for basketball the exponent recommended is 14 or 16.5. Using the 16.5 exponent would meant Cleveland over 80% chances to win at home vs. Sacramento (that's straight win, moneyline).
So, on the moneyline, the only disappointment would be Houston.
And the NHL moneyline analysis:
.
NY Islanders 45.6% @
NBA
San Antonio 45.8% @ Phoenix 54.2%
Teams highlighted in red are supposed to win and it looks like it's going to be the night of the home favourites, since the only road favourite seems to be Chicago Blackhawks.
We'll see tomorrow!
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