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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    PROGRESSIVE CHASE STRATEGY

    «First Previous 123 ... 789
    toft33
    chaser15
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 25441
    Posts: 210
    «First Previous 123 ... 789
     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 11:44 AM ET #201

    Happy Fathers Day !


    Total balance: $2087.66


    6/19 Picks

    MINN v NYY - ML +137 (4 units)

    PHI v AZ - ML +131 (4 units)

    StL v TX - ML -137 (2 units)

    PITT v CHI - ML +140 (2 units)

    TB v SF - ML -133 (1 unit)


    Remaining balance: $1762.66


    6/19 Watchlist

    MINN - 5L

    PHI - 5L

    PITT - 4L

    StL - 4L

    TB - 3L

    DET - 2L

    CHW - 2L

    MILW - 2L

    NYM - 2L

    COL - 2L


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    Happy Fathers Day !


    Total balance: $2087.66


    6/19 Picks

    MINN v NYY - ML +137 (4 units)

    PHI v AZ - ML +131 (4 units)

    StL v TX - ML -137 (2 units)

    PITT v CHI - ML +140 (2 units)

    TB v SF - ML -133 (1 unit)


    Remaining balance: $1762.66


    6/19 Watchlist

    MINN - 5L

    PHI - 5L

    PITT - 4L

    StL - 4L

    TB - 3L

    DET - 2L

    CHW - 2L

    MILW - 2L

    NYM - 2L

    COL - 2L


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 20, 2016 - 11:27 AM ET #202

    So it's been a bad weekend. To the best of my knowledge, it's still called gambling. We dust ourselves off and get back on the horse.


    Total balance: $1762.66


    6/19 Results

    MINN v NYY - ML +137 (4 units) 

    PHI v AZ - ML +131 (4 units)

    StL v TX - ML -137 (2 units)

    PITT v CHI - ML +140 (2 units)

    TB v SF - ML -133 (1 unit)


    Remaining balance: $1999.66


    Reply
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    So it's been a bad weekend. To the best of my knowledge, it's still called gambling. We dust ourselves off and get back on the horse.


    Total balance: $1762.66


    6/19 Results

    MINN v NYY - ML +137 (4 units) 

    PHI v AZ - ML +131 (4 units)

    StL v TX - ML -137 (2 units)

    PITT v CHI - ML +140 (2 units)

    TB v SF - ML -133 (1 unit)


    Remaining balance: $1999.66


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 20, 2016 - 11:29 AM ET #203

    Total Balance: $1999.66


    6/20 Picks (Calling  an audible — minimum loss streak for wager now 4L; it all comes down to money management boys; maybe things revert to 3L in the future but for now we want to ensure we live to see another day)


    PHI v AZ - ML -115 (8 units)

    PITT v SF - ML +167 (4 units)

    StL v CHI - RL +1.5[-155] (4 units) —it ain’t sexy, but it’s the Cubs who are hotter than hell;  but StL ML+150 if you feel like shooting the moon.

    TB v  CLE - ML +114 (2 units)


    Remaining balance: $1549.66


    6/20 Watchlist

    PHI - 6L

    PITT - 5L

    StL - 5L

    TB - 4L

    DET - 3L

    CHW - 3L

    MILW - 3L

    NYM - 3L

    COL - 3L


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    Total Balance: $1999.66


    6/20 Picks (Calling  an audible — minimum loss streak for wager now 4L; it all comes down to money management boys; maybe things revert to 3L in the future but for now we want to ensure we live to see another day)


    PHI v AZ - ML -115 (8 units)

    PITT v SF - ML +167 (4 units)

    StL v CHI - RL +1.5[-155] (4 units) —it ain’t sexy, but it’s the Cubs who are hotter than hell;  but StL ML+150 if you feel like shooting the moon.

    TB v  CLE - ML +114 (2 units)


    Remaining balance: $1549.66


    6/20 Watchlist

    PHI - 6L

    PITT - 5L

    StL - 5L

    TB - 4L

    DET - 3L

    CHW - 3L

    MILW - 3L

    NYM - 3L

    COL - 3L


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 21, 2016 - 1:18 PM ET #204


    Total Balance: $1549.66


    6/20 Results

    PHI v AZ - ML -115 (8 units)

    PITT v SF - ML +167 (4 units) 

    StL v CHI - RL +1.5[-155] (4 units) 

    TB v  CLE - ML +114 (2 units)


    Remaining balance: $1983.66


    Reply
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    Total Balance: $1549.66


    6/20 Results

    PHI v AZ - ML -115 (8 units)

    PITT v SF - ML +167 (4 units) 

    StL v CHI - RL +1.5[-155] (4 units) 

    TB v  CLE - ML +114 (2 units)


    Remaining balance: $1983.66


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 21, 2016 - 1:19 PM ET #205

    Total Balance: $1983.66


    6/21 Picks

    PHI v MINN - ML+122 (16 units) 

    TB v CLE - ML+160 (4 units)


    Remaining balance: $1483.66


    6/21 Watchlist

    PHI - 7L

    TB - 5L

    MILW - 3L

    NYM - 3L


    Reply
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    Total Balance: $1983.66


    6/21 Picks

    PHI v MINN - ML+122 (16 units) 

    TB v CLE - ML+160 (4 units)


    Remaining balance: $1483.66


    6/21 Watchlist

    PHI - 7L

    TB - 5L

    MILW - 3L

    NYM - 3L


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 22, 2016 - 8:49 AM ET #206

    Total Balance: $1483.66


    Another audible - Numb3rz had it right with his original rules. Bet at 4L, make it progressive. IF THE FIRST BET IS A LOSS, THE NEXT BET SHOULD BE RUNLINE +1.5. Runilines not posted yet, so I will post picks when they are.


    Since I’ve had a bad run at it for a few days now, I am going to make my first bet against a minimum streak of 5L, but I will post the watch list. As for the Phillies, and only speaking for myself, I have to cut my losses. If you have the bankroll, you can choose to go 32 units on the Phillies, RL+1.5. The watch list will be teams with 3L or more. But today, I stand up and say “STEM the BLEEDING, Damnit!!!” I can’t afford the Phillies right now. Not telling YOU what to risk, though. That’s your business. Again, not sure if anybody is following this thread, but I appreciate that the haters are mute. Sorry for the Monologue.


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    Total Balance: $1483.66


    Another audible - Numb3rz had it right with his original rules. Bet at 4L, make it progressive. IF THE FIRST BET IS A LOSS, THE NEXT BET SHOULD BE RUNLINE +1.5. Runilines not posted yet, so I will post picks when they are.


    Since I’ve had a bad run at it for a few days now, I am going to make my first bet against a minimum streak of 5L, but I will post the watch list. As for the Phillies, and only speaking for myself, I have to cut my losses. If you have the bankroll, you can choose to go 32 units on the Phillies, RL+1.5. The watch list will be teams with 3L or more. But today, I stand up and say “STEM the BLEEDING, Damnit!!!” I can’t afford the Phillies right now. Not telling YOU what to risk, though. That’s your business. Again, not sure if anybody is following this thread, but I appreciate that the haters are mute. Sorry for the Monologue.


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 22, 2016 - 11:05 AM ET #207

    6/22 Picks

    TB v CLE - [RL+1.5](-190) (8 units)

    PHI v MINN - [RL+1.5](-130)(32 units) - I won’t enter the bet, but it’s out there if you choose…So my balance will only reflect outcome of Tampa Bay Game.


    6/22 Watchlist

    TOR - 3L

    SEA - 4L

    MILW - 4L

    WASH - 4L

    TB - 6L

    PHI - 8L


    Remaining Balance: $1283.66


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    6/22 Picks

    TB v CLE - [RL+1.5](-190) (8 units)

    PHI v MINN - [RL+1.5](-130)(32 units) - I won’t enter the bet, but it’s out there if you choose…So my balance will only reflect outcome of Tampa Bay Game.


    6/22 Watchlist

    TOR - 3L

    SEA - 4L

    MILW - 4L

    WASH - 4L

    TB - 6L

    PHI - 8L


    Remaining Balance: $1283.66


     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Jun. 23, 2016 - 12:18 PM ET #208

    Ok - so my bankroll is way down from this system. Numb3rz made it work for him. For me, it's become futile. Doesn't mean it's a bad system. Just means I can not tolerate the volatility. I'm out - the frustration is really clouding my head and I have a family. What have I learned:

    1. Even if the stats are there for you to see in the forum and they look good, STILL BACKTEST the system for at least 3 years and get an idea of what kind of bankroll and unit amount you need.

    2. Don't change the rules like I did. I noticed a trend toward 3L streaks being snapped, so that's where I started. For myself - I should only start the chase at 5L. That means you may not have action every day.

    3. I used to handicap and bet on systems that I formulated myself. It is a ton of work, but the stats don't lie. There are trends out there just waiting to be discovered. Test your theories. some work. some don't.

    4. Money lost is an investment in knowledge/experience. This system haunted me. The money lost taught me to stay away - it screamed at me.

    5. This betting stuff ain't for everyone. If you find yourself walking around frustrated, short-fuse, less hungry/more hungry, less horny/more horny -- if you are honest with yourself and notice real differences between your ears, good chance it's the gambling.

    Ciao - good luck. Thanks for avoiding the hate. 


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    Ok - so my bankroll is way down from this system. Numb3rz made it work for him. For me, it's become futile. Doesn't mean it's a bad system. Just means I can not tolerate the volatility. I'm out - the frustration is really clouding my head and I have a family. What have I learned:

    1. Even if the stats are there for you to see in the forum and they look good, STILL BACKTEST the system for at least 3 years and get an idea of what kind of bankroll and unit amount you need.

    2. Don't change the rules like I did. I noticed a trend toward 3L streaks being snapped, so that's where I started. For myself - I should only start the chase at 5L. That means you may not have action every day.

    3. I used to handicap and bet on systems that I formulated myself. It is a ton of work, but the stats don't lie. There are trends out there just waiting to be discovered. Test your theories. some work. some don't.

    4. Money lost is an investment in knowledge/experience. This system haunted me. The money lost taught me to stay away - it screamed at me.

    5. This betting stuff ain't for everyone. If you find yourself walking around frustrated, short-fuse, less hungry/more hungry, less horny/more horny -- if you are honest with yourself and notice real differences between your ears, good chance it's the gambling.

    Ciao - good luck. Thanks for avoiding the hate. 


     
    chaser15
    chaser15
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2014
    Posts: 1692
    Posted: Jun. 23, 2016 - 12:41 PM ET #209

    Toft, Instead of moving the bar up and down unilaterally from 3, to 4, to 5 losses, why not apply more relevant streaking criteria to this system? Maybe you should stop playing to just end the losing streaks of “all” teams, and leave the losing teams (which, coincidentally are the ones that have bitten you) out. Consider breaking “winning streaks” by losing teams, and “losing streaks” by winning teams. If a team wins, say 45% or less of their games, wouldn’t it make more sense to fade them after a 4 game winning streak (something that is rare for them)?  And, conversely, if a team that wins 55% or more of their games goes on a 4 game losing streak (a rare streak for them), would it not be a safer bet to play “on” them to break that streak? When the Phillies, Reds, or Rays (all losing teams) go on an extended slump, it’s not that unlikely. However, when the Nationals (a winning team) does, that to me would be more relevant. For a little perspective, let’s take the following teams into consideration: Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers, and Phillies. Which of these teams are most likely to go on an 8-game losing streak? Which are more likely to win 8 in-a-row? Which are least likely to win 8 in-a-row? Their ability to win, and lose should provide the most evidence for which streaks they are most-likely, and least-likely to maintain, and therefore, which are relevant.

    Also, I would highly encourage you to set a cap on how deep the chase goes (maybe no more than 4 games), as some of these streaks can extend well beyond what a bankroll can endure. Try setting your parameters for winning teams @ 55% and higher, losing teams @ 45% and lower, and limit your chase to 4 games. I use these parameters for hockey (successfully) and find they translate well to MLB also.  GL to you, and remember…it’s a grind!

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    Toft, Instead of moving the bar up and down unilaterally from 3, to 4, to 5 losses, why not apply more relevant streaking criteria to this system? Maybe you should stop playing to just end the losing streaks of “all” teams, and leave the losing teams (which, coincidentally are the ones that have bitten you) out. Consider breaking “winning streaks” by losing teams, and “losing streaks” by winning teams. If a team wins, say 45% or less of their games, wouldn’t it make more sense to fade them after a 4 game winning streak (something that is rare for them)?  And, conversely, if a team that wins 55% or more of their games goes on a 4 game losing streak (a rare streak for them), would it not be a safer bet to play “on” them to break that streak? When the Phillies, Reds, or Rays (all losing teams) go on an extended slump, it’s not that unlikely. However, when the Nationals (a winning team) does, that to me would be more relevant. For a little perspective, let’s take the following teams into consideration: Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers, and Phillies. Which of these teams are most likely to go on an 8-game losing streak? Which are more likely to win 8 in-a-row? Which are least likely to win 8 in-a-row? Their ability to win, and lose should provide the most evidence for which streaks they are most-likely, and least-likely to maintain, and therefore, which are relevant.

    Also, I would highly encourage you to set a cap on how deep the chase goes (maybe no more than 4 games), as some of these streaks can extend well beyond what a bankroll can endure. Try setting your parameters for winning teams @ 55% and higher, losing teams @ 45% and lower, and limit your chase to 4 games. I use these parameters for hockey (successfully) and find they translate well to MLB also.  GL to you, and remember…it’s a grind!

     
     
    toft33
    toft33
    Prospect
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    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 443
    Posted: Aug. 15, 2016 - 8:33 AM ET #210

    Thanks for the thoughts Chaser15. All very good points and suggestions. yes, putting a floor on the chase depth is the way to go. In my case, it was to "give up" which is probably not the cool way to go in this forum.

    Fortunately, I made it all back when I picked the Djokovic
     choke in Wimbledon. Pure Luck. And now, I've got a good MLB strategy going with a "cap the capper" method. Holy Moly! It IS a grind! Tons of data, tons of spread-sheet manipulation, tons of time. But I have a pretty good, not great, but pretty good system now for knowing a good pick, a good fade and the right pass on a daily basis. Will hopefully start posting picks in the MLB forum cuz I don't know how I would explain the strategy in less than 500 words.

    Thanks again.




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    Thanks for the thoughts Chaser15. All very good points and suggestions. yes, putting a floor on the chase depth is the way to go. In my case, it was to "give up" which is probably not the cool way to go in this forum.

    Fortunately, I made it all back when I picked the Djokovic
     choke in Wimbledon. Pure Luck. And now, I've got a good MLB strategy going with a "cap the capper" method. Holy Moly! It IS a grind! Tons of data, tons of spread-sheet manipulation, tons of time. But I have a pretty good, not great, but pretty good system now for knowing a good pick, a good fade and the right pass on a daily basis. Will hopefully start posting picks in the MLB forum cuz I don't know how I would explain the strategy in less than 500 words.

    Thanks again.




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