Post All-Star Home System

 

A lot of these games are going to have high juice, because you are betting on good teams at home.  It would only be profitable if the overwhelming majority of games hit on the first game.  It would be more profitable to play the games with the guidelines of the system.

This thread got me thinking about fading bad teams on road trips post ASB. I did a little backtracking with the following filters:

 - .435 or worse win % at break

- at least a 5 game road trip

- Chase up to 5 games

 - if a fave, take the RL

Record for 6 years, 2007-2012 seasons:

172-0. Only 9 series went to a 4th game and only 1 of those to a 5th game. So 94.7% won in the first 3 games. 25 of the wins were on game 3, meaning 138 won on game 1 or 2 (80%).

I did not go beyond 2007 yet, but I will. I also did not check double dipping if there was still 5 games left after a win. I can do that later, but was more concerned with win and move on.

 

 

 

Ok, I just went back and added 2006 plus the double dip chases. Note: A quick scan of 2005 had 2 losses.

Record for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons: 190-0

95.3% won in the first 3 games. 81% on games 1 and 2.

 Double Dip

Record for 7 years, 2006-2012 seasons: 263-2

226 wins on the first two games - 85.3%

92.4 % within forst 3 games.

The two losses make this a little tricky. I'd only bet the double dip on a labby line. Losing a 5 game chase would kill a bankroll.

I will track this and post on a new thread post all-star break.

Good stuff!

Have you looked at the -1.5 runline (or ML for if system team is favorite)?

The double dips are in addition to the regular one and done numbers of 190-0.

Have not looked at all at -1.5 RL. I'll check it out, but I know the numbers won't be good for the double dip.  We will also get some losses on the regular chase.

Dan, how do you do your backchecking, queries? I found a loss 2008 with COL on series start 8/15. I also found 2 "E" wins and as far as double dipping, unless you restart the chase after 1st win for another 5 games there was 10 losses minimum and 11 "E" wins minimum

 

I don't see anywhere where it says to take the dog on the RL.

Dan, do you play these all the way to season's end?

My back testing was to season end. When I start the fade thread it will only be one and done, no double dip. Too many D and E games. 

New to the thread, read some of the earlier posts, but what I am not getting is this chase. So you lay a ton of juice on the ML for a home team for Game 1 and then what happens if they lose? You gotta double up the next night and lay almost $500 for $200???

How many units loss to this 5 gm loss? I know what I got.

-180

-165

-170

-150

-145

I come up with 121.7 units if this was a 5 game loss.

When I do the fade system or the system CKP runs, I'm not doing a Martingale chase. In CKP's system there weren't too many game 4's but if there is, that has the potential to be a huge bet. More game 4 and 5's in the fade system for sure.

What I'll do is something like this. Say there are 30 series plays in CKP's system and I want to make $50 a series. I'll have the number 50 on my spreadsheet 30 times. If there is a A game win, I delete one of the 50. If there is a loss, I take that amount and spread it out over a few of the remaining 50s. Will try to keep bets at a max of $100 x odds. Since a large % hit on games 1-3 this should work well. When a winner hits, delete the number bet and you'll end up clearing all bets if all series win. Think of it as one big labby line without adding numbers to the end of the line (modifed aggressive labby line).

I like this method for a set number of series system like this because even if there is 1 loss, you don't get wiped out for 121 units or more.

Question for CKP: What was the most number of teams that you had qualify for this system in a single season?

I show 6 that already will qualify with 5 still having a chance.

Bos, Oak, Tex, TB, Pitt, STL will all be at least 10 games over .500.

Atl (yet to play today) 52-39 with 4 games to go. Need to win 1.

Det (with loss today) 50-41 with 3 games to go. Need to go 2-1

NYY (with win today) 50-42 with 3 games to go. Need to go 3-0.

Balt  (yet to play today)  50-42 with 4 games left. Need to go 3-1.

Cincy (yet to play today) 51-40 with 4 games left. Need to go 2-2.

 

I don't know if this was asked in a previous post but did anyone notice what the results would be if the chase was stopped after 3 games. Would it still turn a profit?

Don't have on my spreadsheet the most teams in a single season. The most plays in a season came in 2001, a 45-0 record that year. Last season was relatively slow with 23 plays with 5 teams.   Many more teams qualifying this season.

If this was a 3-game chase, the record would be 438-13. Only 4 times has reached a Game 4 in the last five years.

One thing that bothers me about this system. What happens once a team clinches a solid playoff spot? Do we stop betting on that team? Pitchers take extra rest, veterans take more days off rookies get more playing time...

Hey remember I have addendums to this system that added a couple hundred wins past few years but your plates are probably full right now! I also am almost ready to unveil another 100 unit a year system.