Posted:
#51
One more thing (sorry for multiple posts)...
In your Sportsdatabase queries, you can use today-35 and today-55 instead of the symbols, >= and <=.
(less work)
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Over under betting system
Posted:
#52
I must not have explained myself very well, I'm sorry...I understand what overs and unders are been in on this racket for a long while and found your numbers interesting, problem is that when I am entering the formula it is giving me this in response:
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@BenchCoach:
Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do. When you look at the upper left you got to move your eyes to the second line which starts with
'OU' which means 'over/under'. The next numbers are the relevant ones. For the O's you get '9-9-0', meaning 9 over, 9 under, 0 push.
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Posted:
#53
I must not have explained myself very well, I'm sorry...I understand what overs and unders are been in on this racket for a long while and found your numbers interesting, problem is that when I am entering the formula it is giving me this in response:
| ||||||||||
@BenchCoach:
Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do. When you look at the upper left you got to move your eyes to the second line which starts with
'OU' which means 'over/under'. The next numbers are the relevant ones. For the O's you get '9-9-0', meaning 9 over, 9 under, 0 push.
[/Quote]0
Posted:
#55
Thanks guys. I didn't know the thing with the 'today-x' CanisMajor posted for sportsdb queries. That's a nice hint.
CanisMajor, you were right. In fact I was mowing our big lawn yesterday and forgot to post 3 other bets. which I had planed to do afterwards. I did go 2-2 yesterday instead of 0-1.
Here is the spreadsheet for yesterday with all possible bets, the games with starters with less than 5 runs are already deleted from it: https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g1vbbzd3zj4h.png
The green ones would have been bets (as far as meeting the other criterias, which they did yesterday).
Don't know what my brain was doing and why I forgot it, sorry. Maybe it was dried out from working in the sun for so long.
The other bets would have been:
CIN @ WSH, u 7.0, +107
PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, -109
CHS @ KCR, o 8.0, -114
I would have been more or less even, but as I was too dumb to post the picks I won't include them to my stats in my next post. Sorry guys.
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by wudl83:
2014-05-21
2014-05-21
OAK @ TBR, o 7.5, -107 
3-2
3-2Yesterday: 0 w, 1 l, 0 p, -1 u
Overall: 13 w, 7 l, 2 p, +5.82 u
As I said I only include what I have posted. Everything else would be bad manner. If you want to I could upload a screenshot on my calcs for the next bets so you can compare if our numbers match?
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Posted:
#58
Using CanisMajor's hint really makes it much more easier to query, thanks. Still learning all possibilities the query system offers. I think sportsdatabase can be a very useful tool.
Calculations:
https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g2ts32sx5wxu.png
Picks:
2014-05-22
PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, +113
SFG @ COL, u 9.5, +103
LAD @ NYM, u 6.5, +109
MIL @ ATL, u 7.0, +101
ARI @ STL, u 7.5, -109
HOU @ SEA, u 7.5, -117
Let's hope the pitching gets it done!
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:
i'd appreciate seeing your spreadsheet, if you don't mind. i was also wondering which book you use? you always get way better odds than i do here in vegas. thanks! hopefully this rough patch gets better soon...
Calculations will be uploaded from now on as you can see in post #58.i'd appreciate seeing your spreadsheet, if you don't mind. i was also wondering which book you use? you always get way better odds than i do here in vegas. thanks! hopefully this rough patch gets better soon...
As in the line next to my username above the posts you can see my sportsbook. I am using pinnacle. It doesn't raise any taxes and has the best numbers available over here in europe.
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Posted:
#60
wudl,
Great job on coming up with the system. You have convinced me that the recent team/pitcher results are better than using the season to date results.
I do see something in your spreadsheet from yesterday that does not add up for me. We agree on all plays except the CIN/WAS play. On that play I see O=21, U=27 = 48 27/48 = .5625 but your spreadsheet shows .5961...
Either I am missing something or there might be a flaw in the the formula that you have entered in that cell.
Canis
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Posted:
#61
Wudl83,
Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.
I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.
One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate. Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under. Any way to work that into the system?
Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?
Thanks again for sharing.
Pat
Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.
I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.
One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate. Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under. Any way to work that into the system?
Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?
Thanks again for sharing.
Pat
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Posted:
#62
You got to add the pushes to the overs as well as to the unders before dividing them through the sum of the overs+unders+pushes.
In case of the Nats game:
- overs: (21+4)/(21+27+4)
- unders: (27+4)/(21+27+4)
I am not at home right now and can't look into my Excelsheet but I think this could be the problem, right?
I don't want to promise too much, but as I said yesterday I still played around with the backtesting and changed some criterias here and there. It may very well be that I have found something like a whole when betting on overs and unders. This would be the easiest system on earth if the backtest continues to show the numbers it shows me right now. Like I said I don't want to promise anything, but IF the trend goes on I could have found a system with a win pct of .60 or more. And all you need would be a few very easy criterias and only 6 numbers. But let's wait and see. :)
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by Buford1:
Wudl83,
Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.
I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.
One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate. Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under. Any way to work that into the system?
Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?
Thanks again for sharing.
Pat
Thx. Wudl83,
Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with.
I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless.
One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate. Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under. Any way to work that into the system?
Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet?
Thanks again for sharing.
Pat
Hm - I think we really could include this in the system somehow. The only problem I have with things like these is that I want to keep it as simple as possible. I know that you are right, indeed you are! Some umpires show trends as well as teams or pitchers do. But the more variables or numbers I add the more prone to failure the system will become IMO. This is because of the case that different information HAVE to be weighed different. One variable is more important than another. The more variables (or numbers) the more work one has to do. If set up properly I think a system including umpire trends or even other stats would be very very solid. But as I said, the problem will be to weight the different stats/numbers accurately.
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by BenchCoach:
Plays today?
Plays today?
I can't speak for wudl so these are not HIS plays but using his formula, I come up with:
MIL@MIA o7
BOS@TB o7.5
I do not calculate my Under % the same as wudl as I do not average the under using pushes since an under bet can never push.
https://tinypic.com/r/a2u9fd/8
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by BenchCoach:
Really like your link, thanks for posting...explain to me this theory on not being able to get a push when you are playing an under?
Really like your link, thanks for posting...explain to me this theory on not being able to get a push when you are playing an under?
If I have this wrong, somebody please correct me.
Lets say the line is 7 and you bet the under and I bet the over.
The final score is 3-4 hitting the total of 7. Your bet, under 7, already busted when the 7th run scored. My over bet is a push and gets refunded because I landed on the line of 7.
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Posted:
#74
Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor:
If I have this wrong, somebody please correct me.
Lets say the line is 7 and you bet the under and I bet the over.
The final score is 3-4 hitting the total of 7. Your bet, under 7, already busted when the 7th run scored. My over bet is a push and gets refunded because I landed on the line of 7.
You need a new bookie!!
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Posted:
#75
Well, I think I need to ask my buddy who explained it to me while I was making the spreadsheet.
It is interesting that if you look at the pitchers stats on Covers, all the pushes get added to the number of overs he's pitched in.
If he is 4-3-2 on the over under (via sports db), Covers shows him as 6-3.
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