Posted:
#1
Okay. I did some backtesting and I think it could work, at least the test showed profits over the past.
After my latest system did not work as I wanted and it was too time consuming, I took a break over the weekend and sat down and was thinking about a system which matches the following criterias:
1) No chase system since I tend to get too emotional with it.
2) Statistical base and the system tells me what to pick.
3) Backtesting shows profits.
4) No emotions or my mind are involved.
5) No need to look at names. Every name or team is treated equal.
6) A clear direction for what to pick.
I did a ton of queries at sportsdatabase over the weekend and multiple hours of backtesting. In the end I came up with a simple but apparently profitable system on over/under bets. I was surprised about the results from the backtesting but I hope those numbers don't lie.
How does it work?
In detail:
As I said it's quite simple. I basically look at the recent over/under stats for the opponents of a game. Then I look at the recent over/under stats for the starting pitchers of the game. I sum the numbers up and if the numbers point clearly towards one direction I will bet on over/under regardless what the exact total or odd is offered by my bookie (Pinnacle).
In detail:
To give you some insight I simply take yesterday's games which would have been picked.
1) DET @ BAL:
- DET recent away: 6 o, 6 u
- BAL recent home: 4 o, 11 u, 1 p
- Porcello recent overall (later in the season when the starters have enough starts I will use splits for that, too): 3 o, 3 u
- Norris recent overall: 2 o, 5 u, 1 p
- overall: 15 o, 25 u, 1 p
- pct: 0.39 o, 0.63 u (I take the pushes for both the over AND the under into account)
- pick: 1u on under
- pinnacle: total line 9.0 for -123
- result 4-1, +0.81
2) LAA @ TOR:
- LAA recent away: 9 o, 9 u
- TOR recent home: 11 o, 5 u, 1 p
- Wilson recent overall: 4 o, 3 u
- Buehrle recent overall: 3 o, 3 u, 1 p
- overall: 27 o, 20 u, 2 p
- pct: 0.59 o, 0.45 u
- pick: 1u on over
- pinnacle: total line 9.0 for -116
- result 3-7, +0.86
3) WSH @ ARI
- overall: 27 o, 14 u, 6 p
- pct: 0.70 o, 0.42 u
- pick: 1u on over
- pinnacle: total line 8.0 for +101
- result: 6-5, +1.01
4) MIA @ LAD
- overall: 27 o, 19 u, 3 p
- pct: 0.61 o, 0.45 u
- pick: 1u on over
- pinnacle: total line 7.0 for -137
- result: 5-6, +0.73
I don't want to trick or fool you. Of course you don't win every bet with this system and you will win some and lose some. Days like yesterday are extremely lucky.
But my backtesting of 600 games in different months from 2010-2014 (130 games in each year from 2010-2013 and 80 games of 2014) have shown me a win pct of 0.56-0.57 on average. If I can continue this win pct it should show profit with average odds of about -115. Could come up with a ROI of about 0.05.
To be honest and as I said I was really surprised how well it worked out at my backtesting. I will give it a shot definately and hope that the results were no coincedence (which I don't assume because 600 games shouldn't be insufficient).
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