OOOUUU Chase System for the NFL Thread

There is a thread already made for college football based on this same system. Thank you to neilsy25 who started that thread and has had great success.

I plan on starting the NFL version of this chase in Week 4 of the season which begins Sunday Oct 3, 2010.

I went back and checked the numbers for every NFL team over the last 4 years beginning in week 4 and over all of that time there were only 3 teams that did not satisfy the chase:

Phi Eagles in 07-08 UUUOOO,U

Was Redskins in 09-10 UUUOOO,U

Ari Cardinals in 09-10 UUUOOO,U

Those were the only times in 4 years where the chase would not have worked. In 2009-2010 you had two teams that did not satisfy but as you can see once those teams played that 6 game pattern, all 3 played the next game Under the total.

The chase only went to the 6th game once, and to the 5th game twice.

Only the NFC East and NFC West had losers in this system. All teams in other Conferences satsified the system.

Any comments about how to make this profitable would be great. Also how you would raise your bets each week or how to avoid losing everything I've made if one team doesnt meet the system.

Questions are welcome and I am excited to start this project. I hope you will jump on board with me and see if we can make this thing really sharp.

So are you saying, if a team is UUU, then they win the over one of the next 3 weeks?

Jokeheads: No. You bet the Over for every team for the first three games. If one of those games goes over then you are finished with that team for the season. If that teams plays 3 straight Unders then you bet the next 3 to go under as well. Like I said, the numbers I looked at only went to the 5th week of the chase twice and 6th week once.

How many teams did the OOO pattern occur with in the past 4 years?

Sorry, I meant UUU

Well the 3 I listed above that did not satisfy the chase went UUU.

Denver in 2006 went UUU and then cashed in the 6th week of the chase.
Baltimore in 2007 went UUU and cashed in the 5th week of the chase.
Carolina in 2007 and 2008 played UUU but cashed the very next week with an Under.
Houston in 2006 and 2009 went UUU but both years cashed in the 5th week of the chase.

So 6 times in 4 years a team has gone UUU (2 of those times being losers and the other 4 being winners.

I'd advise against that bet, then.

6 times you win 1 unit
3 times you lose 7 units
6-21...not very good.

What teams are left since we're already going into week 4? You would be in effect missing out on 3 straight losses at this point if there are still teams left.

I ran the numbers to start Week 4. This coming Sunday. So all teams would be a play Sunday.

 

I'm confused

Okay. Go to the Systems Forum and find the Thread by neisly titled NCAA 6 game chase. This is the same idea but with the NFL and beginning in week 4! Once I start posting the picks I hope that will clear it up.

bwcareer,

How will you handle pushes and the bye weeks with this system? There is the potential that you would need one team to go over and the other to go under at some point. An example of this occurred last week with U of Missouri going against Miami (O). Makes it tough if you have chased two teams and suddenly they face each other with no chance of winning because of this conflict.

The original system starting from week one has two remaining teams: Minnesota and GB. The first week was a nightmare: 8 O, 22 U and 2 Pushes. Week two was 14 O and 10 U=plus approx.7 units. Week three (last week) is where one made the money. 8 O and 2 U : plus approx. 25 units. Chasing the last two teams will take some guts. Laying 10+ units on each team to win one unit each. Tough call. Pray that you win both as week 5 (21 units) and week 6 (45 units) will test any player's makeup. In theory, the system appears to be a good one. The potential of having 2 teams in week six would make it very uncomfortable.

I would avoid week one in this system. This year it proved to be a good move. My research has shown recent years week one is too risky.

Good luck with your new twist to this system.

based on the stats for the past years, this system wouldve been a loser.

and also, what signifigance does the 7th game have? betting that game after OOOUUU occurs doesnt seem to be part of the chase to begin with, yet you pointed out that the 7th game went under for 2 of the losers.

why would all teams be a play sunday? what about teams that didnt go OOO the first three games? how would they be a play

BW is starting the system this sunday. He is not looking at the teams previous 3 games totals

ok. ez enuf. lets lay sum cash. 

alright "bettor" let's do this.

Here is how it will work. For each game you will basically have two bets, one for each team. EX. Den-Ten o43. I will lay 11 to win 10 on Den and 11 to 10 on Ten to go over the game total of 43. If that game goes over then those 2 teams are done with the chase and I get returned $20, if I lose I am down $22 and I chase both of those teams next week.

Luckydan makes a good point about having bye weeks causing some problems but we will deal with that if/when we have to.

Along with BYE weeks PUSHES will be treated like that game never happened. If a PUSH happens in the first week then those two teams begin Week 1 with their next game.

If you want to follow then please do but lets just stay positive in the thread. I dont need any bashing or trash talk or saying how stupid I am. If you dont have anything good to say just write it in your journal so you feel better.

Here goes nothing.

Byes- DAL,KC,MIN,TB

Den-Ten o43  22/20

Bal-Pit o34.5  22/20

Cle-Cin o37.5  22/20

Det-GB o45.5  22/20

Car-NO o44.5  22/20

SF-Atl o42.5  22/20

NYJ-Buf o36.5  22/20

IND-Jac o46  22/20

Hou-Oak o43.5  22/20

Ari-SD o45.5  22/20

Was-Phi o42.5  22/20

Chi-NYG o44  22/20

NE-Mia o46.5  22/20

Wish me luck or wish me nothing at all! Hope I can put some cash in my pocket!

Missed one:

Sea-Stl o40  22/20

 

 

bw, why not treat a push like a win instead of pressing your luck? idk what the past trends are like, just a blurb here and there from what i have read, but if teams push wouldnt that throw the trend off? 

Recap so far with the Monday night game pending:

Den-Ten o43  22/20   (W)  +20

Bal-Pit o34.5  22/20  (L)  -22

Cle-Cin o37.5  22/20  (W)  +20

Det-GB o45.5  22/20  (W)  +20

Car-NO o44.5  22/20  (L)  -22

SF-Atl o42.5  22/20   (L)  -22

NYJ-Buf o36.5  22/20  (W)  +20

IND-Jac o46  22/20  (W)  +20

Hou-Oak o43.5  22/20  (W)  +20

Ari-SD o45.5  22/20  (W)  +20

Was-Phi o42.5  22/20  (L)  -22

Chi-NYG o44  22/20  (L)  -22

Sea-Stl o40  22/20  (L)  -22

NE-Mia o46.5  22/20  (pending)

(7-6) +$8

Teams that are done with the chase: DEN, TEN, CLE, CIN, DET, GB, NYJ, BUF, IND, JAC, HOU, OAK, ARI, SD

Teams that begin week 1 chase next week: DAL, MIN, KC, TB

Teams that begin week 2 chase next week: BAL, PIT, CAR, NO, SF, ATL, SEA, STL, WAS, PHI, CHI, NYG

This is how we will go into next week and of course the Monday game tonight with NE- MIA. When that game is over I will post where they will go.

Started just about the way I thought. Now next week we get to up the units and try to make some cash. Hope everyone did well with their bets this weekend.

NE-Mia o46.5  22/20  (W)  +20

Week 1 record (8-6) +28

Here is how we stand:

Teams that are done with the chase: DEN, TEN, CLE, CIN, DET, GB, NYJ, BUF, IND, JAC, HOU, OAK, ARI, SD, NE, MIA

Teams that begin week 1 chase this week: DAL, MIN, KC, TB

Teams that begin week 2 chase this week: BAL, PIT, CAR, NO, SF, ATL, SEA, STL, WAS, PHI, CHI, NYG

Lets get to work:

Teams with byes that will continue Week 2 chase next week: PIT, SEA

Week 1 Chase:

DAL-Ten  o42  11/10

MIN-Nyj  o37.5  11/10

KC-Ind  o44  11/10

TB-Cin  o38  11/10

Week 2 Chase:

BAL-Den  o38.5  28/25

CAR-CHI  o36  55/50

NO-Ari  o45.5  28/25

SF-PHI o38  55/50

ATL-Cle  o41  28/25

STL-Det  o42.5  28/25

WAS-Gb  o44  28/25

NYG-Hou  o47.5  28/25

BOL this week and next weekend with your bets!

Week 1 Record (8-6) +$28    NFL WEEK 4

Week 2 Record (6-5) -$5      NFL WEEK 5

Week 1 Chase:

DAL-Ten  o42  11/10  (W)  +$10

MIN-Nyj  o37.5  11/10 (pending)

KC-Ind  o44  11/10  (L)  -$11

TB-Cin  o38  11/10  (W)  +$10

Week 2 Chase:

BAL-Den  o38.5  28/25  (W)  +$25

CAR-CHI  o36  55/50  (L)  -$55

NO-Ari  o45.5  28/25  (W)  +$25

SF-PHI o38  55/50  (W)  +$50

ATL-Cle  o41  28/25  (L)  -$28

STL-Det  o42.5  28/25  (W)  +$25

WAS-Gb  o44  28/25  (L)  -$28

NYG-Hou  o47.5  28/25  (L)  -$28

 

Teams that are done with the chase: DEN, TEN, CLE, CIN, DET, GB, NYJ, BUF, IND, JAC, HOU, OAK, ARI, SD, NE, MIA, DAL, TB, BAL, NO, SF, PHI, STL

Teams that begin week 2 chase this week: KC, PIT, SEA

Teams that begin week 3 chase this week: CAR, CHI, ATL, WAS, NYG

 

We have a play tonight with MIN so after that game I will update the figures and will put up next weeks chase numbers. This is where we begin to sweat it out and have lots of units in play. Not near as much as if we make it to week 6! But we can do it!

Mn is a under play tonight (week 4) in the first 6 week system. They are the last team remaining since GB won yesterday.


GL